# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Crawley Town vs Colchester at 20 February 2021**** Stevenage vs Walsall at 20 February 2021**** Southend vs Bolton at 20 February 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Harrogate at 20 February 2021**** Salford vs Carlisle at 20 February 2021**** Mansfield vs Cambridge at 20 February 2021**** Exeter vs Grimsby at 20 February 2021**** Cheltenham vs Bradford at 20 February 2021**** Tranmere vs Oldham at 20 February 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Port Vale at 20 February 2021**** Barrow vs Morecambe at 20 February 2021**** Newport County vs Forest Green at 21 February 2021**

###
Crawley Town vs Colchester at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crawley Town** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crawley Town |
2.16 |
2.30 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.65 |
-1.9 |

Colchester |
3.30 |
3.42 |
-1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.14 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.88 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** at home**.

Crawley Town,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had one win, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.259** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.319.**

The home dynamic for the **Crawley Town** is **0.006** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Colchester** is **-0.015.**

The offensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **0.259** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Crawley Town** is **-0.209** and for the **Colchester** is **-0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crawley Town** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crawley Town |
23% |
36% |
24% |
17% |

Colchester |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Crawley Town ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crawley Town** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.68 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
2.26 |
3.76 |
3.42 |

4+ goals |
2.28 |
3.42 |
3.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.65 |
3.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.68 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
7.06 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.57 |
3.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.28 |
3.42 |
3.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.73 |
3.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.78 |
2.62 |
3.87 |

No Goal |
1.94 |
6.40 |
3.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.85 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.40 |
2.99 |

####
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###
Stevenage vs Walsall at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Walsall** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
2.91 |
2.62 |
3.8 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.62 |
-4.6 |

Walsall |
2.54 |
2.92 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.24 |
1.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.81 |
-6.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** as a guest**.

Walsall,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 10 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Salford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Stevenage** is **0.17** and for the **Walsall** is **-0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Stevenage** is **-0.401** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Walsall** is **0.21.**

The offensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **0.333** and for the **Walsall** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stevenage** is **-0.091** and for the **Walsall** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Walsall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
30% |
32% |
26% |
13% |

Walsall |
31% |
36% |
21% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Walsall** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.23 |
2.75 |

2-3 goals |
2.34 |
4.31 |
2.94 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.81 |
3.00 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.23 |
2.75 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.34 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
3.15 |
2.69 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |

Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.83 |
2.87 |

Goal-Goal |
2.93 |
2.63 |
3.59 |

No Goal |
2.39 |
5.59 |
2.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.29 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.59 |
2.56 |

####
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###
Southend vs Bolton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southend** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southend |
3.78 |
2.85 |
8.6 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.62 |
-1.6 |

Bolton |
2.00 |
2.69 |
-12.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.28 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.78 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend (8.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** at home**.

Southend,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Southend** is **-0.43** and for the **Bolton** is **0.393.**

The home dynamic for the **Southend** is **-0.904** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bolton** is **0.2.**

The offensive ability for the **Southend** is **0.311** and for the **Bolton** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Southend** is **-0.064** and for the **Bolton** is **-0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southend** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southend |
33% |
31% |
24% |
12% |

Bolton |
30% |
36% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southend** to score **0.91 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the guest team **Bolton ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southend** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.26 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.83 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.26 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.83 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.37 |
3.13 |
2.60 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
4.46 |
2.64 |

4+ goals |
3.04 |
3.00 |
2.96 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.89 |
2.73 |

Un 1.5 |
3.37 |
3.13 |
2.60 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.35 |
2.43 |

Un 2.5 |
3.45 |
2.71 |
2.93 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.04 |
3.00 |
2.96 |

Un 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.83 |
2.63 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.64 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.68 |
5.41 |
2.26 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.23 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.41 |
2.36 |

####
Go to Top

###
Scunthorpe vs Harrogate at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Harrogate** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
3.21 |
2.63 |
6.9 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.61 |
-3.1 |

Harrogate |
2.28 |
2.92 |
-9.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.23 |
-1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.81 |
-3.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (6.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** as a guest**.

Harrogate,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Feb |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Salford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.111** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.2.**

The home dynamic for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.305** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Harrogate** is **0.241.**

The offensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.385** and for the **Harrogate** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.364** and for the **Harrogate** is **-0.545.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Harrogate. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
29% |
34% |
24% |
13% |

Harrogate |
31% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.28** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Harrogate** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.65 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |