# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Willem II vs Utrecht at 19 February 2021**** For Sittard vs Den Haag at 20 February 2021**** VVV Venlo vs AZ Alkmaar at 20 February 2021**** FC Emmen vs Zwolle at 20 February 2021**** Waalwijk vs Heracles at 21 February 2021**** Twente vs Feyenoord at 21 February 2021**** Heerenveen vs Groningen at 21 February 2021**** Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam at 21 February 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Vitesse at 21 February 2021**

###
Willem II vs Utrecht at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Willem II** and **Utrecht** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Willem II |
5.28 |
2.65 |
18.8 |

Draw |
4.39 |
3.66 |
4.5 |

Utrecht |
1.56 |
2.85 |
-29.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.85 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.18 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Willem II, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.8 %, 4.5 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** at home**.

Willem II,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** as a guest**.

Utrecht,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Zwolle |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Willem II** is **-0.481** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.541.**

The home dynamic for the **Willem II** is **-0.521** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Utrecht** is **-0.149.**

The offensive ability for the **Willem II** is **0.607** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Willem II** is **-0.545** and for the **Utrecht** is **0.116.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Willem II** and the red line for guest team, **Utrecht. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Willem II |
23% |
36% |
18% |
22% |

Utrecht |
21% |
40% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **2.1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.94** goals in the game and the guest team **Utrecht ** to win by **1.26** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.33 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.00 |
0-1 |
4.52 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.32 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.28 |

4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.17 |

Gg |
1.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |

NoG |
2.52 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.83 |
4.42 |
2.38 |

2-3 goals |
2.96 |
3.27 |
2.81 |

4+ goals |
2.20 |
3.91 |
3.46 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.49 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
4.42 |
2.38 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
7.04 |
2.63 |

Un 2.5 |
3.90 |
2.34 |
3.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.91 |
3.46 |

Un 3.5 |
2.92 |
3.56 |
2.66 |

Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.70 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.41 |
7.94 |
2.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.95 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
7.94 |
2.16 |

####
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###
For Sittard vs Den Haag at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **Den Haag** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
1.61 |
2.00 |
-12.1 |

Draw |
4.10 |
4.07 |
0.2 |

Den Haag |
5.12 |
3.92 |
6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.88 |
-5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.13 |
0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Den Haag, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 6 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** as a guest**.

Den Haag,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **For Sittard** is **0.333** and for the **Den Haag** is **-0.459.**

The home dynamic for the **For Sittard** is **-0.234** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Den Haag** is **-0.026.**

The offensive ability for the **For Sittard** is **0.63** and for the **Den Haag** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **For Sittard** is **-0.664** and for the **Den Haag** is **-0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **Den Haag. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
23% |
24% |
31% |
23% |

Den Haag |
31% |
41% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.96 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **1.12** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Den Haag** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.23 |
3.37 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |
5.09 |
4.66 |

4+ goals |
2.00 |
3.46 |
4.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
4.37 |
4.69 |

Un 1.5 |
3.23 |
3.37 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
6.82 |
4.33 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.80 |
3.52 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.46 |
4.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.37 |
3.67 |

Goal-Goal |
2.05 |
3.05 |
5.39 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
6.66 |
2.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
5.60 |
4.41 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
6.66 |
2.79 |

####
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###
VVV Venlo vs AZ Alkmaar at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **VVV Venlo** and **AZ Alkmaar** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

VVV Venlo |
7.90 |
2.40 |
29.0 |

Draw |
5.37 |
3.41 |
10.7 |

AZ Alkmaar |
1.33 |
3.42 |
-45.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.43 |
1.73 |
-12.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.77 |
2.37 |
6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **VVV Venlo, Draw, Under 2.5 (29 %, 10.7 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** at home**.

VVV Venlo,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**AZ Alkmaar** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AZ Alkmaar** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance** as a guest**.

AZ Alkmaar,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Heerenveen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **VVV Venlo** is **0.089** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.701** and the dynamic as a guest for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.61.**

The offensive ability for the **VVV Venlo** is **1** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.609** and for the **AZ Alkmaar** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **VVV Venlo** and the red line for guest team, **AZ Alkmaar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

VVV Venlo |
16% |
37% |
26% |
21% |

AZ Alkmaar |
16% |
51% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **0.68 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **2.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.31** goals in the game and the guest team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **1.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **VVV Venlo** to score **1.53 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
40.00 |
0-1 |
6.13 |

1 |
7.25 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
3.16 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.76 |
Un 1.5 |
6.13 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.36 |

Gg |
1.41 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.16 |

NoG |
3.45 |
Un 3.5 |
1.46 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
6.52 |
2.01 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
2.79 |
4.11 |

4+ goals |
2.09 |
3.90 |
3.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.13 |
3.97 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
6.52 |
2.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.14 |
3.23 |

Un 2.5 |
4.32 |
2.00 |
3.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.90 |
3.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.23 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.65 |
4.50 |

No Goal |
2.21 |
11.60 |
2.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.47 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
11.60 |
2.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
FC Emmen vs Zwolle at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
3.23 |
2.80 |
4.8 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.72 |
-1.4 |

Zwolle |
2.14 |
2.68 |
-9.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.76 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.31 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 9.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.852** and for the **Zwolle** is **-0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.796** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Zwolle** is **-0.087.**

The offensive ability for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.726** and for the **Zwolle** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **FC Emmen** is **-0.636** and for the **Zwolle** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
23% |
35% |
20% |
22% |

Zwolle |
18% |
40% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.51 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the guest team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
23.81 |
0-1 |
5.05 |

1 |
6.41 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.11 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.08 |
Un 1.5 |
5.05 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |

6+ |
26.32 |
Un 2.5 |
2.33 |

Gg |
1.60 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |

NoG |
2.70 |