2021 02 19 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Willem II vs Utrecht at 19 February 2021
For Sittard vs Den Haag at 20 February 2021
VVV Venlo vs AZ Alkmaar at 20 February 2021
FC Emmen vs Zwolle at 20 February 2021
Waalwijk vs Heracles at 21 February 2021
Twente vs Feyenoord at 21 February 2021
Heerenveen vs Groningen at 21 February 2021
Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam at 21 February 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Vitesse at 21 February 2021


Willem II vs Utrecht at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

5.28

2.65

18.8

Draw

4.39

3.66

4.5

Utrecht

1.56

2.85

-29.0

Over 2.5

1.62

1.85

-7.7

Under 2.5

2.34

2.18

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Willem II, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.8 %, 4.5 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Feyenoord

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Jan

FC Emmen

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Zwolle

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Dec

Ajax

H

1

1

D

U

G


Utrecht in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

VVV Venlo

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Zwolle

H

3

3

D

O

G

27 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Heracles

H

2

0

W

U

N

12 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Groningen

H

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Willem II is -0.481 and for the Utrecht is 0.541.
The home dynamic for the Willem II is -0.521 and the dynamic as a guest for the Utrecht is -0.149.
The offensive ability for the Willem II is 0.607 and for the Utrecht is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Willem II is -0.545 and for the Utrecht is 0.116.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

23%

36%

18%

22%

Utrecht

21%

40%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 0.84 goals and Utrecht to score 2.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and the guest team Utrecht to win by 1.26 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.39 goals and Utrecht to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

4.52

1

5.85

2-3

2.08

2

4.18

4+

3.32

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.28

4

5.32

Un 1.5

4.52

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.85

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.17

Gg

1.65

Ov 3.5

3.32

NoG

2.52

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

4.42

2.38

2-3 goals

2.96

3.27

2.81

4+ goals

2.20

3.91

3.46

Ov 1.5

2.61

3.49

3.03

Un 1.5

2.83

4.42

2.38

Ov 2.5

2.09

7.04

2.63

Un 2.5

3.90

2.34

3.17

Ov 3.5

2.20

3.91

3.46

Un 3.5

2.92

3.56

2.66

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.70

3.58

No Goal

2.41

7.94

2.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.95

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.65

7.94

2.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


For Sittard vs Den Haag at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

1.61

2.00

-12.1

Draw

4.10

4.07

0.2

Den Haag

5.12

3.92

6.0

Over 2.5

1.71

1.88

-5.3

Under 2.5

2.17

2.13

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 6 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

For Sittard in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Heracles

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Ajax

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Heerenveen

A

3

1

W

O

G


Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Groningen

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Zwolle

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the For Sittard is 0.333 and for the Den Haag is -0.459.
The home dynamic for the For Sittard is -0.234 and the dynamic as a guest for the Den Haag is -0.026.
The offensive ability for the For Sittard is 0.63 and for the Den Haag is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the For Sittard is -0.664 and for the Den Haag is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

23%

24%

31%

23%

Den Haag

31%

41%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.96 goals and Den Haag to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.54 goals and Den Haag to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

4.24

1

6.02

2-3

2.02

2

4.31

4+

3.70

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.24

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.14

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.15

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.23

3.37

2.54

2-3 goals

1.70

5.09

4.66

4+ goals

2.00

3.46

4.74

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.37

4.69

Un 1.5

3.23

3.37

2.54

Ov 2.5

1.61

6.82

4.33

Un 2.5

2.79

2.80

3.52

Ov 3.5

2.00

3.46

4.74

Un 3.5

2.01

4.37

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.05

3.05

5.39

No Goal

1.95

6.66

2.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

5.60

4.41

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.66

2.79


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


VVV Venlo vs AZ Alkmaar at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and AZ Alkmaar for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

VVV Venlo

7.90

2.40

29.0

Draw

5.37

3.41

10.7

AZ Alkmaar

1.33

3.42

-45.9

Over 2.5

1.43

1.73

-12.1

Under 2.5

2.77

2.37

6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Draw, Under 2.5 (29 %, 10.7 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

VVV Venlo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance at home.
VVV Venlo, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

For Sittard

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Vitesse

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Twente

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Den Haag

A

4

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Willem II

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

4

L

O

G


AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance as a guest.
AZ Alkmaar, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Heerenveen

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

FC Emmen

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Jan

Utrecht

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Feyenoord

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Den Haag

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the VVV Venlo is 0.089 and for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the VVV Venlo is -0.701 and the dynamic as a guest for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.61.
The offensive ability for the VVV Venlo is 1 and for the AZ Alkmaar is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the VVV Venlo is -0.609 and for the AZ Alkmaar is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, AZ Alkmaar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

VVV Venlo

16%

37%

26%

21%

AZ Alkmaar

16%

51%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 0.68 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 2.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.31 goals in the game and the guest team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.53 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

40.00

0-1

6.13

1

7.25

2-3

1.92

2

3.85

4+

3.16

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.19

4

4.76

Un 1.5

6.13

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.73

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.36

Gg

1.41

Ov 3.5

3.16

NoG

3.45

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

6.52

2.01

2-3 goals

2.51

2.79

4.11

4+ goals

2.09

3.90

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.13

3.97

Un 1.5

2.86

6.52

2.01

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.14

3.23

Un 2.5

4.32

2.00

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.90

3.76

Un 3.5

2.58

3.23

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.49

2.65

4.50

No Goal

2.21

11.60

2.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.84

6.47

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

11.60

2.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


FC Emmen vs Zwolle at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

3.23

2.80

4.8

Draw

3.54

3.72

-1.4

Zwolle

2.14

2.68

-9.4

Over 2.5

1.83

1.76

2.2

Under 2.5

2.01

2.31

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 9.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Vitesse

H

1

4

L

O

G

12 Jan

Heracles

A

0

4

L

O

N

09 Jan

Twente

H

1

4

L

O

G


Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Utrecht

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Jan

Heracles

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Jan

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

For Sittard

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the FC Emmen is -0.852 and for the Zwolle is -0.185.
The home dynamic for the FC Emmen is -0.796 and the dynamic as a guest for the Zwolle is -0.087.
The offensive ability for the FC Emmen is -0.726 and for the Zwolle is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Emmen is -0.636 and for the Zwolle is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

23%

35%

20%

22%

Zwolle

18%

40%

24%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.12 goals and Zwolle to score 1.51 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Zwolle to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.4 goals and Zwolle to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

23.81

0-1

5.05

1

6.41

2-3

2.10

2

4.31

4+

3.11

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.08

Un 1.5

5.05

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.77

6+

26.32

Un 2.5

2.33

Gg

1.60

Ov 3.5

3.11

NoG

2.70