# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Tondela vs Maritimo at 16 February 2021**** Guimaraes vs Farense at 18 February 2021**

###
Tondela vs Maritimo at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tondela** and **Maritimo** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tondela |
2.51 |
2.04 |
9.2 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.76 |
-6.8 |

Maritimo |
3.01 |
4.10 |
-8.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.16 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.87 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tondela, Over 2.5 (9.2 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** at home**.

Tondela,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 63.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Maritimo** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maritimo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance** as a guest**.

Maritimo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Maritimo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Tondela** is **-0.243** and for the **Maritimo** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Tondela** is **0.524** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Maritimo** is **-0.301.**

The offensive ability for the **Tondela** is **0.126** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Tondela** is **-0.497** and for the **Maritimo** is **-0.636.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tondela** and the red line for guest team, **Maritimo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tondela |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

Maritimo |
36% |
41% |
13% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tondela** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Maritimo** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Tondela ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.15 |

2-3 goals |
1.86 |
3.68 |
5.21 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
4.23 |
3.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
3.84 |
4.67 |

Un 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.59 |
3.15 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.75 |
3.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.52 |
4.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
4.23 |
3.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.05 |
3.65 |
4.20 |

Goal-Goal |
2.35 |
2.68 |
4.94 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.27 |
3.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.91 |
3.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.27 |
3.37 |

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###
Guimaraes vs Farense at 18 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Guimaraes** and **Farense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **18 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Guimaraes |
1.93 |
1.88 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.89 |
-5.1 |

Farense |
4.19 |
4.74 |
-2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.27 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.79 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Guimaraes (1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** at home**.

Guimaraes,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** as a guest**.

Farense,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Guimaraes** is **0.461** and for the **Farense** is **-0.365.**

The home dynamic for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.162** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Farense** is **-0.59.**

The offensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **0.486** and for the **Farense** is **0.288.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **0.39** and for the **Farense** is **-1.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Guimaraes** and the red line for guest team, **Farense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Guimaraes |
22% |
32% |
25% |
21% |

Farense |
44% |
34% |
16% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Farense** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Farense** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.26 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.97 |
4+ |
5.08 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.26 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.19 |
3.27 |
4.21 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.54 |
4.90 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.65 |
5.32 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.77 |
4.25 |
5.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.27 |
4.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
8.15 |
4.27 |

Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.75 |
5.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.65 |
5.32 |

Un 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.95 |
4.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.33 |
2.71 |
4.97 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
5.93 |
4.57 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.17 |
3.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
5.93 |
4.17 |

####
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