EuroLeague analysis Feb 18 – Feb 19



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Khimki vs Baskonia at 18 February 2021
Barcelona vs Zalgiris at 18 February 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 18 February 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Olympiacos at 18 February 2021
Villeurbanne vs Bayern Munich at 19 February 2021
Crvena Zvezda vs Zenit at 19 February 2021
Valencia vs Real Madrid at 19 February 2021
Fenerbahce vs Alba Berlin at 19 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Khimki vs Baskonia at 18 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Baskonia for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

4

3.58

Baskonia

1.28

1.39

Khimki HC

+8.5

6.50

Baskonia HC

-8.5

-6.50

Point Line

172.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

76

107

2

21

L 15

77

108

Jan 26

H

Bayern Munich

L

93

95

2

20

L 14

95

96

Jan 21

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

78

94

2

19

L 13

75

93

Jan 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

60

99

2

18

L 12

62

98

Jan 12

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

87

2

17

L 11

80

85

Jan 8

A

Zalgiris

L

75

102

2

16

L 10

77

102

Dec 29

H

Olympiacos

L

88

105

2

15

L 9

86

104

Dec 23

A

Valencia Basket

L

82

88

2

14

L 8

79

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

H

Zalgiris

W

81

68

10

13

W 1

83

68

Jan 27

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

77

83

9

13

L 4

76

86

Jan 22

H

Alba Berlin

L

77

84

9

12

L 3

74

87

Jan 14

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

82

91

9

11

L 2

83

91

Jan 12

A

Fenerbahce

L

76

96

9

10

L 1

77

97

Jan 7

H

CSKA Moscow

W

95

93

9

9

W 1

95

88

Jan 5

A

Alba Berlin

L

91

95

8

9

L 1

87

98

Dec 29

H

Valencia Basket

W

71

70

8

8

W 2

68

68

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Baskonia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Baskonia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Baskonia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 79 points and the Baskonia 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Baskonia

FG%

0.53

0.54

ASS

18.80

19.40

DRB

20.30

21.50

AST-TO

1.38

1.38

TRB

27.90

31.00

FTM

13.10

13.40

BL

3.40

2.80

FTA

16.70

17.50

PF-Fewer

22.10

18.00

ST

6.00

8.30

TO-Fewer

13.60

14.10

Ftper

0.79

0.77

ORBper

0.37

0.45

ORB

7.60

9.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Barcelona vs Zalgiris at 18 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.2

2.18

Zalgiris

4.75

1.85

Barcelona HC

-8.5

2.00

Zalgiris HC

+8.5

-2.00

Point Line

154.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 4

H

Anadolu Efes

L

86

88

17

7

L 1

88

88

Jan 28

A

Olympiacos

W

76

74

17

6

W 6

74

74

Jan 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

85

81

16

6

W 5

90

83

Jan 22

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

72

60

15

6

W 4

73

64

Jan 15

A

CSKA Moscow

W

88

75

14

6

W 3

88

71

Jan 12

A

BC Khimki

W

87

75

13

6

W 2

74

75

Jan 7

H

Valencia Basket

W

89

72

12

6

W 1

85

70

Dec 30

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

90

11

6

L 3

79

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

81

13

10

L 1

69

81

Jan 27

A

Valencia Basket

W

79

78

13

9

W 2

76

76

Jan 22

H

Olympiacos

W

81

79

12

9

W 1

79

78

Jan 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

65

77

11

9

L 2

69

79

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

73

78

Jan 8

H

BC Khimki

W

102

75

11

7

W 6

87

75

Dec 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

74

71

10

7

W 5

71

73

Dec 23

H

Bayern Munich

W

74

73

9

7

W 4

76

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 79 points and the Zalgiris 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Zalgiris

FG%

0.49

0.57

ASS

16.60

18.70

DRB

18.40

21.40

AST-TO

1.38

1.52

TRB

27.40

29.30

FTM

14.30

12.50

BL

2.30

1.20

FTA

18.50

14.60

PF-Fewer

20.90

19.70

ST

7.10

6.10

TO-Fewer

12.00

12.30

Ftper

0.78

0.86

ORBper

0.49

0.37

ORB

9.00

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 18 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.5

