# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Brest vs Lyon at 19 February 2021**** St Etienne vs Reims at 20 February 2021**** Nantes vs Marseille at 20 February 2021**** Nice vs Metz at 21 February 2021**** Strasbourg vs Angers at 21 February 2021**** Paris SG vs Monaco at 21 February 2021**** Nimes vs Bordeaux at 21 February 2021**** Montpellier vs Rennes at 21 February 2021**** Lorient vs Lille at 21 February 2021**** Lens vs Dijon at 21 February 2021**

###
Brest vs Lyon at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brest** and **Lyon** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brest |
5.92 |
2.34 |
25.8 |

Draw |
4.51 |
3.73 |
4.6 |

Lyon |
1.53 |
3.29 |
-35.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.49 |
2.49 |
-27.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.57 |
1.67 |
21.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brest, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.8 %, 4.6 %, 21 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** at home**.

Brest,** at home**, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Lille |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Strasbourg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Metz |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Reims |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Rennes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
Nice |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** as a guest**.

Lyon,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Jan |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Lens |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Brest** is **-0.259** and for the **Lyon** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Brest** is **0.305** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lyon** is **0.641.**

The offensive ability for the **Brest** is **0.311** and for the **Lyon** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Brest** is **-0.518** and for the **Lyon** is **0.176.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brest** and the red line for guest team, **Lyon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brest |
30% |
29% |
31% |
9% |

Lyon |
39% |
36% |
9% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brest** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **2.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.16** goals in the game and the guest team **Lyon ** to win by **1.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Lyon** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.40 |
0-1 |
2.92 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.50 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
9.35 |
Un 1.5 |
2.92 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.37 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.96 |
2.88 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.56 |
4.61 |

4+ goals |
4.24 |
4.14 |
1.91 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
4.44 |
3.34 |

Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
2.88 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
9.30 |
2.38 |

Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.68 |
4.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
4.14 |
1.91 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.67 |
3.88 |

Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.85 |
3.49 |

No Goal |
2.10 |
4.86 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
7.37 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
4.86 |
3.61 |

####
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###
St Etienne vs Reims at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **St Etienne** and **Reims** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

St Etienne |
2.28 |
2.36 |
-1.5 |

Draw |
2.99 |
3.62 |
-5.8 |

Reims |
3.65 |
3.33 |
2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.39 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.72 |
-4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reims (2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**St Etienne** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **St Etienne** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance** at home**.

St Etienne,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Nantes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Nice |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Reims |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Paris SG |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** as a guest**.

Reims,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Lorient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **St Etienne** is **0.259** and for the **Reims** is **-0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **St Etienne** is **-0.365** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reims** is **-0.169.**

The offensive ability for the **St Etienne** is **0.43** and for the **Reims** is **0.281.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **St Etienne** is **0.336** and for the **Reims** is **0.116.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **St Etienne** and the red line for guest team, **Reims. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

St Etienne |
27% |
33% |
29% |
11% |

Reims |
36% |
36% |
16% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Reims** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and the home team **St Etienne ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **St Etienne** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Reims** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.18 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.18 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.20 |
3.20 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
4.23 |
3.78 |

4+ goals |
3.28 |
3.11 |
2.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.85 |
3.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.20 |
3.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.87 |
2.67 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.70 |
4.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |
3.11 |
2.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.76 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.61 |
3.71 |

No Goal |
2.04 |
5.46 |
3.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.69 |
2.78 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.46 |
3.24 |

####
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###
Nantes vs Marseille at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nantes** and **Marseille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nantes |
2.89 |
2.69 |
2.6 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.58 |
-3.3 |

Marseille |
2.58 |
2.87 |
-3.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.46 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.68 |
-0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nantes (2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** at home**.

Nantes,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Angers |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** as a guest**.

Marseille,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Nice |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Lens |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Lens |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Nantes** is **-0.296** and for the **Marseille** is **-0.259.**

The home dynamic for the **Nantes** is **-0.234** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Marseille** is **0.467.**

The offensive ability for the **Nantes** is **0.333** and for the **Marseille** is **0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nantes** is **-1** and for the **Marseille** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nantes** and the red line for guest team, **Marseille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nantes |
32% |
35% |
25% |
9% |

Marseille |
35% |
35% |
12% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nantes** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nantes** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Marseille** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.93 |
0-1 |
2.88 |

1 |
4.26 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.63 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |

4 |
8.26 |
Un 1.5 |
2.88 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.80 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.25 |
3.77 |
3.44 |

4+ goals |
4.55 |
4.24 |
1.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.90 |
2.74 |

Un 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.10 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
9.04 |
2.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
2.53 |
3.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
4.24 |
1.84 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.45 |
3.30 |

Goal-Goal |
3.43 |
2.64 |
3.03 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
4.99 |
2.74 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
7.11 |
2.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
4.99 |
3.17 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nice vs Metz at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nice** and **Metz** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **21 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nice |
2.38 |
2.50 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.58 |
-1.6 |

Metz |
3.05 |
3.12 |
-0.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.29 |
2.44 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.69 |
-1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** at home**.

Nice,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 30.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Metz |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Metz** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Metz** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance** as a guest**.

Metz,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Brest |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Nice |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Nice** is **-0.385** and for the **Metz** is **0.059.**

The home dynamic for the **Nice** is **-0.533** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Metz** is **0.272.**

The offensive ability for the **Nice** is **0.704** and for the **Metz** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nice** is **-0.245** and for the **Metz** is **-0.339.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nice** and the red line for guest team, **Metz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nice |
29% |
34% |
27% |
10% |

Metz |
36% |
36% |
15% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Metz** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nice** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Metz** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.62 |
0-1 |
3.04 |

1 |
4.44 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
5.35 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.04 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.35 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |