2021 02 19 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sutton vs Wealdstone at 20 February 2021
Bromley vs Maidenhead at 20 February 2021
Torquay vs Halifax at 20 February 2021
Notts County vs Chesterfield at 20 February 2021
Hartlepool vs Yeovil at 20 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Stockport at 20 February 2021
Aldershot vs Wrexham at 20 February 2021
Altrincham vs Boreham Wood at 20 February 2021
Barnet vs Woking at 20 February 2021
Weymouth vs Solihull at 20 February 2021


Sutton vs Wealdstone at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sutton

1.67

1.75

-2.7

Draw

3.80

4.29

-3.0

Wealdstone

4.44

5.13

-3.0

Over 2.5

1.72

1.96

-7.1

Under 2.5

2.07

2.04

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Stockport

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Dec

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Solihull

H

4

1

W

O

G


Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Torquay

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aldershot

H

3

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Maidenhead

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Dec

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Sutton is 0.356 and for the Wealdstone is -0.533.
The home dynamic for the Sutton is 0.138 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -0.128.
The offensive ability for the Sutton is 0.333 and for the Wealdstone is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sutton is 0.7 and for the Wealdstone is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sutton

22%

22%

27%

29%

Wealdstone

41%

37%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.84 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.63 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.83

1

5.81

2-3

2.02

2

4.39

4+

4.10

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.83

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

2.93

3.22

2-3 goals

1.50

5.96

5.96

4+ goals

1.61

4.00

7.87

Ov 1.5

1.54

5.13

6.48

Un 1.5

2.87

2.93

3.22

Ov 2.5

1.38

8.38

6.39

Un 2.5

2.42

2.84

4.25

Ov 3.5

1.61

4.00

7.87

Un 3.5

1.80

4.40

4.61

Goal-Goal

1.83

3.22

7.02

No Goal

1.68

6.03

4.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.50

6.23

5.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

6.03

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Maidenhead at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

1.83

2.33

-11.7

Draw

3.66

3.79

-0.9

Maidenhead

3.83

3.28

4.4

Over 2.5

1.75

2.00

-7.1

Under 2.5

2.04

2.00

1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead, Under 2.5 (4.4 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Aldershot

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Woking

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Yeovil

H

1

2

L

O

G


Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Stockport

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Halifax

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Yeovil

H

4

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bromley is -0.163 and for the Maidenhead is 0.281.
The home dynamic for the Bromley is -0.365 and the dynamic as a guest for the Maidenhead is 0.303.
The offensive ability for the Bromley is 0.607 and for the Maidenhead is -0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bromley is -0.155 and for the Maidenhead is 0.116.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

25%

32%

24%

19%

Maidenhead

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.71 goals and Maidenhead to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.39 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.86

1

5.43

2-3

2.06

2

4.15

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.45

2.98

2-3 goals

2.19

4.34

3.20

4+ goals

2.29

3.30

3.85

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.92

3.39

Un 1.5

2.67

3.45

2.98

Ov 2.5

1.93

6.48

3.04

Un 2.5

2.91

2.67

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.29

3.30

3.85

Un 3.5

2.34

3.98

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.76

3.87

No Goal

2.06

6.36

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.32

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.36

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Halifax at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

1.96

2.14

-4.3

Draw

3.52

3.89

-2.7

Halifax

3.49

3.62

-1.0

Over 2.5

1.84

1.98

-3.8

Under 2.5

1.94

2.02

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Wealdstone

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Feb

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barnet

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Sutton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Notts County

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Weymouth

A

4

3

W

O

G

26 Dec

Yeovil

H

6

1

W

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Barnet

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Torquay is -0.148 and for the Halifax is -0.089.
The home dynamic for the Torquay is 0.365 and the dynamic as a guest for the Halifax is -0.056.
The offensive ability for the Torquay is 0.385 and for the Halifax is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torquay is 0.182 and for the Halifax is -0.597.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torquay and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torquay

24%

28%

25%

22%

Halifax

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.57 goals and Halifax to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torquay to score 1.45 goals and Halifax to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Torquay to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.83

1

5.52

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.83

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.26

2.97

2-3 goals

1.95

4.74

3.63

4+ goals

2.02

3.43

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.18

3.94

Un 1.5

2.81

3.26

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.73

6.73

3.66

Un 2.5

2.82

2.73

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.43

4.67

Un 3.5

2.18

4.09

3.37

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.88

4.50

No Goal

1.98

6.15

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.43

3.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.15

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Notts County vs Chesterfield at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

2.03

2.26

-5.0

Draw

3.43

3.80

-2.8

Chesterfield

3.39

3.40

-0.1

Over 2.5

1.89

1.99

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.90

2.01

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Dag and Red

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N


Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance as a guest.
Chesterfield, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wrexham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Barnet

H

6

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Dec

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Notts County is 0.578 and for the Chesterfield is 0.296.
The home dynamic for the Notts County is 0.257 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chesterfield is 0.077.
The offensive ability for the Notts County is 0.43 and for the Chesterfield is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Notts County is 0.664 and for the Chesterfield is 0.09.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

23%

32%

25%

20%

Chesterfield

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.51 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.41 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.91

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.13

4+

3.92

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.90

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.