2021 02 19 League One (England)

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Milton Keynes Dons vs Northampton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Milton Keynes Dons	1.62	1.96	-10.7
Draw	3.83	3.86	-0.2
Northampton	5.51	4.31	5.1
Over 2.5	2.05	2.13	-1.8
Under 2.5	1.78	1.88	-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
13 Feb	Hull	A	1	0	W	U	N
09 Feb	Rochdale	A	4	1	W	O	G
06 Feb	Sunderland	H	2	2	D	O	G
30 Jan	AFC Wimbledon	A	2	0	W	U	N
26 Jan	Charlton	H	0	1	L	U	N
19 Jan	Fleetwood Town	H	3	1	W	O	G
16 Jan	Peterboro	A	0	3	L	O	N
29 Dec	Swindon	A	4	1	W	O	G

Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
16 Feb	Ipswich	A	0	0	D	U	N
13 Feb	Burton	H	0	2	L	U	N
09 Feb	Wigan	H	0	1	L	U	N
06 Feb	Accrington	A	0	0	D	U	N
02 Feb	Blackpool	A	0	2	L	U	N
26 Jan	Fleetwood Town	A	0	0	D	U	N
23 Jan	Lincoln	A	1	2	L	O	G
02 Jan	Sunderland	H	0	0	D	U	N

The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.533 and for the Northampton is -0.504.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.174 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is 0.077.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.704 and for the Northampton is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.118 and for the Northampton is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Milton Keynes Dons	18%	35%	28%	19%
Northampton	38%	35%	17%	10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.69 goals and Northampton to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.47 goals and Northampton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	14.29	0-1	3.70
1	5.00	2-3	1.97
2	3.82	4+	4.50
3	4.07	Ov 1.5	1.37
4	6.85	Un 1.5	3.70
5	17.24	Ov 2.5	2.14
6+	55.56	Un 2.5	1.88
Gg	1.99	Ov 3.5	4.50
NoG	2.01	Un 3.5	1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	1.99	3.86	4.22
2-3 goals	1.84	4.06	4.75
4+ goals	2.27	3.47	3.70
Ov 1.5	1.95	3.86	4.37
Un 1.5	1.99	3.86	4.22
Ov 2.5	1.75	7.31	3.44
Un 2.5	2.20	2.73	5.60
Ov 3.5	2.27	3.47	3.70
Un 3.5	1.89	3.99	4.55
Goal-Goal	2.58	2.66	4.23
No Goal	1.58	7.10	4.44
G-G+Ov 2.5	1.94	5.91	3.18
NG+Un 2.5	1.68	7.10	4.28

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Swindon vs Crewe at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Swindon	3.45	2.61	9.3
Draw	3.42	3.69	-2.1
Crewe	2.10	2.89	-13.0
Over 2.5	1.98	2.04	-1.5
Under 2.5	1.84	1.96	-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
09 Feb	Portsmouth	A	0	2	L	U	N
06 Feb	Shrewsbury	H	0	1	L	U	N
02 Feb	Wigan	H	1	0	W	U	N
30 Jan	Hull	A	0	1	L	U	N
26 Jan	Plymouth	H	0	2	L	U	N
23 Jan	Charlton	A	2	2	D	O	G
16 Jan	Doncaster	H	1	2	L	O	G
09 Jan	Ipswich	A	3	2	W	O	G

Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
06 Feb	Peterboro	A	0	2	L	U	N
02 Feb	Shrewsbury	A	1	0	W	U	N
30 Jan	Ipswich	H	1	1	D	U	G
26 Jan	Gillingham	A	1	4	L	O	G
23 Jan	AFC Wimbledon	H	1	1	D	U	G
19 Jan	Bristol Rvs	H	3	2	W	O	G
16 Jan	Plymouth	A	1	1	D	U	G
09 Jan	Rochdale	A	3	3	D	O	G

The form score for the Swindon is -0.519 and for the Crewe is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.118.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is -0.385 and for the Crewe is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.573 and for the Crewe is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Swindon	27%	32%	24%	16%
Crewe	26%	37%	25%	12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.02 goals and Crewe to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Crewe to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.3 goals and Crewe to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.89	0-1	3.88
1	5.38	2-3	2.02
2	4.00	4+	4.07
3	4.10	Ov 1.5	1.35
4	6.33	Un 1.5	3.88
5	14.49	Ov 2.5	2.04
6+	52.63	Un 2.5	1.97
Gg	1.87	Ov 3.5	4.07
NoG	2.16	Un 3.5	1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	3.00	3.58	2.58
2-3 goals	2.53	4.12	2.76
4+ goals	2.41	3.15	3.73
Ov 1.5	2.49	3.74	3.02
Un 1.5	3.00	3.58	2.58
Ov 2.5	2.09	6.28	2.75
Un 2.5	3.41	2.65	3.04
Ov 3.5	2.41	3.15	3.73
Un 3.5	2.68	3.92	2.70
Goal-Goal	2.81	2.70	3.66
No Goal	2.40	6.44	2.33
G-G+Ov 2.5	2.18	5.31	2.84
NG+Un 2.5	2.60	6.44	2.32

