2021 02 19 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brest vs Lyon at 19 February 2021
St Etienne vs Reims at 20 February 2021
Nantes vs Marseille at 20 February 2021
Nice vs Metz at 21 February 2021
Strasbourg vs Angers at 21 February 2021
Paris SG vs Monaco at 21 February 2021
Nimes vs Bordeaux at 21 February 2021
Montpellier vs Rennes at 21 February 2021
Lorient vs Lille at 21 February 2021
Lens vs Dijon at 21 February 2021


Brest vs Lyon at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

5.92

2.34

25.8

Draw

4.51

3.73

4.6

Lyon

1.53

3.29

-35.0

Over 2.5

1.49

2.49

-27.0

Under 2.5

2.57

1.67

21.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.8 %, 4.6 %, 21 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Lille

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Strasbourg

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Metz

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Jan

Reims

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Rennes

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Jan

Nice

H

2

0

W

U

N


Lyon in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance as a guest.
Lyon, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Strasbourg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

St Etienne

A

5

0

W

O

N

17 Jan

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Rennes

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Lens

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Brest is -0.259 and for the Lyon is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Brest is 0.305 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lyon is 0.641.
The offensive ability for the Brest is 0.311 and for the Lyon is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Brest is -0.518 and for the Lyon is 0.176.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

30%

29%

31%

9%

Lyon

39%

36%

9%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 0.85 goals and Lyon to score 2.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.16 goals in the game and the guest team Lyon to win by 1.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.19 goals and Lyon to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.40

0-1

2.92

1

4.46

2-3

2.09

2

3.89

4+

5.62

3

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

9.35

Un 1.5

2.92

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.50

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.37

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

2.88

3.18

2-3 goals

1.77

4.56

4.61

4+ goals

4.24

4.14

1.91

Ov 1.5

2.11

4.44

3.34

Un 1.5

2.96

2.88

3.18

Ov 2.5

2.12

9.30

2.38

Un 2.5

2.51

2.68

4.38

Ov 3.5

4.24

4.14

1.91

Un 3.5

2.13

3.67

3.88

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.85

3.49

No Goal

2.10

4.86

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

7.37

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

4.86

3.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


St Etienne vs Reims at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

2.28

2.36

-1.5

Draw

2.99

3.62

-5.8

Reims

3.65

3.33

2.6

Over 2.5

2.39

2.39

0.0

Under 2.5

1.61

1.72

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Rennes

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Lyon

H

0

5

L

O

N

17 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Reims

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G


Reims in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

St Etienne

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Dijon

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the St Etienne is 0.259 and for the Reims is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the St Etienne is -0.365 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reims is -0.169.
The offensive ability for the St Etienne is 0.43 and for the Reims is 0.281.
Finally, the defensive ability for the St Etienne is 0.336 and for the Reims is 0.116.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

27%

33%

29%

11%

Reims

36%

36%

16%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.26 goals and Reims to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team St Etienne to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.24 goals and Reims to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.18

1

4.63

2-3

2.02

2

3.76

4+

5.26

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.18

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.20

3.20

2-3 goals

2.00

4.23

3.78

4+ goals

3.28

3.11

2.68

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.85

3.39

Un 1.5

2.66

3.20

3.20

Ov 2.5

2.08

6.87

2.67

Un 2.5

2.61

2.70

4.06

Ov 3.5

3.28

3.11

2.68

Un 3.5

2.22

3.76

3.53

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.61

3.71

No Goal

2.04

5.46

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.69

2.78

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

5.46

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Nantes vs Marseille at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nantes and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nantes

2.89

2.69

2.6

Draw

3.20

3.58

-3.3

Marseille

2.58

2.87

-3.9

Over 2.5

2.27

2.46

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.68

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes (2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nantes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance at home.
Nantes, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Angers

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N


Marseille in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance as a guest.
Marseille, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Nice

H

3

2

W

O

G

14 Feb

Bordeaux

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Paris SG

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

Lens

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Monaco

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Jan

Lens

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Nimes

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Dijon

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Nantes is -0.296 and for the Marseille is -0.259.
The home dynamic for the Nantes is -0.234 and the dynamic as a guest for the Marseille is 0.467.
The offensive ability for the Nantes is 0.333 and for the Marseille is 0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -1 and for the Marseille is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nantes and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nantes

32%

35%

25%

9%

Marseille

35%

35%

12%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.08 goals and Marseille to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.11 goals and Marseille to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.93

0-1

2.88

1

4.26

2-3

2.16

2

4.03

4+

5.24

3

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

8.26

Un 1.5

2.88

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.26

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.10

3.13

2-3 goals

2.25

3.77

3.44

4+ goals

4.55

4.24

1.84

Ov 1.5

2.64

3.90

2.74

Un 1.5

2.80

3.10

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.53

9.04

2.02

Un 2.5

2.82

2.53

3.99

Ov 3.5

4.55

4.24

1.84

Un 3.5

2.46

3.45

3.30

Goal-Goal

3.43

2.64

3.03

No Goal

2.30

4.99

2.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

7.11

2.19

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

4.99

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Nice vs Metz at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nice and Metz for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 21 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nice

2.38

2.50

-2.0

Draw

3.39

3.58

-1.6

Metz

3.05

3.12

-0.7

Over 2.5

2.29

2.44

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.66

1.69

-1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance at home.
Nice, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 30.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

3

L

O

N

09 Jan

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G


Metz in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance as a guest.
Metz, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Brest

A

4

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Nantes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lyon

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Nice

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Nice is -0.385 and for the Metz is 0.059.
The home dynamic for the Nice is -0.533 and the dynamic as a guest for the Metz is 0.272.
The offensive ability for the Nice is 0.704 and for the Metz is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nice is -0.245 and for the Metz is -0.339.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nice and the red line for guest team, Metz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nice

29%

34%

27%

10%

Metz

36%

36%

15%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nice to score 1.22 goals and Metz to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nice to score 1.18 goals and Metz to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

3.04

1

4.44

2-3

2.07

2

3.83

4+

5.35

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.04

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.44

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.35

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70