Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Boavista vs Moreirense at 19 February 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Portimonense at 20 February 2021
Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara at 20 February 2021
Belenenses vs Nacional at 20 February 2021
Rio Ave vs Famalicao at 21 February 2021
Farense vs Benfica at 21 February 2021
Sp Braga vs Tondela at 21 February 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Guimaraes at 21 February 2021
Boavista vs Moreirense at 19 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Moreirense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Boavista |
2.25 |
3.15 |
-12.7 |
|
Draw |
3.00 |
3.65 |
-5.9 |
|
Moreirense |
3.49 |
2.44 |
12.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.19 |
6.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.84 |
-11.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (12.3 %, 6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Boavista in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Porto |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Moreirense in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance as a guest.
Moreirense, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Porto |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The form score for the Boavista is -0.481 and for the Moreirense is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Boavista is -0.737 and the dynamic as a guest for the Moreirense is -0.026.
The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.333 and for the Moreirense is 0.681.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -1 and for the Moreirense is -0.288.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Moreirense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Boavista |
32% |
36% |
19% |
12% |
|
Moreirense |
27% |
34% |
23% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.18 goals and Moreirense to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and the home team Boavista to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.11 goals and Moreirense to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.39 |
|
1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.98 |
3.39 |
2.71 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.24 |
3.90 |
2.30 |
|
4+ goals |
3.23 |
3.48 |
2.48 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.24 |
3.76 |
2.35 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
3.39 |
2.71 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
7.14 |
2.02 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.63 |
2.58 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |
3.48 |
2.48 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.14 |
3.69 |
2.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.70 |
2.64 |
2.85 |
|
No Goal |
2.76 |
5.80 |
2.15 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.81 |
2.14 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
5.80 |
2.30 |
Go to Top
Sp Lisbon vs Portimonense at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sp Lisbon and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sp Lisbon |
1.44 |
1.60 |
-6.9 |
|
Draw |
4.37 |
4.37 |
0.0 |
|
Portimonense |
7.38 |
6.80 |
1.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.35 |
-9.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.74 |
4.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Portimonense, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance at home.
Sp Lisbon, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 23 points, 85.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
15 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
18 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Sp Lisbon is 0.867 and for the Portimonense is 0.
The home dynamic for the Sp Lisbon is 0.76 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portimonense is -0.569.
The offensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 1 and for the Portimonense is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Lisbon is 0.664 and for the Portimonense is -0.253.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sp Lisbon and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sp Lisbon |
18% |
31% |
26% |
24% |
|
Portimonense |
56% |
24% |
17% |
2% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.94 goals and Portimonense to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Lisbon to score 1.57 goals and Portimonense to score 0.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.13 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
5.99 |
|
3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
|
5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
6+ |
166.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.99 |
|
NoG |
1.56 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.84 |
3.14 |
7.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.47 |
6.84 |
5.70 |
|
4+ goals |
1.64 |
3.21 |
12.85 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
5.35 |
6.60 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.84 |
3.14 |
7.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
8.19 |
6.00 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
3.24 |
7.55 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.64 |
3.21 |
12.85 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.60 |
4.71 |
6.22 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.18 |
2.83 |
5.36 |
|
No Goal |
1.40 |
6.28 |
8.01 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
5.46 |
4.24 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.55 |
6.28 |
6.57 |
Go to Top
Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Gil Vicente |
2.57 |
2.24 |
5.7 |
|
Draw |
3.02 |
3.66 |
-5.8 |
|
Santa Clara |
2.93 |
3.56 |
-6.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.08 |
7.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.93 |
-12.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Santa Clara in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Feb |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Gil Vicente is -0.652 and for the Santa Clara is 0.163.
The home dynamic for the Gil Vicente is -0.437 and the dynamic as a guest for the Santa Clara is 0.344.
The offensive ability for the Gil Vicente is 0.43 and for the Santa Clara is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Gil Vicente is -1 and for the Santa Clara is -0.631.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Gil Vicente |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |
|
Santa Clara |
29% |
46% |
10% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.1 goals and Santa Clara to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.4 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.66 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.07 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |
|
NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.96 |
2.55 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.03 |
3.18 |
5.22 |
|
4+ goals |
2.22 |
4.56 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.54 |
4.20 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.96 |
2.55 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
8.91 |
3.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.35 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.56 |
3.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.42 |
3.78 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.63 |
4.70 |
|
No Goal |
2.04 |
6.65 |
2.78 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.20 |
3.38 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.65 |
2.80 |
Go to Top
Belenenses vs Nacional at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Belenenses and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Belenenses |
2.18 |
1.88 |
7.3 |
|
Draw |
2.89 |
3.91 |
-9.0 |
|
Nacional |
3.88 |
4.72 |
-4.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.95 |
11.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
2.05 |
-17.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Belenenses, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 11.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance at home.
Belenenses, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Feb |
Porto |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Nacional in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Belenenses is -0.148 and for the Nacional is 0.015.
The home dynamic for the Belenenses is -0.521 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nacional is -0.333.
The offensive ability for the Belenenses is -0.333 and for the Nacional is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Belenenses is 0.273 and for the Nacional is -0.167.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Belenenses and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Belenenses |
18% |
31% |
26% |
25% |
|
Nacional |
32% |
48% |
7% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.24 goals and Nacional to score 0.84 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Belenenses to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.59 goals and Nacional to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Belenenses to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.17 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.83 |
|
3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.59 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |
|
NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |
Now