2021 02 19 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Ponferradina vs Mirandes at 19 February 2021
Albacete vs Sp Gijon at 20 February 2021
Espanol vs Sabadell at 20 February 2021
Las Palmas vs Cartagena at 20 February 2021
Leganes vs Tenerife at 21 February 2021
Lugo vs Logrones at 21 February 2021
Malaga vs Vallecano at 21 February 2021
Mallorca vs Almeria at 21 February 2021
Girona vs Castellon at 21 February 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Oviedo at 22 February 2021
Zaragoza vs Alcorcon at 22 February 2021


Ponferradina vs Mirandes at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ponferradina

3.01

2.44

7.8

Draw

2.91

3.50

-5.8

Mirandes

2.57

3.28

-8.4

Over 2.5

2.52

2.45

1.1

Under 2.5

1.50

1.69

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (7.8 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ponferradina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance at home.
Ponferradina, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Alcorcon

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Malaga

A

2

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Girona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

18 Dec

Oviedo

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Dec

Lugo

A

0

1

L

U

N


Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance as a guest.
Mirandes, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Girona

H

3

3

D

O

G

07 Feb

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Las Palmas

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Cartagena

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Vallecano

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Logrones

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Dec

Albacete

H

0

2

L

U

N

12 Dec

Fuenlabrada

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Ponferradina is -0.163 and for the Mirandes is 0.237.
The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is -0.138 and the dynamic as a guest for the Mirandes is 0.005.
The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.259 and for the Mirandes is 0.704.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is -0.155 and for the Mirandes is 0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ponferradina and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ponferradina

28%

36%

24%

12%

Mirandes

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 0.97 goals and Mirandes to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.21 goals and Mirandes to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.10

1

4.42

2-3

2.02

2

3.72

4+

5.49

3

4.42

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.10

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.45

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.49

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.33

3.17

2-3 goals

2.30

3.81

3.30

4+ goals

2.56

3.08

3.50

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.58

3.35

Un 1.5

2.60

3.33

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.92

2.78

Un 2.5

2.85

2.61

3.77

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.08

3.50

Un 3.5

2.41

3.60

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.49

3.85

No Goal

2.11

5.46

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.76

2.79

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

5.46

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Albacete vs Sp Gijon at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Albacete

3.38

2.62

8.6

Draw

2.87

3.46

-5.9

Sp Gijon

2.39

3.04

-8.9

Over 2.5

2.70

2.49

3.1

Under 2.5

1.44

1.67

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Albacete in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance at home.
Albacete, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Leganes

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Feb

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Oviedo

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Alcorcon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Mirandes

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Castellon

A

0

3

L

O

N


Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Gijon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Malaga

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Logrones

A

4

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Castellon

A

0

2

L

U

N

11 Jan

Fuenlabrada

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Leganes

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Albacete is 0.096 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.37.
The home dynamic for the Albacete is -0.186 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Gijon is -0.005.
The offensive ability for the Albacete is 0.63 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.059.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Albacete is -0.209 and for the Sp Gijon is 0.605.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Albacete

29%

36%

23%

11%

Sp Gijon

34%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 0.87 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.15 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.69

4+

5.62

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.28

3.12

2-3 goals

2.49

3.80

2.98

4+ goals

2.87

3.02

3.12

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.56

3.01

Un 1.5

2.67

3.28

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.22

6.80

2.49

Un 2.5

2.97

2.60

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.87

3.02

3.12

Un 3.5

2.56

3.57

3.03

Goal-Goal

3.22

2.47

3.51

No Goal

2.24

5.33

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

5.71

2.53

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

5.33

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Espanol vs Sabadell at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Sabadell for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.46

1.81

-13.2

Draw

4.18

4.00

1.1

Sabadell

7.02

5.08

5.4

Over 2.5

2.07

2.14

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.79

1.88

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sabadell (1.1 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Mallorca

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Feb

Lugo

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Vallecano

H

2

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Castellon

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Las Palmas

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Dec

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Dec

Logrones

A

3

0

W

O

N


Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance as a guest.
Sabadell, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Las Palmas

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Almeria

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Jan

Lugo

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Jan

Girona

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Cartagena

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Espanol is -0.126 and for the Sabadell is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.341 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sabadell is -0.118.
The offensive ability for the Espanol is 0.407 and for the Sabadell is 0.385.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is -0.636 and for the Sabadell is 0.142.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Sabadell.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

17%

34%

26%

22%

Sabadell

42%

35%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.81 goals and Sabadell to score 0.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 1.22 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.54 goals and Sabadell to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.65

1

4.95

2-3

1.96

2

3.89

4+

4.67

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.65

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.81

4.49

2-3 goals

1.72

4.29

5.37

4+ goals

1.86

3.69

5.22

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.09

5.32

Un 1.5

1.94

3.81

4.49

Ov 2.5

1.55

8.05

4.32

Un 2.5

2.12

2.78

5.97

Ov 3.5

1.86

3.69

5.22

Un 3.5

1.79

4.10

5.03

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.72

5.01

No Goal

1.50

7.18

5.12

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

6.24

3.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.64

7.18

4.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Las Palmas vs Cartagena at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Las Palmas

2.44

2.25

3.5

Draw

3.02

3.58

-5.2

Cartagena

3.19

3.62

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.59

2.35

3.9

Under 2.5

1.53

1.74

-7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Las Palmas, Over 2.5 (3.5 %, 3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Las Palmas in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance at home.
Las Palmas, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Mirandes

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Leganes

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Mallorca

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Espanol

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Dec

Alcorcon

H

0

0

D

U

N


Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Vallecano

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Tenerife

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alcorcon

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Sabadell

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Las Palmas is -0.111 and for the Cartagena is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.054 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cartagena is -0.21.
The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.281 and for the Cartagena is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.3 and for the Cartagena is -0.167.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Las Palmas and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Las Palmas

25%

35%

25%

15%

Cartagena

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.12 goals and Cartagena to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.3 goals and Cartagena to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-