# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Ponferradina vs Mirandes at 19 February 2021**** Albacete vs Sp Gijon at 20 February 2021**** Espanol vs Sabadell at 20 February 2021**** Las Palmas vs Cartagena at 20 February 2021**** Leganes vs Tenerife at 21 February 2021**** Lugo vs Logrones at 21 February 2021**** Malaga vs Vallecano at 21 February 2021**** Mallorca vs Almeria at 21 February 2021**** Girona vs Castellon at 21 February 2021**** Fuenlabrada vs Oviedo at 22 February 2021**** Zaragoza vs Alcorcon at 22 February 2021**

###
Ponferradina vs Mirandes at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Ponferradina** and **Mirandes** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Ponferradina |
3.01 |
2.44 |
7.8 |

Draw |
2.91 |
3.50 |
-5.8 |

Mirandes |
2.57 |
3.28 |
-8.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.45 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.69 |
-7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** at home**.

Ponferradina,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** as a guest**.

Mirandes,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Girona |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Ponferradina** is **-0.163** and for the **Mirandes** is **0.237.**

The home dynamic for the **Ponferradina** is **-0.138** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Mirandes** is **0.005.**

The offensive ability for the **Ponferradina** is **0.259** and for the **Mirandes** is **0.704.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Ponferradina** is **-0.155** and for the **Mirandes** is **0.202.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Ponferradina** and the red line for guest team, **Mirandes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Ponferradina |
28% |
36% |
24% |
12% |

Mirandes |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **0.97 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Ponferradina** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Mirandes** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.10 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.49 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.10 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.81 |
3.30 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.58 |
3.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.92 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.61 |
3.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.60 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.49 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.46 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.76 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.46 |
2.94 |

####
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###
Albacete vs Sp Gijon at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Albacete** and **Sp Gijon** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Albacete |
3.38 |
2.62 |
8.6 |

Draw |
2.87 |
3.46 |
-5.9 |

Sp Gijon |
2.39 |
3.04 |
-8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.49 |
3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.67 |
-9.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Albacete, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Albacete** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Albacete** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance** at home**.

Albacete,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Alcorcon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Sp Gijon** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Gijon** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Gijon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Logrones |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Albacete** is **0.096** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **0.37.**

The home dynamic for the **Albacete** is **-0.186** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sp Gijon** is **-0.005.**

The offensive ability for the **Albacete** is **0.63** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **0.059.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Albacete** is **-0.209** and for the **Sp Gijon** is **0.605.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Albacete** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Gijon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Albacete |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |

Sp Gijon |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Albacete** to score **0.87 ** goals and **Sp Gijon** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.96** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Albacete** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Sp Gijon** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.69 |
4+ |
5.62 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.14 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
3.80 |
2.98 |

4+ goals |
2.87 |
3.02 |
3.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.56 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.80 |
2.49 |

Un 2.5 |
2.97 |
2.60 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.87 |
3.02 |
3.12 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.57 |
3.03 |

Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.47 |
3.51 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
5.33 |
2.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.71 |
2.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.33 |
2.81 |

####
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###
Espanol vs Sabadell at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Espanol** and **Sabadell** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Espanol |
1.46 |
1.81 |
-13.2 |

Draw |
4.18 |
4.00 |
1.1 |

Sabadell |
7.02 |
5.08 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.14 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.88 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Sabadell (1.1 %, 5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Espanol** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Espanol** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance** at home**.

Espanol,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Mallorca |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Lugo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Castellon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Logrones |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** as a guest**.

Sabadell,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Espanol** is **-0.126** and for the **Sabadell** is **0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Espanol** is **0.341** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sabadell** is **-0.118.**

The offensive ability for the **Espanol** is **0.407** and for the **Sabadell** is **0.385.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Espanol** is **-0.636** and for the **Sabadell** is **0.142.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Espanol** and the red line for guest team, **Sabadell. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Espanol |
17% |
34% |
26% |
22% |

Sabadell |
42% |
35% |
16% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.81 ** goals and **Sabadell** to score **0.59 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **1.22** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Sabadell** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.65 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.65 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.94 |
3.81 |
4.49 |

2-3 goals |
1.72 |
4.29 |
5.37 |

4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.09 |
5.32 |

Un 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.81 |
4.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
8.05 |
4.32 |

Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.78 |
5.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
3.69 |
5.22 |

Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.10 |
5.03 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.72 |
5.01 |

No Goal |
1.50 |
7.18 |
5.12 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.24 |
3.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.18 |
4.63 |

####
Go to Top

###
Las Palmas vs Cartagena at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Las Palmas** and **Cartagena** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Las Palmas |
2.44 |
2.25 |
3.5 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.58 |
-5.2 |

Cartagena |
3.19 |
3.62 |
-3.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.35 |
3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.74 |
-7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Las Palmas, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 3.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Las Palmas** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Las Palmas** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance** at home**.

Las Palmas,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Leganes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Cartagena** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cartagena** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance** as a guest**.

Cartagena,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Vallecano |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Oviedo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.111** and for the **Cartagena** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Las Palmas** is **0.054** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cartagena** is **-0.21.**

The offensive ability for the **Las Palmas** is **0.281** and for the **Cartagena** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.3** and for the **Cartagena** is **-0.167.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Las Palmas** and the red line for guest team, **Cartagena. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Las Palmas |
25% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Cartagena |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Las Palmas** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Cartagena** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Las Palmas** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Cartagena** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Las Palmas ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.25 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |