2021 02 16 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Everton vs Man City at 17 February 2021
Burnley vs Fulham at 17 February 2021


Everton vs Man City at 17 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

8.51

4.33

11.3

Draw

5.34

4.10

5.7

Man City

1.36

1.90

-20.9

Over 2.5

1.65

1.92

-8.5

Under 2.5

2.29

2.08

4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Everton, Draw, Under 2.5 (11.3 %, 5.7 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Fulham

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Man United

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Feb

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Jan

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N


Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Liverpool

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Burnley

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Aston Villa

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Crystal Palace

H

4

0

W

O

N

13 Jan

Brighton

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Everton is 0.113 and for the Man City is 1.
The home dynamic for the Everton is -0.324 and the dynamic as a guest for the Man City is 0.847.
The offensive ability for the Everton is -0.06 and for the Man City is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is -1 and for the Man City is 1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

38%

31%

22%

9%

Man City

19%

30%

26%

25%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 0.59 goals and Man City to score 2.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.89 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 1.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.01 goals and Man City to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.07

1

5.75

2-3

2.03

2

4.27

4+

3.85

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.32

3.42

2.10

2-3 goals

3.98

5.36

1.78

4+ goals

5.31

3.25

1.98

Ov 1.5

4.35

4.38

1.85

Un 1.5

4.32

3.42

2.10

Ov 2.5

3.93

6.49

1.69

Un 2.5

4.90

2.93

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.31

3.25

1.98

Un 3.5

4.08

4.51

1.88

Goal-Goal

4.30

2.90

2.36

No Goal

4.39

6.94

1.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.51

5.09

1.93

NG+Un 2.5

3.96

6.94

1.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs Fulham at 17 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and Fulham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

2.79

2.53

3.7

Draw

3.19

3.80

-5.0

Fulham

2.71

2.93

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.31

2.02

6.2

Under 2.5

1.65

1.98

-10.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Aston Villa

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Jan

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

West Ham

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Man United

H

0

1

L

U

N


Fulham in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance as a guest.
Fulham, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Everton

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

West Ham

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Leicester

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

West Brom

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Jan

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Man United

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Jan

Tottenham

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Burnley is 0.348 and for the Fulham is -0.304.
The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.114 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is -0.036.
The offensive ability for the Burnley is 0.016 and for the Fulham is -0.176.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.037 and for the Fulham is 0.3.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, Fulham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

27%

28%

34%

11%

Fulham

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.1 goals and Fulham to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.3 goals and Fulham to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.97

1

5.75

2-3

1.99

2

3.95

4+

4.08

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.97

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.23

2.74

2-3 goals

2.00

5.24

3.25

4+ goals

3.95

2.75

2.61

Ov 1.5

2.38

4.04

3.00

Un 1.5

3.07

3.23

2.74

Ov 2.5

2.32

5.56

2.56

Un 2.5

2.76

2.90

3.41

Ov 3.5

3.95

2.75

2.61

Un 3.5

2.26

4.34

3.06

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.80

3.39

No Goal

2.23

6.18

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

4.74

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

6.18

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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