1.96

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.65

2.04

Olimpia Milano HC

-4.5

-1.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+4.5

1.50

Point Line

157.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 5

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

69

78

15

8

L 1

69

81

Jan 28

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

76

15

7

W 6

87

78

Jan 26

H

Olympiacos

W

90

79

14

7

W 5

88

78

Jan 21

H

Bayern Munich

W

75

51

13

7

W 4

77

51

Jan 14

A

Alba Berlin

W

84

70

12

7

W 3

81

72

Jan 12

H

Valencia Basket

W

95

80

11

7

W 2

91

78

Jan 8

A

Real Madrid

W

80

76

10

7

W 1

83

74

Dec 30

H

CSKA Moscow

L

87

91

9

7

L 2

87

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 26

A

Fenerbahce

L

75

82

10

12

L 1

76

83

Jan 21

H

Real Madrid

W

86

84

10

11

W 2

89

82

Jan 14

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

91

82

9

11

W 1

92

82

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

85

88

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

82

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

76

80

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

86

80

Dec 18

A

FC Barcelona

W

68

67

6

9

W 1

73

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 80 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.56

0.54

ASS

15.90

16.00

DRB

21.20

22.80

AST-TO

1.50

1.21

TRB

27.70

31.10

FTM

14.40

12.80

BL

2.50

2.40

FTA

18.00

16.70

PF-Fewer

19.90

19.60

ST

6.70

7.10

TO-Fewer

10.60

13.20

Ftper

0.80

0.77

ORBper

0.31

0.36

ORB

6.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Anadolu Efes vs Olympiacos at 18 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Olympiacos for EuroLeague, which will take place on 18 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Anadolu Efes

1.25

1.81

Olympiacos

4.94

2.24

Anadolu Efes HC

-9.5

-2.50

Olympiacos HC

+9.5

2.50

Point Line

159.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 4

A

FC Barcelona

W

88

86

13

10

W 2

94

84

Jan 26

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

86

72

12

10

W 1

87

77

Jan 21

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

78

85

11

10

L 1

82

87

Jan 14

H

BC Khimki

W

99

60

11

9

W 3

84

60

Jan 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

84

76

10

9

W 2

81

78

Jan 8

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

102

80

9

9

W 1

101

83

Dec 29

H

Real Madrid

L

65

73

8

9

L 1

67

71

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

92

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 5

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

77

88

11

13

L 4

74

87

Jan 28

H

FC Barcelona

L

74

76

11

12

L 3

79

74

Jan 26

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

79

90

11

11

L 2

80

88

Jan 22

A

Zalgiris

L

79

81

11

10

L 1

81

81

Jan 19

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

101

93

11

9

W 1

100

96

Jan 15

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

63

69

10

9

L 1

63

72

Jan 12

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

89

87

10

8

W 3

90

87

Jan 8

H

Bayern Munich

W

84

82

9

8

W 2

86

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olympiacos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olympiacos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Anadolu Efes (in the first graph) and by Olympiacos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Anadolu Efes will expected to score 80 points and the Olympiacos 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 159.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Anadolu Efes

Olympiacos

FG%

0.55

0.55

ASS

17.40

16.80

DRB

20.10

20.30

AST-TO

1.64

1.28

TRB

28.00

27.90

FTM

13.40

14.80

BL

2.80

2.90

FTA

17.50

19.00

PF-Fewer

17.30

21.80

ST

7.00

6.70

TO-Fewer

10.60

13.10

Ftper

0.77

0.78

ORBper

0.39

0.37

ORB

7.90

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Villeurbanne vs Bayern Munich at 19 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Bayern Munich for EuroLeague, which will take place on 19 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

2.12

2.90

Bayern Munich

1.75

1.53

Villeurbanne HC

+1.5

5.00

Bayern Munich HC

-1.5

-5.00

Point Line

154.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 5

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

78

69

10

14

W 4

79

67

Jan 29

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

78

9

14

W 3

82

83

Jan 27

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

83

77

8

14

W 2

84

77

Jan 21

H

Valencia Basket

W