2021 02 19 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Watford vs Derby at 19 February 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Blackburn at 20 February 2021
QPR vs Bournemouth at 20 February 2021
Stoke vs Luton at 20 February 2021
Reading vs Middlesbrough at 20 February 2021
Millwall vs Wycombe at 20 February 2021
Huddersfield vs Swansea at 20 February 2021
Coventry vs Brentford at 20 February 2021
Cardiff vs Preston at 20 February 2021
Bristol City vs Barnsley at 20 February 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Birmingham at 20 February 2021
Norwich vs Rotherham at 20 February 2021


Watford vs Derby at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.86

1.74

3.7

Draw

3.36

4.15

-5.7

Derby

4.66

5.46

-3.1

Over 2.5

2.43

2.05

7.6

Under 2.5

1.57

1.95

-12.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Watford, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 7.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 35 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Preston

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bristol City

H

6

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

QPR

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Jan

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N


Derby in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Wycombe

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Rotherham

A

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Watford is 0.356 and for the Derby is 0.652.
The home dynamic for the Watford is 0.497 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Watford is 0.356 and for the Derby is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Watford is 0.727 and for the Derby is 0.03.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

17%

30%

29%

24%

Derby

41%

39%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.39 goals and Derby to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.61 goals and Derby to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.91

1

5.32

2-3

1.93

2

3.91

4+

4.42

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.91

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

3.76

3.88

2-3 goals

1.58

4.39

7.19

4+ goals

1.79

4.11

5.02

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.30

6.36

Un 1.5

2.10

3.76

3.88

Ov 2.5

1.45

8.87

5.08

Un 2.5

2.14

2.75

5.89

Ov 3.5

1.79

4.11

5.02

Un 3.5

1.72

4.16

5.61

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.86

5.95

No Goal

1.50

7.44

5.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

6.84

4.53

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.44

4.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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<a id=‘Nott’m Forest’>

Nott’m Forest vs Blackburn at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nott’m Forest and Blackburn for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nott’m Forest

2.59

2.56

0.5

Draw

3.26

3.62

-3.1

Blackburn

2.76

3.00

-2.9

Over 2.5

2.13

2.23

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.73

1.81

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nott’m Forest (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance at home.
Nott’m Forest, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Wycombe

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Feb

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Barnsley

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Millwall

H

3

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Preston

A

1

0

W

U

N


Blackburn in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance as a guest.
Blackburn, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Feb

Preston

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Birmingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Huddersfield

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Nott’m Forest is 0 and for the Blackburn is -0.244.
The home dynamic for the Nott’m Forest is -0.246 and the dynamic as a guest for the Blackburn is 0.221.
The offensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is -0.059 and for the Blackburn is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nott’m Forest is 0.245 and for the Blackburn is -0.288.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nott’m Forest and the red line for guest team, Blackburn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nott’m Forest

29%

35%

19%

17%

Blackburn

33%

34%

19%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.2 goals and Blackburn to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nott’m Forest to score 1.24 goals and Blackburn to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.19

1

4.63

2-3

2.15

2

4.18

4+

4.52

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.19

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.23

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.23

3.13

2-3 goals

2.53

3.88

2.88

4+ goals

2.46

3.75

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.84

2.94

Un 1.5

2.70

3.23

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.12

7.59

2.52

Un 2.5

3.08

2.54

3.54

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.75

3.07

Un 3.5

2.60

3.59

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.64

3.40

No Goal

2.24

5.43

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.28

5.98

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

5.43

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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QPR vs Bournemouth at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between QPR and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

QPR

2.98

2.65

4.2

Draw

3.37

3.61

-2.0

Bournemouth

2.37

2.90

-7.7

Over 2.5

1.96

2.24

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.89

1.81

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at QPR, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

QPR in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, QPR in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at QPR’s performance at home.
QPR, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, QPR scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of QPR was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Brentford

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Watford

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Derby

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Cardiff

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

Luton

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Norwich

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Swansea

H

0

2

L

U

N


Bournemouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bournemouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bournemouth’s performance as a guest.
Bournemouth, as a guest, had 4 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bournemouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bournemouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Nott’m Forest

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Birmingham

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Jan

Reading

A

1

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Derby

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the QPR is 0.681 and for the Bournemouth is -0.074.
The home dynamic for the QPR is 0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bournemouth is 0.405.
The offensive ability for the QPR is 0.681 and for the Bournemouth is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the QPR is 0.155 and for the Bournemouth is -0.116.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, QPR and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

QPR

30%

35%

18%

17%

Bournemouth

33%

34%

19%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) QPR to score 1.15 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) QPR to score 1.21 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.14

1

4.57

2-3

2.17

2

4.24

4+

4.52

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.14

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.21

3.06

2-3 goals

2.68

3.81

2.74

4+ goals

2.43

3.88

3.03

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.83

2.83

Un 1.5

2.77

3.21

3.06

Ov 2.5

2.17

7.82

2.44

Un 2.5

3.22

2.52

3.42

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.88

3.03

Un 3.5

2.71

3.54

2.86

Goal-Goal

3.11

2.64

3.33

No Goal

2.33

5.35

2.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

6.12

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.52

5.35

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stoke vs Luton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Luton for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

2.27

1.92

8.0

Draw

3.13

3.83

-5.8

Luton

3.40

4.59

-7.6

Over 2.5

2.54

2.15

7.1

Under 2.5

1.53

1.87

-11.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke, Over 2.5 (8 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Norwich

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Watford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Jan

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Bournemouth

H

0

1

L

U

N


Luton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance as a guest.
Luton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Blackburn

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Brentford

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Bournemouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

QPR

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Dec

Bristol City

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Stoke is -0.133 and for the Luton is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the Stoke is -0.042 and the dynamic as a guest for the Luton is 0.056.
The offensive ability for the Stoke is 0.652 and for the Luton is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.091 and for the Luton is -0.253.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Luton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

20%

32%

25%

22%

Luton

38%

41%

12%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.18 goals and Luton to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.49 goals and Luton to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.55

1

4.85

2-3

2.01

2

3.95

4+

4.52

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.55

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-