2021 02 19 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Milton Keynes Dons vs Northampton at 20 February 2021
Swindon vs Crewe at 20 February 2021
Rochdale vs Plymouth at 20 February 2021
Peterboro vs AFC Wimbledon at 20 February 2021
Ipswich vs Oxford at 20 February 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton at 20 February 2021
Doncaster vs Hull at 20 February 2021
Burton vs Sunderland at 20 February 2021
Accrington vs Shrewsbury at 20 February 2021
Wigan vs Lincoln at 20 February 2021
Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs at 20 February 2021
Portsmouth vs Blackpool at 20 February 2021


Milton Keynes Dons vs Northampton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Milton Keynes Dons and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Milton Keynes Dons

1.62

1.96

-10.7

Draw

3.83

3.86

-0.2

Northampton

5.51

4.31

5.1

Over 2.5

2.05

2.13

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.78

1.88

-3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance at home.
Milton Keynes Dons, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Hull

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Rochdale

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Jan

Fleetwood Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Peterboro

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

Swindon

A

4

1

W

O

G


Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Fleetwood Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.533 and for the Northampton is -0.504.
The home dynamic for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.174 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is 0.077.
The offensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.704 and for the Northampton is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.118 and for the Northampton is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Milton Keynes Dons and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Milton Keynes Dons

18%

35%

28%

19%

Northampton

38%

35%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.69 goals and Northampton to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.47 goals and Northampton to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.70

1

5.00

2-3

1.97

2

3.82

4+

4.50

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.70

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.86

4.22

2-3 goals

1.84

4.06

4.75

4+ goals

2.27

3.47

3.70

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.86

4.37

Un 1.5

1.99

3.86

4.22

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.31

3.44

Un 2.5

2.20

2.73

5.60

Ov 3.5

2.27

3.47

3.70

Un 3.5

1.89

3.99

4.55

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.66

4.23

No Goal

1.58

7.10

4.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.91

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

7.10

4.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Crewe at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

3.45

2.61

9.3

Draw

3.42

3.69

-2.1

Crewe

2.10

2.89

-13.0

Over 2.5

1.98

2.04

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.84

1.96

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon (9.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hull

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Plymouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Doncaster

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Ipswich

A

3

2

W

O

G


Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 35.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Ipswich

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Gillingham

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Bristol Rvs

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Plymouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Rochdale

A

3

3

D

O

G


The form score for the Swindon is -0.519 and for the Crewe is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Crewe is -0.118.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is -0.385 and for the Crewe is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.573 and for the Crewe is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

27%

32%

24%

16%

Crewe

26%

37%

25%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.02 goals and Crewe to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Crewe to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.3 goals and Crewe to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.88

1

5.38

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.07

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

3.58

2.58

2-3 goals

2.53

4.12

2.76

4+ goals

2.41

3.15

3.73

Ov 1.5

2.49

3.74

3.02

Un 1.5

3.00

3.58

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.09

6.28

2.75

Un 2.5

3.41

2.65

3.04

Ov 3.5

2.41

3.15

3.73

Un 3.5

2.68

3.92

2.70

Goal-Goal

2.81

2.70

3.66

No Goal

2.40

6.44

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.31

2.84

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

6.44

2.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Plymouth at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.34

2.68

7.4

Draw

3.45

3.58

-1.1

Plymouth

2.13

2.87

-12.1

Over 2.5

1.74

2.14

-10.7

Under 2.5

2.10

1.88

5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Under 2.5 (7.4 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 21.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Oxford

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Wigan

H

3

3

D

O

G


Plymouth in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Portsmouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Rochdale is -0.541 and for the Plymouth is 0.667.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.317 and the dynamic as a guest for the Plymouth is -0.528.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is 0.259 and for the Plymouth is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -1 and for the Plymouth is 0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

27%

36%

23%

14%

Plymouth

27%

37%

26%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.15 goals and Plymouth to score 1.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Plymouth to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.25 goals and Plymouth to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.70

1

5.08

2-3

1.97

2

3.79

4+

4.44

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.70

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.70

2.76

2-3 goals

2.74

3.78

2.70

4+ goals

2.50

3.08

3.63

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.54

2.93

Un 1.5

2.73

3.70

2.76

Ov 2.5

2.20

6.41

2.57

Un 2.5

3.32

2.58

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.08

3.63

Un 3.5

2.74

3.75

2.72

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.58

3.47

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

5.49

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

6.40

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Peterboro vs AFC Wimbledon at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.60

1.93

-10.7

Draw

4.01

3.85

1.0

AFC Wimbledon

5.37

4.48

3.7

Over 2.5

1.84

2.18

-8.5

Under 2.5

1.99

1.85

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, AFC Wimbledon, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3.7 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 32 points, 82.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Gillingham

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Crewe

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Shrewsbury

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Charlton

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

0

W

O

N


AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Wigan

A

3

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Doncaster

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Portsmouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oxford

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Peterboro is 0.533 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.444.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.305 and the dynamic as a guest for the AFC Wimbledon is 0.262.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.385 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.118 and for the AFC Wimbledon is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

17%

38%

27%

18%

AFC Wimbledon

39%

35%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.85 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.47 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.93

0-1

3.64

1

4.81

2-3

1.96

2

3.76

4+

4.67

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.64

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at