Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Blackpool vs Rochdale at 16 February 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 16 February 2021
Gillingham vs Peterboro at 16 February 2021
Ipswich vs Northampton at 16 February 2021
Doncaster vs Accrington at 17 February 2021
Wigan vs Hull at 17 February 2021
Blackpool vs Rochdale at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Rochdale for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Blackpool |
1.55 |
2.20 |
-19.1 |
|
Draw |
4.15 |
3.73 |
2.7 |
|
Rochdale |
5.85 |
3.62 |
10.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.11 |
-10.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.10 |
1.90 |
5.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rochdale, Under 2.5 (2.7 %, 10.5 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Blackpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Hull |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance as a guest.
Rochdale, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |
The form score for the Blackpool is 0.026 and for the Rochdale is -0.765.
The home dynamic for the Blackpool is 0.514 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rochdale is 0.068.
The offensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.016 and for the Rochdale is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackpool is 0.037 and for the Rochdale is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Rochdale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Blackpool |
22% |
35% |
26% |
18% |
|
Rochdale |
34% |
36% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.98 goals and Rochdale to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.39 goals and Rochdale to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.69 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.61 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.10 |
4.03 |
3.62 |
|
4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.29 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.76 |
3.67 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.61 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.77 |
3.08 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.65 |
4.28 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.29 |
3.77 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.87 |
3.57 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.66 |
3.91 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.47 |
3.34 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.60 |
2.97 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.47 |
3.28 |
Go to Top
Bristol Rvs vs Portsmouth at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bristol Rvs |
4.37 |
3.11 |
9.3 |
|
Draw |
3.67 |
3.94 |
-1.9 |
|
Portsmouth |
1.80 |
2.36 |
-13.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.92 |
0.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.08 |
-5.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (9.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance at home.
Bristol Rvs, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Hull |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Bristol Rvs is -0.609 and for the Portsmouth is 0.061.
The home dynamic for the Bristol Rvs is -0.733 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.928.
The offensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is -0.967 and for the Portsmouth is 0.288.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bristol Rvs is -0.037 and for the Portsmouth is -0.182.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bristol Rvs |
34% |
26% |
23% |
16% |
|
Portsmouth |
21% |
37% |
24% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 0.87 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Portsmouth to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.21 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.97 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.65 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.58 |
3.60 |
1.98 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.80 |
2.31 |
|
4+ goals |
2.80 |
3.22 |
3.01 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.79 |
4.07 |
2.52 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.58 |
3.60 |
1.98 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.12 |
2.41 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.62 |
2.85 |
2.31 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.80 |
3.22 |
3.01 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.23 |
4.30 |
2.18 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.85 |
3.40 |
|
No Goal |
3.48 |
6.81 |
1.77 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.00 |
2.76 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
6.81 |
1.84 |
Go to Top
Gillingham vs Peterboro at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Gillingham |
3.59 |
2.65 |
9.9 |
|
Draw |
3.42 |
3.82 |
-3.1 |
|
Peterboro |
2.05 |
2.78 |
-12.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.93 |
2.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.07 |
-7.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (9.9 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Gillingham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Gillingham is 0.539 and for the Peterboro is 0.409.
The home dynamic for the Gillingham is -0.295 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is -0.036.
The offensive ability for the Gillingham is 0.454 and for the Peterboro is 0.227.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gillingham is -0.604 and for the Peterboro is 0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Gillingham |
29% |
28% |
26% |
18% |
|
Peterboro |
24% |
37% |
24% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 0.97 goals and Peterboro to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Peterboro to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.32 goals and Peterboro to score 1.28 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.70 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.57 |
3.51 |
2.30 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.40 |
4.58 |
2.73 |
|
4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.14 |
3.55 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.93 |
2.98 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
3.51 |
2.30 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.00 |
2.80 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.75 |
2.75 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.14 |
3.55 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
4.15 |
2.57 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.81 |
3.76 |
|
No Goal |
2.64 |
6.57 |
2.13 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.02 |
3.02 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
6.57 |
2.15 |
Go to Top
Ipswich vs Northampton at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Ipswich and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Ipswich |
1.72 |
1.94 |
-6.6 |
|
Draw |
3.57 |
3.94 |
-2.6 |
|
Northampton |
5.06 |
4.35 |
3.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.08 |
0.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.93 |
-5.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance at home.
Ipswich, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Burton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Burton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Ipswich is -0.043 and for the Northampton is -0.974.
The home dynamic for the Ipswich is -0.01 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is -0.382.
The offensive ability for the Ipswich is 0.093 and for the Northampton is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ipswich is -0.07 and for the Northampton is -0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ipswich and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Ipswich |
18% |
34% |
28% |
20% |
|
Northampton |
38% |
35% |
16% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.6 goals and Northampton to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.85 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ipswich to score 1.5 goals and Northampton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Ipswich to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.80 |
|
1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.31 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |