Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Marseille vs Nice at 17 February 2021
Marseille vs Nice at 17 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Marseille |
2.31 |
2.40 |
-1.6 |
|
Draw |
3.38 |
3.61 |
-1.9 |
|
Nice |
3.15 |
3.26 |
-1.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
2.45 |
-7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.69 |
3.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Marseille in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Lens |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Brest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Marseille is -0.565 and for the Nice is -0.565.
The home dynamic for the Marseille is -0.114 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nice is 0.108.
The offensive ability for the Marseille is -0.563 and for the Nice is 0.313.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Marseille is -0.433 and for the Nice is -0.182.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Marseille |
29% |
33% |
28% |
10% |
|
Nice |
37% |
36% |
14% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.34 goals and Nice to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.2 goals and Nice to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.52 |
0-1 |
3.04 |
|
1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
5.43 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |
|
4 |
8.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.04 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
|
Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.43 |
|
NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.13 |
3.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.99 |
4.09 |
3.96 |
|
4+ goals |
3.61 |
3.47 |
2.30 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.90 |
3.31 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.13 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.70 |
2.50 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.64 |
2.64 |
4.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.61 |
3.47 |
2.30 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.64 |
3.59 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.63 |
3.60 |
|
No Goal |
2.10 |
5.21 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.30 |
2.65 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.21 |
3.28 |
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