# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sutton vs Wealdstone at 20 February 2021**** Bromley vs Maidenhead at 20 February 2021**** Torquay vs Halifax at 20 February 2021**** Notts County vs Chesterfield at 20 February 2021**** Hartlepool vs Yeovil at 20 February 2021**** Eastleigh vs Stockport at 20 February 2021**** Aldershot vs Wrexham at 20 February 2021**** Altrincham vs Boreham Wood at 20 February 2021**** Barnet vs Woking at 20 February 2021**** Weymouth vs Solihull at 20 February 2021**

###
Sutton vs Wealdstone at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sutton** and **Wealdstone** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sutton |
1.67 |
1.75 |
-2.7 |

Draw |
3.80 |
4.29 |
-3.0 |

Wealdstone |
4.44 |
5.13 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.96 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.04 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sutton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sutton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance** at home**.

Sutton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** as a guest**.

Wealdstone,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sutton** is **0.356** and for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.533.**

The home dynamic for the **Sutton** is **0.138** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wealdstone** is **-0.128.**

The offensive ability for the **Sutton** is **0.333** and for the **Wealdstone** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sutton** is **0.7** and for the **Wealdstone** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sutton** and the red line for guest team, **Wealdstone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sutton |
22% |
22% |
27% |
29% |

Wealdstone |
41% |
37% |
16% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.84 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Sutton ** to win by **0.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Sutton ** to win by **0.75** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
2.93 |
3.22 |

2-3 goals |
1.50 |
5.96 |
5.96 |

4+ goals |
1.61 |
4.00 |
7.87 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.54 |
5.13 |
6.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
2.93 |
3.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.38 |
8.38 |
6.39 |

Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.84 |
4.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.61 |
4.00 |
7.87 |

Un 3.5 |
1.80 |
4.40 |
4.61 |

Goal-Goal |
1.83 |
3.22 |
7.02 |

No Goal |
1.68 |
6.03 |
4.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
6.23 |
5.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.03 |
3.53 |

####
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###
Bromley vs Maidenhead at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bromley** and **Maidenhead** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bromley |
1.83 |
2.33 |
-11.7 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.79 |
-0.9 |

Maidenhead |
3.83 |
3.28 |
4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.00 |
1.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maidenhead, Under 2.5 (4.4 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** at home**.

Bromley,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** as a guest**.

Maidenhead,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bromley** is **-0.163** and for the **Maidenhead** is **0.281.**

The home dynamic for the **Bromley** is **-0.365** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Maidenhead** is **0.303.**

The offensive ability for the **Bromley** is **0.607** and for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bromley** is **-0.155** and for the **Maidenhead** is **0.116.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bromley** and the red line for guest team, **Maidenhead. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bromley |
25% |
32% |
24% |
19% |

Maidenhead |
31% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bromley** to score **1.71 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Bromley ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bromley** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.45 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.34 |
3.20 |

4+ goals |
2.29 |
3.30 |
3.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.92 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.45 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.48 |
3.04 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.67 |
3.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.30 |
3.85 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.98 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.76 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.36 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.32 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.36 |
2.75 |

####
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###
Torquay vs Halifax at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torquay** and **Halifax** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torquay |
1.96 |
2.14 |
-4.3 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.89 |
-2.7 |

Halifax |
3.49 |
3.62 |
-1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.98 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.02 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torquay** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torquay** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance** at home**.

Torquay,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Torquay scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Wealdstone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Feb |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Halifax** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Halifax** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance** as a guest**.

Halifax,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Barnet |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Torquay** is **-0.148** and for the **Halifax** is **-0.089.**

The home dynamic for the **Torquay** is **0.365** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Halifax** is **-0.056.**

The offensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.385** and for the **Halifax** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Torquay** is **0.182** and for the **Halifax** is **-0.597.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torquay** and the red line for guest team, **Halifax. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torquay |
24% |
28% |
25% |
22% |

Halifax |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Torquay ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torquay** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Torquay ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.26 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.74 |
3.63 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.43 |
4.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.18 |
3.94 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.26 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.73 |
3.66 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.73 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.43 |
4.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.18 |
4.09 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.88 |
4.50 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.15 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.43 |
3.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.15 |
2.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Notts County vs Chesterfield at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Notts County** and **Chesterfield** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Notts County |
2.03 |
2.26 |
-5.0 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.80 |
-2.8 |

Chesterfield |
3.39 |
3.40 |
-0.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.99 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.01 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** at home**.

Notts County,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Chesterfield,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Notts County** is **0.578** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.296.**

The home dynamic for the **Notts County** is **0.257** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chesterfield** is **0.077.**

The offensive ability for the **Notts County** is **0.43** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Notts County** is **0.664** and for the **Chesterfield** is **0.09.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Notts County** and the red line for guest team, **Chesterfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Notts County |
23% |
32% |
25% |
20% |

Chesterfield |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Notts County ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Notts County** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Chesterfield** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.