# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 16 February 2021**** Colchester vs Tranmere at 16 February 2021**** Forest Green vs Oldham at 16 February 2021**** Harrogate vs Carlisle at 16 February 2021**** Newport County vs Exeter at 16 February 2021**** Salford vs Barrow at 16 February 2021**** Walsall vs Cheltenham at 16 February 2021**** Bradford vs Morecambe at 16 February 2021**** Mansfield vs Bolton at 17 February 2021**

###
Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
2.43 |
2.38 |
0.9 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.68 |
-4.5 |

Stevenage |
3.02 |
3.27 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.20 |
-0.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.83 |
-4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town (0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Crawley Town** is **0.104** and for the **Stevenage** is **-0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Crawley Town** is **0.076** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stevenage** is **-0.269.**

The offensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **0.454** and for the **Stevenage** is **-0.142.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.005** and for the **Stevenage** is **-0.209.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
27% |
30% |
28% |
14% |

Stevenage |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.25 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
4.45 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.59 |
2.99 |
3.58 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.88 |
3.46 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.25 |
2.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.32 |
3.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.72 |
3.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
2.99 |
3.58 |

Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.92 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.67 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.76 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.28 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.76 |
2.77 |

####
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###
Colchester vs Tranmere at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Colchester** and **Tranmere** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Colchester |
3.00 |
2.62 |
4.8 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.64 |
-2.8 |

Tranmere |
2.25 |
2.91 |
-10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.20 |
-4.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.83 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Colchester (4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** at home**.

Colchester,** at home**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** as a guest**.

Tranmere,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Colchester** is **-0.2** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.539.**

The home dynamic for the **Colchester** is **0.286** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Tranmere** is **0.365.**

The offensive ability for the **Colchester** is **-0.967** and for the **Tranmere** is **0.545.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Colchester** is **-0.005** and for the **Tranmere** is **-0.573.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Colchester** and the red line for guest team, **Tranmere. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Colchester |
29% |
32% |
25% |
13% |

Tranmere |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Colchester** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Tranmere** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.96 |
3.30 |
2.79 |

2-3 goals |
2.39 |
4.24 |
2.89 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
3.07 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.80 |
2.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
3.30 |
2.79 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.41 |
2.56 |

Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.67 |
3.26 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
3.07 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.83 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.65 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
5.74 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.34 |
2.67 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.74 |
2.57 |

####
Go to Top

###
Forest Green vs Oldham at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Forest Green** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Forest Green |
1.92 |
2.12 |
-4.9 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.76 |
-1.7 |

Oldham |
3.84 |
3.80 |
0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.05 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
1.95 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Forest Green** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Forest Green** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance** at home**.

Forest Green,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Forest Green scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Forest Green** is **0.261** and for the **Oldham** is **-0.13.**

The home dynamic for the **Forest Green** is **0.295** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Oldham** is **0.414.**

The offensive ability for the **Forest Green** is **0.454** and for the **Oldham** is **0.253.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Forest Green** is **0.037** and for the **Oldham** is **-0.664.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Forest Green** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Forest Green |
20% |
37% |
23% |
21% |

Oldham |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and the home team **Forest Green ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Forest Green** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Forest Green ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.11 |
3.91 |
3.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
3.77 |
3.64 |

4+ goals |
2.04 |
3.57 |
4.35 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.70 |
3.84 |

Un 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.91 |
3.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
7.25 |
3.24 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.58 |
4.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.57 |
4.35 |

Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.82 |
3.65 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.66 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
7.00 |
3.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.94 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
7.00 |
3.37 |

####
Go to Top

###
Harrogate vs Carlisle at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Carlisle** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
3.22 |
2.93 |
3.1 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.66 |
-3.0 |

Carlisle |
2.26 |
2.60 |
-5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.16 |
-1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.87 |
-4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Harrogate (3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Salford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** as a guest**.

Carlisle,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Harrogate** is **0.174** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Harrogate** is **-0.6** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Carlisle** is **0.036.**

The offensive ability for the **Harrogate** is **0.016** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.657.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Harrogate** is **-0.604** and for the **Carlisle** is **0.209.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Carlisle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
31% |
33% |
24% |
12% |

Carlisle |
27% |
36% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Carlisle** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |