2021 02 19 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bielefeld vs Wolfsburg at 19 February 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich at 20 February 2021
FC Koln vs Stuttgart at 20 February 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Mainz at 20 February 2021
Schalke 04 vs Dortmund at 20 February 2021
Freiburg vs Union Berlin at 20 February 2021
Augsburg vs Leverkusen at 21 February 2021
Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen at 21 February 2021
Hertha vs RB Leipzig at 21 February 2021


Bielefeld vs Wolfsburg at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Wolfsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bielefeld

5.43

3.80

7.9

Draw

3.88

3.98

-0.6

Wolfsburg

1.67

2.05

-11.1

Over 2.5

1.88

1.84

1.2

Under 2.5

1.96

2.19

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bielefeld in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

FC Koln

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Stuttgart

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Jan

Hertha

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

M’gladbach

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Schalke 04

A

1

0

W

U

N


Wolfsburg in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolfsburg in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance as a guest.
Wolfsburg, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

M’gladbach

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Augsburg

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Freiburg

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Mainz

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Jan

Union Berlin

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Dortmund

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Bielefeld is -0.059 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.667.
The home dynamic for the Bielefeld is -0.725 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolfsburg is 0.015.
The offensive ability for the Bielefeld is 0.704 and for the Wolfsburg is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bielefeld is 0.091 and for the Wolfsburg is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Wolfsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bielefeld

32%

37%

19%

13%

Wolfsburg

21%

29%

24%

26%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 0.78 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Wolfsburg to win by 1.03 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.12 goals and Wolfsburg to score 1.56 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the guest team Wolfsburg to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.27

1

5.95

2-3

2.11

2

4.52

4+

3.44

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.59

Un 1.5

4.27

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.20

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.44

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.41

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.55

2.60

2-3 goals

4.01

4.42

1.91

4+ goals

4.41

3.78

1.97

Ov 1.5

4.15

4.15

1.93

Un 1.5

3.00

3.55

2.60

Ov 2.5

3.74

7.05

1.69

Un 2.5

3.89

2.63

2.76

Ov 3.5

4.41

3.78

1.97

Un 3.5

3.61

4.09

2.09

Goal-Goal

4.54

2.93

2.28

No Goal

3.20

6.94

1.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.64

5.62

1.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.97

6.94

2.11


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ein Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ein Frankfurt

4.02

2.39

17.0

Draw

4.29

4.00

1.7

Bayern Munich

1.79

3.01

-22.6

Over 2.5

1.29

1.79

-21.7

Under 2.5

3.51

2.26

15.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ein Frankfurt, Draw, Under 2.5 (17 %, 1.7 %, 15.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

FC Koln

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Hertha

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bielefeld

A

5

1

W

O

G

20 Jan

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Schalke 04

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Mainz

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Leverkusen

H

2

1

W

O

G


Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

Bielefeld

H

3

3

D

O

G

05 Feb

Hertha

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hoffenheim

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Schalke 04

A

4

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Augsburg

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Freiburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

08 Jan

M’gladbach

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Mainz

H

5

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.852 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.8.
The home dynamic for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.174 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bayern Munich is 0.579.
The offensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is 1 and for the Bayern Munich is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.518 and for the Bayern Munich is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ein Frankfurt

26%

34%

9%

30%

Bayern Munich

35%

23%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.32 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.76 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.44 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.68

1

5.52

2-3

2.35

2

5.88

4+

3.31

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.68

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.80

6+

16.95

Un 2.5

2.26

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

2.99

4.46

2-3 goals

2.69

5.31

2.27

4+ goals

2.16

3.82

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.44

4.57

2.69

Un 1.5

2.27

2.99

4.46

Ov 2.5

2.09

7.05

2.64

Un 2.5

2.93

2.58

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.82

3.64

Un 3.5

2.51

4.08

2.81

Goal-Goal

2.99

3.03

2.99

No Goal

2.02

5.69

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.49

5.08

2.49

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

5.69

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Koln vs Stuttgart at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Koln and Stuttgart for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Koln

3.36

2.92

4.5

Draw

3.63

3.88

-1.8

Stuttgart

2.13

2.51

-7.1

Over 2.5

1.73

1.84

-3.5

Under 2.5

2.17

2.19

-0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Koln (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Koln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance at home.
FC Koln, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Ein Frankfurt

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

M’gladbach

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Bielefeld

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Hoffenheim

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Jan

Schalke 04

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Hertha

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Freiburg

A

0

5

L

O

N

02 Jan

Augsburg

H

0

1

L

U

N


Stuttgart in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance as a guest.
Stuttgart, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

5

L

O

G

29 Jan

Mainz

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Bielefeld

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Augsburg

A

4

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the FC Koln is 0.148 and for the Stuttgart is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the FC Koln is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stuttgart is 0.703.
The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 0.015 and for the Stuttgart is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -0.664 and for the Stuttgart is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Koln and the red line for guest team, Stuttgart.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Koln

28%

35%

16%

21%

Stuttgart

26%

29%

23%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.16 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Stuttgart to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.29 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.05

1

5.75

2-3

2.21

2

4.78

4+

3.33

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.05

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

22.22

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

3.33

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.38

3.01

2-3 goals

3.19

4.40

2.18

4+ goals

2.75

3.70

2.73

Ov 1.5

3.00

4.09

2.37

Un 1.5

2.68

3.38

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.59

6.72

2.15

Un 2.5

3.43

2.59

3.10

Ov 3.5

2.75

3.70

2.73

Un 3.5

2.99

3.98

2.41

Goal-Goal

3.43

2.89

2.77

No Goal

2.49

6.42

2.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

5.28

2.23

NG+Un 2.5

2.65

6.42

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

M’gladbach vs Mainz at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

M’gladbach

1.68

1.73

-1.7

Draw

3.95

4.39

-2.5

Mainz

5.22

5.18

0.1

Over 2.5

1.65

1.70

-1.8

Under 2.5

2.30

2.42

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mainz (0.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Bielefeld

A

1

0

W

U

N


Mainz in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Union Berlin

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Stuttgart

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

RB Leipzig

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Wolfsburg

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Dortmund

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Bayern Munich

A

2

5

L

O

G


The form score for the M’gladbach is 0.126 and for the Mainz is 0.022.
The home dynamic for the M’gladbach is -0.054 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mainz is -0.364.
The offensive ability for the M’gladbach is 0.607 and for the Mainz is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the M’gladbach is -0.155 and for the Mainz is -0.571.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

M’gladbach

15%

29%

18%

38%

Mainz

36%

36%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 2.01 goals and Mainz to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.79 goals and Mainz to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.52

0-1

4.69

1

6.29

2-3

2.14

2

5.05

4+

3.14

3

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.08

Un 1.5

4.69

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.70

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.43

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

3.14

NoG