# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Boavista vs Moreirense at 19 February 2021**** Sp Lisbon vs Portimonense at 20 February 2021**** Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara at 20 February 2021**** Belenenses vs Nacional at 20 February 2021**** Rio Ave vs Famalicao at 21 February 2021**** Farense vs Benfica at 21 February 2021**** Sp Braga vs Tondela at 21 February 2021**** Pacos Ferreira vs Guimaraes at 21 February 2021**

###
Boavista vs Moreirense at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boavista** and **Moreirense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boavista |
2.25 |
3.15 |
-12.7 |

Draw |
3.00 |
3.65 |
-5.9 |

Moreirense |
3.49 |
2.44 |
12.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.19 |
6.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.84 |
-11.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Moreirense, Over 2.5 (12.3 %, 6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boavista** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boavista** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance** at home**.

Boavista,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Porto |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** as a guest**.

Moreirense,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Feb |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Porto |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Boavista** is **-0.481** and for the **Moreirense** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Boavista** is **-0.737** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Moreirense** is **-0.026.**

The offensive ability for the **Boavista** is **0.333** and for the **Moreirense** is **0.681.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Boavista** is **-1** and for the **Moreirense** is **-0.288.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boavista** and the red line for guest team, **Moreirense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boavista |
32% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

Moreirense |
27% |
34% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.05** goals in the game and the home team **Boavista ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Moreirense** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.98 |
3.39 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
3.24 |
3.90 |
2.30 |

4+ goals |
3.23 |
3.48 |
2.48 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.24 |
3.76 |
2.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
3.39 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
7.14 |
2.02 |

Un 2.5 |
3.63 |
2.58 |
2.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.23 |
3.48 |
2.48 |

Un 3.5 |
3.14 |
3.69 |
2.44 |

Goal-Goal |
3.70 |
2.64 |
2.85 |

No Goal |
2.76 |
5.80 |
2.15 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.78 |
5.81 |
2.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
5.80 |
2.30 |

####
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###
Sp Lisbon vs Portimonense at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sp Lisbon** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sp Lisbon |
1.44 |
1.60 |
-6.9 |

Draw |
4.37 |
4.37 |
0.0 |

Portimonense |
7.38 |
6.80 |
1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.35 |
-9.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.74 |
4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Portimonense, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** at home**.

Sp Lisbon,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 23 points, 85.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.867** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.76** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portimonense** is **-0.569.**

The offensive ability for the **Sp Lisbon** is **1** and for the **Portimonense** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sp Lisbon** is **0.664** and for the **Portimonense** is **-0.253.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sp Lisbon** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sp Lisbon |
18% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

Portimonense |
56% |
24% |
17% |
2% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.94 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.6 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and the home team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.91** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
5.99 |

3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.93 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |

6+ |
166.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.99 |

NoG |
1.56 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.84 |
3.14 |
7.27 |

2-3 goals |
1.47 |
6.84 |
5.70 |

4+ goals |
1.64 |
3.21 |
12.85 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
5.35 |
6.60 |

Un 1.5 |
1.84 |
3.14 |
7.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
8.19 |
6.00 |

Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
3.24 |
7.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.64 |
3.21 |
12.85 |

Un 3.5 |
1.60 |
4.71 |
6.22 |

Goal-Goal |
2.18 |
2.83 |
5.36 |

No Goal |
1.40 |
6.28 |
8.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
5.46 |
4.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.55 |
6.28 |
6.57 |

####
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###
Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gil Vicente** and **Santa Clara** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gil Vicente |
2.57 |
2.24 |
5.7 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.66 |
-5.8 |

Santa Clara |
2.93 |
3.56 |
-6.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.08 |
7.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.93 |
-12.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** at home**.

Gil Vicente,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Portimonense |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** as a guest**.

Santa Clara,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.652** and for the **Santa Clara** is **0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Gil Vicente** is **-0.437** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Santa Clara** is **0.344.**

The offensive ability for the **Gil Vicente** is **0.43** and for the **Santa Clara** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Gil Vicente** is **-1** and for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gil Vicente** and the red line for guest team, **Santa Clara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gil Vicente |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Santa Clara |
29% |
46% |
10% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.1** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.96 |
2.55 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
3.18 |
5.22 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
4.56 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.54 |
4.20 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.96 |
2.55 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
8.91 |
3.23 |

Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
2.35 |
3.95 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
4.56 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.42 |
3.78 |

Goal-Goal |
2.45 |
2.63 |
4.70 |

No Goal |
2.04 |
6.65 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.20 |
3.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.65 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Belenenses vs Nacional at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Belenenses** and **Nacional** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Belenenses |
2.18 |
1.88 |
7.3 |

Draw |
2.89 |
3.91 |
-9.0 |

Nacional |
3.88 |
4.72 |
-4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.95 |
11.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
2.05 |
-17.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Belenenses, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 11.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** at home**.

Belenenses,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Feb |
Porto |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** as a guest**.

Nacional,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Belenenses** is **-0.148** and for the **Nacional** is **0.015.**

The home dynamic for the **Belenenses** is **-0.521** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nacional** is **-0.333.**

The offensive ability for the **Belenenses** is **-0.333** and for the **Nacional** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Belenenses** is **0.273** and for the **Nacional** is **-0.167.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Belenenses** and the red line for guest team, **Nacional. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Belenenses |
18% |
31% |
26% |
25% |

Nacional |
32% |
48% |
7% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **0.84 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and the home team **Belenenses ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Belenenses ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.83 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.59 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.83 |

NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |