2021 02 16 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Apollon vs Lamia at 17 February 2021


Apollon vs Lamia at 17 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Apollon

2.53

2.33

3.4

Draw

2.87

3.66

-7.5

Lamia

3.12

3.37

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.26

2.34

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.61

1.75

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Apollon (3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Apollon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Lamia

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

1

L

U

N


Lamia in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Panetolikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Jan

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Atromitos

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Jan

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Jan

OFI Crete

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Apollon is 0 and for the Lamia is -0.13.
The home dynamic for the Apollon is -0.8 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lamia is -0.494.
The offensive ability for the Apollon is 0.093 and for the Lamia is -0.262.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Apollon is -0.604 and for the Lamia is 0.755.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Apollon

31%

30%

21%

18%

Lamia

37%

33%

23%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.18 goals and Lamia to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.27 goals and Lamia to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

3.09

1

4.72

2-3

2.11

2

4.05

4+

5.00

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.09

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.34

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

2.89

3.18

2-3 goals

2.22

4.75

2.95

4+ goals

1.90

3.28

5.88

Ov 1.5

2.12

4.19

3.46

Un 1.5

2.95

2.89

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.76

7.02

3.45

Un 2.5

3.07

2.69

3.30

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.28

5.88

Un 3.5

2.47

3.77

3.04

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.73

4.23

No Goal

2.20

4.99

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.57

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

4.99

2.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *