2021 02 16 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 16 February 2021
Colchester vs Tranmere at 16 February 2021
Forest Green vs Oldham at 16 February 2021
Harrogate vs Carlisle at 16 February 2021
Newport County vs Exeter at 16 February 2021
Salford vs Barrow at 16 February 2021
Walsall vs Cheltenham at 16 February 2021
Bradford vs Morecambe at 16 February 2021
Mansfield vs Bolton at 17 February 2021


Crawley Town vs Stevenage at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

2.43

2.38

0.9

Draw

3.16

3.68

-4.5

Stevenage

3.02

3.27

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.17

2.20

-0.6

Under 2.5

1.70

1.83

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town (0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Harrogate

H

1

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Jan

Bolton

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

2

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Bradford

H

1

1

D

U

G


Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 28.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Exeter

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Tranmere

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Crawley Town is 0.104 and for the Stevenage is -0.2.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0.076 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stevenage is -0.269.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.454 and for the Stevenage is -0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is -0.005 and for the Stevenage is -0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

27%

30%

28%

14%

Stevenage

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.24 goals and Stevenage to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.3 goals and Stevenage to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.50

1

5.05

2-3

2.01

2

3.88

4+

4.65

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.50

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.25

2.86

2-3 goals

2.08

4.45

3.41

4+ goals

2.59

2.99

3.58

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.88

3.46

Un 1.5

2.92

3.25

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.95

6.32

3.03

Un 2.5

2.89

2.72

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.59

2.99

3.58

Un 3.5

2.32

3.92

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.67

4.03

No Goal

2.16

5.76

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.28

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.76

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Colchester vs Tranmere at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Colchester and Tranmere for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Colchester

3.00

2.62

4.8

Draw

3.30

3.64

-2.8

Tranmere

2.25

2.91

-10.1

Over 2.5

2.00

2.20

-4.5

Under 2.5

1.73

1.83

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Colchester (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance at home.
Colchester, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Mansfield

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Morecambe

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Southend

A

0

2

L

U

N


Tranmere in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance as a guest.
Tranmere, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Port Vale

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Morecambe

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Harrogate

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bolton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Forest Green

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Barrow

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Colchester is -0.2 and for the Tranmere is 0.539.
The home dynamic for the Colchester is 0.286 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tranmere is 0.365.
The offensive ability for the Colchester is -0.967 and for the Tranmere is 0.545.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Colchester is -0.005 and for the Tranmere is -0.573.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Colchester and the red line for guest team, Tranmere.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Colchester

29%

32%

25%

13%

Tranmere

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.07 goals and Tranmere to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Colchester to score 1.23 goals and Tranmere to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.45

1

4.95

2-3

2.03

2

3.92

4+

4.59

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.45

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

3.30

2.79

2-3 goals

2.39

4.24

2.89

4+ goals

2.87

3.07

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.80

2.95

Un 1.5

2.96

3.30

2.79

Ov 2.5

2.21

6.41

2.56

Un 2.5

3.13

2.67

3.26

Ov 3.5

2.87

3.07

3.07

Un 3.5

2.57

3.83

2.85

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.65

3.49

No Goal

2.36

5.74

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.34

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

5.74

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Forest Green vs Oldham at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Forest Green and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Forest Green

1.92

2.12

-4.9

Draw

3.53

3.76

-1.7

Oldham

3.84

3.80

0.3

Over 2.5

1.79

2.05

-7.1

Under 2.5

2.02

1.95

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Forest Green in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance at home.
Forest Green, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Carlisle

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Port Vale

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Crawley Town

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Exeter

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N


Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Newport County

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Mansfield

H

2

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

Newport County

A

4

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Forest Green is 0.261 and for the Oldham is -0.13.
The home dynamic for the Forest Green is 0.295 and the dynamic as a guest for the Oldham is 0.414.
The offensive ability for the Forest Green is 0.454 and for the Oldham is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Forest Green is 0.037 and for the Oldham is -0.664.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Forest Green and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Forest Green

20%

37%

23%

21%

Oldham

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.66 goals and Oldham to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.44 goals and Oldham to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.82

1

5.13

2-3

2.01

2

3.98

4+

4.18

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.91

3.69

2-3 goals

2.17

3.77

3.64

4+ goals

2.04

3.57

4.35

Ov 1.5

2.13

3.70

3.84

Un 1.5

2.11

3.91

3.69

Ov 2.5

1.81

7.25

3.24

Un 2.5

2.55

2.58

4.54

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.57

4.35

Un 3.5

2.15

3.82

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.66

4.02

No Goal

1.73

7.00

3.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.94

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

7.00

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Harrogate vs Carlisle at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Carlisle for League Two (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

3.22

2.93

3.1

Draw

3.30

3.66

-3.0

Carlisle

2.26

2.60

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.11

2.16

-1.1

Under 2.5

1.74

1.87

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Harrogate (3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Crawley Town

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Salford

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Exeter

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G


Carlisle in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance as a guest.
Carlisle, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Exeter

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Bolton

H

3

3

D

O

G

19 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stevenage

H

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Harrogate is 0.174 and for the Carlisle is 0.
The home dynamic for the Harrogate is -0.6 and the dynamic as a guest for the Carlisle is 0.036.
The offensive ability for the Harrogate is 0.016 and for the Carlisle is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Harrogate is -0.604 and for the Carlisle is 0.209.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Carlisle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

31%

33%

24%

12%

Carlisle

27%

36%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.03 goals and Carlisle to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.17 goals and Carlisle to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.55

1

5.03

2-3

2.04

2

3.95

4+

4.44

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.55

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-