2021 02 19 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Crawley Town vs Colchester at 20 February 2021
Stevenage vs Walsall at 20 February 2021
Southend vs Bolton at 20 February 2021
Scunthorpe vs Harrogate at 20 February 2021
Salford vs Carlisle at 20 February 2021
Mansfield vs Cambridge at 20 February 2021
Exeter vs Grimsby at 20 February 2021
Cheltenham vs Bradford at 20 February 2021
Tranmere vs Oldham at 20 February 2021
Leyton Orient vs Port Vale at 20 February 2021
Barrow vs Morecambe at 20 February 2021
Newport County vs Forest Green at 21 February 2021


Crawley Town vs Colchester at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Crawley Town and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Crawley Town

2.16

2.30

-2.8

Draw

3.41

3.65

-1.9

Colchester

3.30

3.42

-1.1

Over 2.5

2.02

2.14

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.80

1.88

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Crawley Town in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance at home.
Crawley Town, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Harrogate

H

1

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

3

L

O

G

02 Jan

Bolton

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

2

1

W

O

G


Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Mansfield

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Morecambe

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Cheltenham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Southend

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Crawley Town is -0.259 and for the Colchester is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the Crawley Town is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Colchester is -0.015.
The offensive ability for the Crawley Town is 0.259 and for the Colchester is -0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Crawley Town is -0.209 and for the Colchester is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crawley Town and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Crawley Town

23%

36%

24%

17%

Colchester

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.4 goals and Colchester to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Crawley Town to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crawley Town to score 1.35 goals and Colchester to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.62

1

4.98

2-3

2.02

2

3.91

4+

4.42

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.62

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.42

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.68

3.21

2-3 goals

2.26

3.76

3.42

4+ goals

2.28

3.42

3.70

Ov 1.5

2.27

3.65

3.50

Un 1.5

2.40

3.68

3.21

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.06

2.95

Un 2.5

2.79

2.57

3.97

Ov 3.5

2.28

3.42

3.70

Un 3.5

2.31

3.73

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.62

3.87

No Goal

1.94

6.40

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.85

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.40

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stevenage vs Walsall at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Walsall for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

2.91

2.62

3.8

Draw

3.10

3.62

-4.6

Walsall

2.54

2.92

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.29

2.24

1.0

Under 2.5

1.62

1.81

-6.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Crawley Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Exeter

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G


Walsall in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance as a guest.
Walsall, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Port Vale

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Carlisle

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Dec

Scunthorpe

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Salford

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Stevenage is 0.17 and for the Walsall is -0.163.
The home dynamic for the Stevenage is -0.401 and the dynamic as a guest for the Walsall is 0.21.
The offensive ability for the Stevenage is 0.333 and for the Walsall is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stevenage is -0.091 and for the Walsall is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Walsall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

30%

32%

26%

13%

Walsall

31%

36%

21%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.05 goals and Walsall to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.21 goals and Walsall to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.37

1

4.88

2-3

2.04

2

3.89

4+

4.76

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.23

2.75

2-3 goals

2.34

4.31

2.94

4+ goals

2.88

3.00

3.13

Ov 1.5

2.48

3.81

3.00

Un 1.5

3.06

3.23

2.75

Ov 2.5

2.18

6.34

2.61

Un 2.5

3.15

2.69

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.88

3.00

3.13

Un 3.5

2.57

3.83

2.87

Goal-Goal

2.93

2.63

3.59

No Goal

2.39

5.59

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.29

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.50

5.59

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Southend vs Bolton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southend

3.78

2.85

8.6

Draw

3.42

3.62

-1.6

Bolton

2.00

2.69

-12.8

Over 2.5

2.12

2.28

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.72

1.78

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend (8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southend in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance at home.
Southend, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Cambridge

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Newport County

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Port Vale

A

1

5

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bradford

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N


Bolton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Stevenage

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Leyton Orient

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Tranmere

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Cheltenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Exeter

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Crawley Town

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Southend is -0.43 and for the Bolton is 0.393.
The home dynamic for the Southend is -0.904 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bolton is 0.2.
The offensive ability for the Southend is 0.311 and for the Bolton is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southend is -0.064 and for the Bolton is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southend

33%

31%

24%

12%

Bolton

30%

36%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.91 goals and Bolton to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Bolton to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.15 goals and Bolton to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.26

1

4.78

2-3

2.06

2

3.92

4+

4.83

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.26

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.37

3.13

2.60

2-3 goals

2.52

4.46

2.64

4+ goals

3.04

3.00

2.96

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.89

2.73

Un 1.5

3.37

3.13

2.60

Ov 2.5

2.32

6.35

2.43

Un 2.5

3.45

2.71

2.93

Ov 3.5

3.04

3.00

2.96

Un 3.5

2.79

3.83

2.63

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.64

3.41

No Goal

2.68

5.41

2.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.23

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.78

5.41

2.36


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Scunthorpe vs Harrogate at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Harrogate for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

3.21

2.63

6.9

Draw

3.25

3.61

-3.1

Harrogate

2.28

2.92

-9.6

Over 2.5

2.17

2.23

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.69

1.81

-3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (6.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Colchester

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Port Vale

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Mansfield

H

2

3

L

O

G


Harrogate in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance as a guest.
Harrogate, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 11 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

16 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Crawley Town

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Salford

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Exeter

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Scunthorpe is 0.111 and for the Harrogate is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Scunthorpe is -0.305 and the dynamic as a guest for the Harrogate is 0.241.
The offensive ability for the Scunthorpe is 0.385 and for the Harrogate is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Scunthorpe is 0.364 and for the Harrogate is -0.545.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Harrogate.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

29%

34%

24%

13%

Harrogate

31%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.01 goals and Harrogate to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.22 goals and Harrogate to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.40

1

4.85

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.65

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.09

Un 1.5

3.40

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.65

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-