# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Milton Keynes Dons vs Northampton at 20 February 2021**** Swindon vs Crewe at 20 February 2021**** Rochdale vs Plymouth at 20 February 2021**** Peterboro vs AFC Wimbledon at 20 February 2021**** Ipswich vs Oxford at 20 February 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Charlton at 20 February 2021**** Doncaster vs Hull at 20 February 2021**** Burton vs Sunderland at 20 February 2021**** Accrington vs Shrewsbury at 20 February 2021**** Wigan vs Lincoln at 20 February 2021**** Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs at 20 February 2021**** Portsmouth vs Blackpool at 20 February 2021**

###
Milton Keynes Dons vs Northampton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Milton Keynes Dons** and **Northampton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Milton Keynes Dons |
1.62 |
1.96 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
3.83 |
3.86 |
-0.2 |

Northampton |
5.51 |
4.31 |
5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.13 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.88 |
-3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton (5.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** at home**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton** didn’t score to any of them.** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Northampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.533** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.504.**

The home dynamic for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.174** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Northampton** is **0.077.**

The offensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.704** and for the **Northampton** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.118** and for the **Northampton** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Milton Keynes Dons** and the red line for guest team, **Northampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Milton Keynes Dons |
18% |
35% |
28% |
19% |

Northampton |
38% |
35% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.98** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.86 |
4.22 |

2-3 goals |
1.84 |
4.06 |
4.75 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.47 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
3.86 |
4.37 |

Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.86 |
4.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.31 |
3.44 |

Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.73 |
5.60 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.47 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.99 |
4.55 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.66 |
4.23 |

No Goal |
1.58 |
7.10 |
4.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.91 |
3.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.10 |
4.28 |

####
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###
Swindon vs Crewe at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
3.45 |
2.61 |
9.3 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.69 |
-2.1 |

Crewe |
2.10 |
2.89 |
-13.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.04 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.96 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon (9.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-0.519** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.078** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Crewe** is **-0.118.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.385** and for the **Crewe** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.573** and for the **Crewe** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
27% |
32% |
24% |
16% |

Crewe |
26% |
37% |
25% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the guest team **Crewe ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.58 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.53 |
4.12 |
2.76 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
3.15 |
3.73 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.49 |
3.74 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
3.00 |
3.58 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.28 |
2.75 |

Un 2.5 |
3.41 |
2.65 |
3.04 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.15 |
3.73 |

Un 3.5 |
2.68 |
3.92 |
2.70 |

Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.70 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.40 |
6.44 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.31 |
2.84 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
6.44 |
2.32 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rochdale vs Plymouth at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Plymouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.34 |
2.68 |
7.4 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.58 |
-1.1 |

Plymouth |
2.13 |
2.87 |
-12.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.14 |
-10.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.10 |
1.88 |
5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Plymouth,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Rochdale** is **-0.541** and for the **Plymouth** is **0.667.**

The home dynamic for the **Rochdale** is **-0.317** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Plymouth** is **-0.528.**

The offensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **0.259** and for the **Plymouth** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-1** and for the **Plymouth** is **0.227.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Plymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
27% |
36% |
23% |
14% |

Plymouth |
27% |
37% |
26% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the guest team **Plymouth ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.73 |
3.70 |
2.76 |

2-3 goals |
2.74 |
3.78 |
2.70 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.08 |
3.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.54 |
2.93 |

Un 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.70 |
2.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.41 |
2.57 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.58 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.08 |
3.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.74 |
3.75 |
2.72 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.58 |
3.47 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.49 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

####
Go to Top

###
Peterboro vs AFC Wimbledon at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **AFC Wimbledon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
1.60 |
1.93 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
4.01 |
3.85 |
1.0 |

AFC Wimbledon |
5.37 |
4.48 |
3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.18 |
-8.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.85 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, AFC Wimbledon, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.7 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** as a guest**.

AFC Wimbledon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.533** and for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.444.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.305** and the dynamic as a guest for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **0.262.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.385** and for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.118** and for the **AFC Wimbledon** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **AFC Wimbledon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
17% |
38% |
27% |
18% |

AFC Wimbledon |
39% |
35% |
17% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.85 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **1.08** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.47 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |