2021 02 16 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leganes vs Almeria at 17 February 2021


Leganes vs Almeria at 17 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leganes and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leganes

2.27

2.25

0.4

Draw

2.87

3.58

-6.9

Almeria

3.74

3.62

0.9

Over 2.5

2.56

2.35

3.5

Under 2.5

1.49

1.74

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leganes, Almeria, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 0.9 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leganes in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance at home.
Leganes, at home, had 10 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 30 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Girona

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Lugo

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Las Palmas

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Fuenlabrada

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Dec

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Dec

Tenerife

A

0

0

D

U

N


Almeria in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Almeria in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Almeria’s performance as a guest.
Almeria, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Almeria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Las Palmas

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Castellon

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sabadell

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Ponferradina

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Malaga

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Leganes is 0.635 and for the Almeria is 0.278.
The home dynamic for the Leganes is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Almeria is 0.558.
The offensive ability for the Leganes is 0.563 and for the Almeria is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leganes is -0.037 and for the Almeria is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leganes and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leganes

25%

35%

25%

15%

Almeria

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.19 goals and Almeria to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.3 goals and Almeria to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.42

3.31

2-3 goals

2.11

3.87

3.72

4+ goals

2.30

3.18

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Un 1.5

2.46

3.42

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.05

3.16

Un 2.5

2.67

2.63

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.18

3.98

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.53

4.20

No Goal

1.94

5.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.83

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.77

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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