2021 02 19 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Betis vs Getafe at 19 February 2021
Ath Madrid vs Levante at 20 February 2021
Valladolid vs Real Madrid at 20 February 2021
Valencia vs Celta at 20 February 2021
Elche vs Eibar at 20 February 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Villarreal at 21 February 2021
Barcelona vs Cadiz at 21 February 2021
Sociedad vs Alaves at 21 February 2021
Huesca vs Granada at 21 February 2021
Osasuna vs Sevilla at 22 February 2021


Betis vs Getafe at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

2.11

1.92

4.7

Draw

3.06

4.00

-7.7

Getafe

4.22

4.37

-0.8

Over 2.5

2.47

1.97

10.3

Under 2.5

1.58

2.03

-14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Betis, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Betis in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Betis in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Betis’s performance at home.
Betis, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Betis scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Betis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Villarreal

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Barcelona

H

2

3

L

O

G

01 Feb

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Sociedad

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Jan

Celta

H

2

1

W

O

G

11 Jan

Huesca

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Levante

A

3

4

L

O

G


Getafe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Elche

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Valladolid

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Betis is 0.467 and for the Getafe is -0.57.
The home dynamic for the Betis is -0.15 and the dynamic as a guest for the Getafe is 0.097.
The offensive ability for the Betis is 1 and for the Getafe is -0.43.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Betis is -0.245 and for the Getafe is -0.313.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

20%

30%

25%

25%

Getafe

37%

37%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.31 goals and Getafe to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.55 goals and Getafe to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.91

1

5.43

2-3

2.04

2

4.22

4+

3.95

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

3.56

3.56

2-3 goals

1.79

4.42

4.68

4+ goals

1.87

3.78

4.96

Ov 1.5

1.81

4.18

4.77

Un 1.5

2.29

3.56

3.56

Ov 2.5

1.59

7.57

4.16

Un 2.5

2.42

2.69

4.65

Ov 3.5

1.87

3.78

4.96

Un 3.5

1.93

4.08

4.22

Goal-Goal

2.25

2.85

4.88

No Goal

1.66

6.83

3.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

5.93

3.82

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.83

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ath Madrid vs Levante at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.55

1.86

-10.8

Draw

4.00

4.12

-0.7

Levante

6.85

4.55

7.4

Over 2.5

1.98

2.11

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.87

1.90

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante (7.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 29 points, 87.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Granada

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Celta

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Cadiz

A

4

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Valencia

H

3

1

W

O

G

21 Jan

Eibar

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Sevilla

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Alaves

A

2

1

W

O

G


Levante in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance as a guest.
Levante, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Granada

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Real Madrid

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Cadiz

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Villarreal

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Ath Madrid is 0.63 and for the Levante is -0.022.
The home dynamic for the Ath Madrid is 0.76 and the dynamic as a guest for the Levante is -0.21.
The offensive ability for the Ath Madrid is 1 and for the Levante is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Madrid is -1 and for the Levante is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Levante.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

21%

31%

25%

23%

Levante

47%

25%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.84 goals and Levante to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.19 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.51 goals and Levante to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.42

0-1

3.42

1

5.10

2-3

2.07

2

4.29

4+

4.42

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.42

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.03

3.04

5.62

2-3 goals

1.65

6.19

4.27

4+ goals

2.19

3.28

4.19

Ov 1.5

1.79

4.82

4.25

Un 1.5

2.03

3.04

5.62

Ov 2.5

1.72

6.90

3.66

Un 2.5

2.00

3.02

5.90

Ov 3.5

2.19

3.28

4.19

Un 3.5

1.78

4.45

4.70

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.88

3.85

No Goal

1.55

6.01

5.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.01

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

1.71

6.01

5.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valladolid vs Real Madrid at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valladolid and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valladolid

6.68

2.98

18.6

Draw

4.33

3.77

3.4

Real Madrid

1.51

2.51

-26.4

Over 2.5

1.81

1.86

-1.5

Under 2.5

2.05

2.16

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valladolid, Draw (18.6 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valladolid in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance at home.
Valladolid, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Eibar

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Alaves

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Jan

Huesca

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Levante

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Elche

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Valencia

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Valencia

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Getafe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huesca

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Levante

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Alaves

A

4

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Valladolid is -0.496 and for the Real Madrid is 0.541.
The home dynamic for the Valladolid is -0.114 and the dynamic as a guest for the Real Madrid is 0.692.
The offensive ability for the Valladolid is 0.356 and for the Real Madrid is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valladolid is -1 and for the Real Madrid is 0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valladolid and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valladolid

27%

34%

24%

16%

Real Madrid

22%

36%

24%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valladolid to score 0.68 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 1.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valladolid to score 1.28 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

4.41

1

5.92

2-3

2.06

2

4.24

4+

3.47

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.68

Un 1.5

4.41

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.86

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.16

Gg

1.74

Ov 3.5

3.47

NoG

2.34

Un 3.5

1.40

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.91

2.39

2-3 goals

2.84

4.02

2.51

4+ goals

3.13

3.35

2.62

Ov 1.5

2.94

3.74

2.55

Un 1.5

3.07

3.91

2.39

Ov 2.5

2.55

6.26

2.23

Un 2.5

3.67

2.59

2.93

Ov 3.5

3.13

3.35

2.62

Un 3.5

2.91

3.98

2.47

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.77

3.02

No Goal

2.67

7.36

2.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

5.27

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.71

7.36

2.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Valencia vs Celta at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Valencia

2.50

2.42

1.3

Draw

3.23

3.82

-4.8

Celta

2.99

3.09

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.21

1.96

5.8

Under 2.5

1.69

2.04

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Valencia, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Valencia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valencia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Valencia’s performance at home.
Valencia, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Valencia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valencia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

07 Feb

Ath Bilbao

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Elche

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Ath Madrid

A

1

3

L

O

G

21 Jan

Osasuna

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Valladolid

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Dec

Granada

A

1

2

L

O

G


Celta in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had one win, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Elche

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Granada

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Jan

Betis

A

1

2

L

O

G

08 Jan

Villarreal

H

0

4

L

O

N

02 Jan

Real Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Huesca

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Valencia is -0.052 and for the Celta is -0.089.
The home dynamic for the Valencia is -0.21 and the dynamic as a guest for the Celta is 0.087.
The offensive ability for the Valencia is 0.607 and for the Celta is 0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Valencia is -0.245 and for the Celta is -0.597.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Valencia and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Valencia

25%

32%

26%

18%

Celta

31%

33%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.21 goals and Celta to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Valencia to score 1.37 goals and Celta to score 1.2 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.94

1

5.62

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.79

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.94

5

12.99

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-