# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Watford vs Derby at 19 February 2021**

<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’>** Nott’m Forest vs Blackburn at 20 February 2021**** QPR vs Bournemouth at 20 February 2021**** Stoke vs Luton at 20 February 2021**** Reading vs Middlesbrough at 20 February 2021**** Millwall vs Wycombe at 20 February 2021**** Huddersfield vs Swansea at 20 February 2021**** Coventry vs Brentford at 20 February 2021**** Cardiff vs Preston at 20 February 2021**** Bristol City vs Barnsley at 20 February 2021**** Sheffield Weds vs Birmingham at 20 February 2021**** Norwich vs Rotherham at 20 February 2021**

###
Watford vs Derby at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Watford** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Watford |
1.86 |
1.74 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.36 |
4.15 |
-5.7 |

Derby |
4.66 |
5.46 |
-3.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.05 |
7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.95 |
-12.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Watford, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 7.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** at home**.

Watford,** at home**, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Preston |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
QPR |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Watford** is **0.356** and for the **Derby** is **0.652.**

The home dynamic for the **Watford** is **0.497** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Derby** is **-0.005.**

The offensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.356** and for the **Derby** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Watford** is **0.727** and for the **Derby** is **0.03.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Watford** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Watford |
17% |
30% |
29% |
24% |

Derby |
41% |
39% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Watford** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Derby** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Watford ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.10 |
3.76 |
3.88 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
4.39 |
7.19 |

4+ goals |
1.79 |
4.11 |
5.02 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.64 |
4.30 |
6.36 |

Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.76 |
3.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
8.87 |
5.08 |

Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.75 |
5.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.11 |
5.02 |

Un 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.16 |
5.61 |

Goal-Goal |
2.08 |
2.86 |
5.95 |

No Goal |
1.50 |
7.44 |
5.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.84 |
4.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.44 |
4.53 |

####
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<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

###
Nott’m Forest vs Blackburn at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nott’m Forest** and **Blackburn** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nott’m Forest |
2.59 |
2.56 |
0.5 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.62 |
-3.1 |

Blackburn |
2.76 |
3.00 |
-2.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.23 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.81 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nott’m Forest (0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nott’m Forest** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nott’m Forest** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance** at home**.

Nott’m Forest,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Preston |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Blackburn** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackburn** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackburn,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackburn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Barnsley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Preston |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
QPR |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Birmingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.244.**

The home dynamic for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.246** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Blackburn** is **0.221.**

The offensive ability for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.059** and for the **Blackburn** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.245** and for the **Blackburn** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nott’m Forest** and the red line for guest team, **Blackburn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nott’m Forest |
29% |
35% |
19% |
17% |

Blackburn |
33% |
34% |
19% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nott’m Forest** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Blackburn** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.19 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.19 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.23 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.53 |
3.88 |
2.88 |

4+ goals |
2.46 |
3.75 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.84 |
2.94 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.23 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.59 |
2.52 |

Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.54 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.75 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.59 |
2.97 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.64 |
3.40 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
5.43 |
2.70 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
5.98 |
2.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
5.43 |
2.77 |

####
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###
QPR vs Bournemouth at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **QPR** and **Bournemouth** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

QPR |
2.98 |
2.65 |
4.2 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.61 |
-2.0 |

Bournemouth |
2.37 |
2.90 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.24 |
-6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.81 |
2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **QPR, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**QPR** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **QPR** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance** at home**.

QPR,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, QPR scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Watford |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Luton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Swansea |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bournemouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bournemouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Bournemouth,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Reading |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Derby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **QPR** is **0.681** and for the **Bournemouth** is **-0.074.**

The home dynamic for the **QPR** is **0.078** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bournemouth** is **0.405.**

The offensive ability for the **QPR** is **0.681** and for the **Bournemouth** is **0.356.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **QPR** is **0.155** and for the **Bournemouth** is **-0.116.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **QPR** and the red line for guest team, **Bournemouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

QPR |
30% |
35% |
18% |
17% |

Bournemouth |
33% |
34% |
19% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **QPR** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Bournemouth** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.14 |

1 |
4.57 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.14 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.77 |
3.21 |
3.06 |

2-3 goals |
2.68 |
3.81 |
2.74 |

4+ goals |
2.43 |
3.88 |
3.03 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.83 |
2.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.21 |
3.06 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
7.82 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
3.22 |
2.52 |
3.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.43 |
3.88 |
3.03 |

Un 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.54 |
2.86 |

Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.64 |
3.33 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
5.35 |
2.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
6.12 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.35 |
2.67 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stoke vs Luton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Luton** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
2.27 |
1.92 |
8.0 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.83 |
-5.8 |

Luton |
3.40 |
4.59 |
-7.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.15 |
7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.87 |
-11.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stoke, Over 2.5 (8 %, 7.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Watford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** as a guest**.

Luton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
QPR |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Stoke** is **-0.133** and for the **Luton** is **-0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Stoke** is **-0.042** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Luton** is **0.056.**

The offensive ability for the **Stoke** is **0.652** and for the **Luton** is **-0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stoke** is **-0.091** and for the **Luton** is **-0.253.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Luton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
20% |
32% |
25% |
22% |

Luton |
38% |
41% |
12% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Luton** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |