Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Tondela vs Maritimo at 16 February 2021
Guimaraes vs Farense at 18 February 2021
Tondela vs Maritimo at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tondela and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tondela |
2.51 |
2.04 |
9.2 |
|
Draw |
2.99 |
3.76 |
-6.8 |
|
Maritimo |
3.01 |
4.10 |
-8.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.16 |
2.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Tondela, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tondela in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance at home.
Tondela, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Maritimo in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance as a guest.
Maritimo, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Tondela is -0.243 and for the Maritimo is -1.
The home dynamic for the Tondela is 0.524 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maritimo is -0.301.
The offensive ability for the Tondela is 0.126 and for the Maritimo is -0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Tondela is -0.497 and for the Maritimo is -0.636.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tondela and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tondela |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |
|
Maritimo |
36% |
41% |
13% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.17 goals and Maritimo to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tondela to score 1.44 goals and Maritimo to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Tondela to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.48 |
|
1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.15 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.86 |
3.68 |
5.21 |
|
4+ goals |
2.00 |
4.23 |
3.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
3.84 |
4.67 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.15 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.75 |
3.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.52 |
4.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
4.23 |
3.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.20 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.68 |
4.94 |
|
No Goal |
1.80 |
6.27 |
3.51 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.91 |
3.62 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.27 |
3.37 |
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Guimaraes vs Farense at 18 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 18 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Guimaraes |
1.93 |
1.88 |
1.4 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
3.89 |
-5.1 |
|
Farense |
4.19 |
4.74 |
-2.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.27 |
-3.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.79 |
-1.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Guimaraes in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Farense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Guimaraes is 0.461 and for the Farense is -0.365.
The home dynamic for the Guimaraes is -0.162 and the dynamic as a guest for the Farense is -0.59.
The offensive ability for the Guimaraes is 0.486 and for the Farense is 0.288.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Guimaraes is 0.39 and for the Farense is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Guimaraes |
22% |
32% |
25% |
21% |
|
Farense |
44% |
34% |
16% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.49 goals and Farense to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.46 goals and Farense to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.26 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
5.08 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.26 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
|
Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
|
NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.27 |
4.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.54 |
4.90 |
|
4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.65 |
5.32 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.77 |
4.25 |
5.01 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.27 |
4.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
8.15 |
4.27 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.75 |
5.18 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.65 |
5.32 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.95 |
4.61 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.33 |
2.71 |
4.97 |
|
No Goal |
1.63 |
5.93 |
4.57 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.17 |
3.74 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
5.93 |
4.17 |
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