# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bielefeld vs Wolfsburg at 19 February 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich at 20 February 2021**** FC Koln vs Stuttgart at 20 February 2021**

<a href=‘#M’gladbach’>** M’gladbach vs Mainz at 20 February 2021**** Schalke 04 vs Dortmund at 20 February 2021**** Freiburg vs Union Berlin at 20 February 2021**** Augsburg vs Leverkusen at 21 February 2021**** Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen at 21 February 2021**** Hertha vs RB Leipzig at 21 February 2021**

###
Bielefeld vs Wolfsburg at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bielefeld** and **Wolfsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bielefeld |
5.43 |
3.80 |
7.9 |

Draw |
3.88 |
3.98 |
-0.6 |

Wolfsburg |
1.67 |
2.05 |
-11.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.84 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.19 |
-5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bielefeld, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bielefeld** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bielefeld** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance** at home**.

Bielefeld,** at home**, had 4 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Wolfsburg** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolfsburg** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wolfsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolfsburg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolfsburg scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolfsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
M’gladbach |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.059** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.667.**

The home dynamic for the **Bielefeld** is **-0.725** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.015.**

The offensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **0.704** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bielefeld** is **0.091** and for the **Wolfsburg** is **1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bielefeld** and the red line for guest team, **Wolfsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bielefeld |
32% |
37% |
19% |
13% |

Wolfsburg |
21% |
29% |
24% |
26% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **0.78 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **1.03** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bielefeld** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Wolfsburg** to score **1.56 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolfsburg ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.27 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.52 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.59 |
Un 1.5 |
4.27 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.55 |
2.60 |

2-3 goals |
4.01 |
4.42 |
1.91 |

4+ goals |
4.41 |
3.78 |
1.97 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.15 |
4.15 |
1.93 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.55 |
2.60 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.74 |
7.05 |
1.69 |

Un 2.5 |
3.89 |
2.63 |
2.76 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |
3.78 |
1.97 |

Un 3.5 |
3.61 |
4.09 |
2.09 |

Goal-Goal |
4.54 |
2.93 |
2.28 |

No Goal |
3.20 |
6.94 |
1.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.64 |
5.62 |
1.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.97 |
6.94 |
2.11 |

####
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###
Ein Frankfurt vs Bayern Munich at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ein Frankfurt** and **Bayern Munich** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ein Frankfurt |
4.02 |
2.39 |
17.0 |

Draw |
4.29 |
4.00 |
1.7 |

Bayern Munich |
1.79 |
3.01 |
-22.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.29 |
1.79 |
-21.7 |

Under 2.5 |
3.51 |
2.26 |
15.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ein Frankfurt, Draw, Under 2.5 (17 %, 1.7 %, 15.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ein Frankfurt** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ein Frankfurt** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance** at home**.

Ein Frankfurt,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ein Frankfurt** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bayern Munich** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bayern Munich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance** as a guest**.

Bayern Munich,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bayern Munich** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Hertha |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.852** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.8.**

The home dynamic for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **0.174** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.579.**

The offensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **1** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ein Frankfurt** is **-0.518** and for the **Bayern Munich** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ein Frankfurt** and the red line for guest team, **Bayern Munich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ein Frankfurt |
26% |
34% |
9% |
30% |

Bayern Munich |
35% |
23% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **2.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.76** goals in the game and the guest team **Bayern Munich ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ein Frankfurt** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Bayern Munich** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.35 |

2 |
5.88 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |

6+ |
16.95 |
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
2.99 |
4.46 |

2-3 goals |
2.69 |
5.31 |
2.27 |

4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.82 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
4.57 |
2.69 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
2.99 |
4.46 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.05 |
2.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.58 |
3.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.82 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
4.08 |
2.81 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
3.03 |
2.99 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
5.69 |
3.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.08 |
2.49 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.69 |
3.02 |

####
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###
FC Koln vs Stuttgart at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Koln** and **Stuttgart** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Koln |
3.36 |
2.92 |
4.5 |

Draw |
3.63 |
3.88 |
-1.8 |

Stuttgart |
2.13 |
2.51 |
-7.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.84 |
-3.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.19 |
-0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Koln (4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Koln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Koln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance** at home**.

FC Koln,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Koln scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** as a guest**.

Stuttgart,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Hertha |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **FC Koln** is **0.148** and for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **FC Koln** is **-1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stuttgart** is **0.703.**

The offensive ability for the **FC Koln** is **0.015** and for the **Stuttgart** is **0.704.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **FC Koln** is **-0.664** and for the **Stuttgart** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Koln** and the red line for guest team, **Stuttgart. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Koln |
28% |
35% |
16% |
21% |

Stuttgart |
26% |
29% |
23% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Stuttgart** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.78** goals in the game and the guest team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Koln** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Stuttgart** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.05 |

1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.78 |
4+ |
3.33 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.38 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
3.19 |
4.40 |
2.18 |

4+ goals |
2.75 |
3.70 |
2.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.00 |
4.09 |
2.37 |

Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.38 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
6.72 |
2.15 |

Un 2.5 |
3.43 |
2.59 |
3.10 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.75 |
3.70 |
2.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.99 |
3.98 |
2.41 |

Goal-Goal |
3.43 |
2.89 |
2.77 |

No Goal |
2.49 |
6.42 |
2.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.76 |
5.28 |
2.23 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
6.42 |
2.40 |

####
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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>

###
M’gladbach vs Mainz at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **M’gladbach** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

M’gladbach |
1.68 |
1.73 |
-1.7 |

Draw |
3.95 |
4.39 |
-2.5 |

Mainz |
5.22 |
5.18 |
0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.70 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
2.42 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mainz (0.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**M’gladbach** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **M’gladbach** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance** at home**.

M’gladbach,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, M’gladbach** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **M’gladbach** is **0.126** and for the **Mainz** is **0.022.**

The home dynamic for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.054** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Mainz** is **-0.364.**

The offensive ability for the **M’gladbach** is **0.607** and for the **Mainz** is **0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **M’gladbach** is **-0.155** and for the **Mainz** is **-0.571.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **M’gladbach** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

M’gladbach |
15% |
29% |
18% |
38% |

Mainz |
36% |
36% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **2.01 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **M’gladbach** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.8** goals in the game and the home team **M’gladbach ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.52 |
0-1 |
4.69 |

1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
5.05 |
4+ |
3.14 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.08 |
Un 1.5 |
4.69 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.43 |

Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |

NoG |