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Plymouth at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Rochdale	3.34	2.68	7.4
Draw	3.45	3.58	-1.1
Plymouth	2.13	2.87	-12.1
Over 2.5	1.74	2.14	-10.7
Under 2.5	2.10	1.88	5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
16 Feb	Blackpool	A	0	1	L	U	N
09 Feb	Milton Keynes Dons	H	1	4	L	O	G
06 Feb	Charlton	H	0	2	L	U	N
30 Jan	Bristol Rvs	A	2	1	W	O	G
26 Jan	Oxford	H	3	4	L	O	G
23 Jan	Gillingham	A	2	2	D	O	G
19 Jan	Doncaster	A	0	1	L	U	N
16 Jan	Wigan	H	3	3	D	O	G

Plymouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
13 Feb	Fleetwood Town	H	1	0	W	U	N
09 Feb	Accrington	A	1	0	W	U	N
06 Feb	Portsmouth	A	2	2	D	O	G
30 Jan	Accrington	H	2	2	D	O	G
26 Jan	Swindon	A	2	0	W	U	N
19 Jan	Sunderland	A	2	1	W	O	G
16 Jan	Crewe	H	1	1	D	U	G
02 Jan	Gillingham	H	1	0	W	U	N

The form score for the Rochdale is -0.541 and for the Plymouth is 0.667.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.317 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.528.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is 0.259 and for the Plymouth is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -1 and for the Plymouth is 0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Rochdale	27%	36%	23%	14%
Plymouth	27%	37%	26%	10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.15 goals and Plymouth to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Plymouth to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.25 goals and Plymouth to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.70	0-1	3.70
1	5.08	2-3	1.97
2	3.79	4+	4.44
3	4.12	Ov 1.5	1.37
4	6.71	Un 1.5	3.70
5	16.39	Ov 2.5	2.14
6+	66.67	Un 2.5	1.87
Gg	1.87	Ov 3.5	4.44
NoG	2.14	Un 3.5	1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	2.73	3.70	2.76
2-3 goals	2.74	3.78	2.70
4+ goals	2.50	3.08	3.63
Ov 1.5	2.66	3.54	2.93
Un 1.5	2.73	3.70	2.76
Ov 2.5	2.20	6.41	2.57
Un 2.5	3.32	2.58	3.22
Ov 3.5	2.50	3.08	3.63
Un 3.5	2.74	3.75	2.72
Goal-Goal	3.07	2.58	3.47
No Goal	2.33	6.40	2.41
G-G+Ov 2.5	2.30	5.49	2.60
NG+Un 2.5	2.48	6.40	2.41

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Peterboro vs AFC Wimbledon at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Peterboro	1.60	1.93	-10.7
Draw	4.01	3.85	1.0
AFC Wimbledon	5.37	4.48	3.7
Over 2.5	1.84	2.18	-8.5
Under 2.5	1.99	1.85	3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, AFC Wimbledon, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.7 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
16 Feb	Gillingham	A	3	1	W	O	G
09 Feb	Ipswich	H	2	1	W	O	G
06 Feb	Crewe	H	2	0	W	U	N
30 Jan	Shrewsbury	A	0	2	L	U	N
26 Jan	Bristol Rvs	H	0	0	D	U	N
23 Jan	Ipswich	A	1	0	W	U	N
19 Jan	Charlton	H	2	1	W	O	G
16 Jan	Milton Keynes Dons	H	3	0	W	O	N

AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
06 Feb	Wigan	A	3	2	W	O	G
30 Jan	Milton Keynes Dons	H	0	2	L	U	N
26 Jan	Doncaster	A	0	2	L	U	N
23 Jan	Crewe	A	1	1	D	U	G
19 Jan	Portsmouth	A	0	4	L	O	N
16 Jan	Sunderland	H	0	3	L	O	N
02 Jan	Lincoln	H	1	2	L	O	G
26 Dec	Oxford	A	0	2	L	U	N

The form score for the Peterboro is 0.533 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.444.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.305 and the dynamic as a guest for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.262.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.385 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.118 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Peterboro	17%	38%	27%	18%
AFC Wimbledon	39%	35%	17%	9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.85 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.47 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	14.93	0-1	3.64
1	4.81	2-3	1.96
2	3.76	4+	4.67
3	4.08	Ov 1.5	1.38
4	6.99	Un 1.5	3.64
5	18.18	Ov 2.5	2.18
6+	62.50	Un 2.5	1.85
Gg	1.99	Ov 3.5	4.67
NoG	2.01	Un 3.5	1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

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