2021 02 19 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wolves vs Leeds at 19 February 2021
Southampton vs Chelsea at 20 February 2021
Liverpool vs Everton at 20 February 2021
Burnley vs West Brom at 20 February 2021
Fulham vs Sheffield United at 20 February 2021
West Ham vs Tottenham at 21 February 2021
Man United vs Newcastle at 21 February 2021
Aston Villa vs Leicester at 21 February 2021
Arsenal vs Man City at 21 February 2021
Brighton vs Crystal Palace at 22 February 2021


Wolves vs Leeds at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Leeds for Premier League (England), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wolves

2.37

2.59

-3.6

Draw

3.37

3.79

-3.3

Leeds

3.11

2.86

2.8

Over 2.5

1.89

1.97

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.95

2.03

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leeds (2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wolves in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Leicester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

West Brom

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Brighton

A

3

3

D

O

G


Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance as a guest.
Leeds, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Arsenal

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Newcastle

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Brighton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Tottenham

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Wolves is 0.074 and for the Leeds is -0.015.
The home dynamic for the Wolves is -0.018 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leeds is 0.19.
The offensive ability for the Wolves is 0.015 and for the Leeds is 0.726.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wolves is -0.182 and for the Leeds is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Leeds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wolves

28%

33%

18%

21%

Leeds

28%

34%

22%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.41 goals and Leeds to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.33 goals and Leeds to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.75

1

5.32

2-3

2.17

2

4.46

4+

3.70

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.51

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.70

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.38

2.84

2-3 goals

2.65

4.08

2.65

4+ goals

2.31

3.75

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.95

2.87

Un 1.5

2.84

3.38

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.12

7.04

2.59

Un 2.5

3.36

2.56

3.21

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.75

3.33

Un 3.5

2.72

3.79

2.72

Goal-Goal

2.88

2.79

3.39

No Goal

2.34

6.10

2.45

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.60

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.59

6.10

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Southampton vs Chelsea at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

4.91

2.64

17.5

Draw

3.71

3.85

-1.0

Chelsea

1.76

2.77

-20.7

Over 2.5

1.89

1.95

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.96

2.05

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton (17.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Southampton in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance at home.
Southampton, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Leicester

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

West Ham

H

0

0

D

U

N


Chelsea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Sheffield United

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Tottenham

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Burnley

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Wolves

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Leicester

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Fulham

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Southampton is -1 and for the Chelsea is 0.578.
The home dynamic for the Southampton is -0.054 and the dynamic as a guest for the Chelsea is 0.097.
The offensive ability for the Southampton is 0.059 and for the Chelsea is 0.43.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Southampton is -1 and for the Chelsea is 0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

28%

26%

32%

13%

Chelsea

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 0.84 goals and Chelsea to score 1.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.9 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.3 goals and Chelsea to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.03

1

5.92

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

3.80

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.05

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.40

3.14

2.58

2-3 goals

2.11

5.49

2.91

4+ goals

3.55

2.86

2.71

Ov 1.5

2.46

4.15

2.84

Un 1.5

3.40

3.14

2.58

Ov 2.5

2.35

5.57

2.53

Un 2.5

3.03

2.90

3.07

Ov 3.5

3.55

2.86

2.71

Un 3.5

2.42

4.39

2.79

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.86

3.34

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

4.65

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

6.11

2.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Liverpool vs Everton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Liverpool and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Liverpool

1.47

2.47

-27.5

Draw

4.58

3.75

4.8

Everton

7.14

3.06

18.7

Over 2.5

1.62

1.99

-11.5

Under 2.5

2.32

2.01

6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Everton, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 18.7 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Liverpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance at home.
Liverpool, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Leicester

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Man City

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Brighton

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

West Ham

A

3

1

W

O

G

28 Jan

Tottenham

A

3

1

W

O

G

21 Jan

Burnley

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Jan

Southampton

A

0

1

L

U

N


Everton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Fulham

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Man United

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Feb

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Jan

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Liverpool is -0.385 and for the Everton is -0.37.
The home dynamic for the Liverpool is 0.808 and the dynamic as a guest for the Everton is 0.621.
The offensive ability for the Liverpool is 0.385 and for the Everton is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Liverpool is -1 and for the Everton is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Liverpool and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Liverpool

26%

37%

12%

25%

Everton

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Liverpool to score 2.23 goals and Everton to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Liverpool to win by 1.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Liverpool to score 1.37 goals and Everton to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.57

1

4.95

2-3

2.23

2

4.59

4+

3.69

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.57

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

27.78

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.69

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.59

3.11

2-3 goals

2.90

3.51

2.70

4+ goals

1.95

4.44

3.82

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.81

3.04

Un 1.5

2.50

3.59

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.95

8.23

2.73

Un 2.5

3.34

2.42

3.48

Ov 3.5

1.95

4.44

3.82

Un 3.5

2.73

3.54

2.85

Goal-Goal

2.86

2.74

3.52

No Goal

2.15

6.19

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

6.38

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

6.19

2.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Burnley vs West Brom at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Burnley and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burnley

2.05

1.98

1.7

Draw

3.32

3.91

-4.5

West Brom

3.92

4.18

-1.6

Over 2.5

2.24

2.04

4.4

Under 2.5

1.68

1.96

-8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Burnley in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance at home.
Burnley, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Feb

Fulham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Crystal Palace

A

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Brighton

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Man City

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Aston Villa

H

3

2

W

O

G

21 Jan

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

West Ham

A

0

1

L

U

N


West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Man United

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Sheffield United

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Fulham

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Man City

H

0

5

L

O

N

19 Jan

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Arsenal

H

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the Burnley is 0.015 and for the West Brom is -0.644.
The home dynamic for the Burnley is -0.066 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Brom is -0.395.
The offensive ability for the Burnley is 0.385 and for the West Brom is 0.333.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Burnley is -0.545 and for the West Brom is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burnley and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burnley

20%

32%

27%

21%

West Brom

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.39 goals and West Brom to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Burnley to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burnley to score 1.5 goals and West Brom to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Burnley to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.86

1

5.32

2-3

2.00

2

4.00

4+

4.15

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.86

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at