# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Wolves vs Leeds at 19 February 2021**** Southampton vs Chelsea at 20 February 2021**** Liverpool vs Everton at 20 February 2021**** Burnley vs West Brom at 20 February 2021**** Fulham vs Sheffield United at 20 February 2021**** West Ham vs Tottenham at 21 February 2021**** Man United vs Newcastle at 21 February 2021**** Aston Villa vs Leicester at 21 February 2021**** Arsenal vs Man City at 21 February 2021**** Brighton vs Crystal Palace at 22 February 2021**

###
Wolves vs Leeds at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wolves** and **Leeds** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wolves |
2.37 |
2.59 |
-3.6 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.79 |
-3.3 |

Leeds |
3.11 |
2.86 |
2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.97 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.03 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leeds (2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** at home**.

Wolves,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Leeds** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leeds** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance** as a guest**.

Leeds,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leeds scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wolves** is **0.074** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Wolves** is **-0.018** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leeds** is **0.19.**

The offensive ability for the **Wolves** is **0.015** and for the **Leeds** is **0.726.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wolves** is **-0.182** and for the **Leeds** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wolves** and the red line for guest team, **Leeds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wolves |
28% |
33% |
18% |
21% |

Leeds |
28% |
34% |
22% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wolves** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Leeds** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.70 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
13.51 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.38 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.65 |
4.08 |
2.65 |

4+ goals |
2.31 |
3.75 |
3.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.95 |
2.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.38 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
7.04 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.36 |
2.56 |
3.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.75 |
3.33 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
3.79 |
2.72 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.79 |
3.39 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
6.10 |
2.45 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.60 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
6.10 |
2.47 |

####
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###
Southampton vs Chelsea at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Southampton** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Southampton |
4.91 |
2.64 |
17.5 |

Draw |
3.71 |
3.85 |
-1.0 |

Chelsea |
1.76 |
2.77 |
-20.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.95 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.05 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southampton (17.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** at home**.

Southampton,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Man United |
A |
0 |
9 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Southampton** is **-1** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.578.**

The home dynamic for the **Southampton** is **-0.054** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Chelsea** is **0.097.**

The offensive ability for the **Southampton** is **0.059** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.43.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Southampton** is **-1** and for the **Chelsea** is **0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Southampton** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Southampton |
28% |
26% |
32% |
13% |

Chelsea |
28% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.9** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Southampton** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.92 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.20 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.40 |
3.14 |
2.58 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
5.49 |
2.91 |

4+ goals |
3.55 |
2.86 |
2.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
4.15 |
2.84 |

Un 1.5 |
3.40 |
3.14 |
2.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
5.57 |
2.53 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.90 |
3.07 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.55 |
2.86 |
2.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
4.39 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.86 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
4.65 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
6.11 |
2.51 |

####
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###
Liverpool vs Everton at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Liverpool** and **Everton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Liverpool |
1.47 |
2.47 |
-27.5 |

Draw |
4.58 |
3.75 |
4.8 |

Everton |
7.14 |
3.06 |
18.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.99 |
-11.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.01 |
6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Everton, Under 2.5 (4.8 %, 18.7 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** at home**.

Liverpool,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** as a guest**.

Everton,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Man United |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Liverpool** is **-0.385** and for the **Everton** is **-0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Liverpool** is **0.808** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Everton** is **0.621.**

The offensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **0.385** and for the **Everton** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Liverpool** is **-1** and for the **Everton** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Liverpool** and the red line for guest team, **Everton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Liverpool |
26% |
37% |
12% |
25% |

Everton |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **2.23 ** goals and **Everton** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **Liverpool ** to win by **1.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Liverpool** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.59 |
4+ |
3.69 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.69 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.59 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.90 |
3.51 |
2.70 |

4+ goals |
1.95 |
4.44 |
3.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.81 |
3.04 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.59 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
8.23 |
2.73 |

Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
2.42 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.44 |
3.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.54 |
2.85 |

Goal-Goal |
2.86 |
2.74 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.19 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.38 |
2.65 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
6.19 |
2.59 |

####
Go to Top

###
Burnley vs West Brom at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burnley** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burnley |
2.05 |
1.98 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.32 |
3.91 |
-4.5 |

West Brom |
3.92 |
4.18 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.24 |
2.04 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.96 |
-8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burnley, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** at home**.

Burnley,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Man United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Man City |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Burnley** is **0.015** and for the **West Brom** is **-0.644.**

The home dynamic for the **Burnley** is **-0.066** and the dynamic as a guest for the **West Brom** is **-0.395.**

The offensive ability for the **Burnley** is **0.385** and for the **West Brom** is **0.333.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Burnley** is **-0.545** and for the **West Brom** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burnley** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burnley |
20% |
32% |
27% |
21% |

West Brom |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.39 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Burnley ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burnley** to score **1.5 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and the home team **Burnley ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |