2021 02 19 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fiorentina vs Spezia at 19 February 2021
Cagliari vs Torino at 19 February 2021
Sassuolo vs Bologna at 20 February 2021
Lazio vs Sampdoria at 20 February 2021
Genoa vs Verona at 20 February 2021
Atalanta vs Napoli at 21 February 2021
Parma vs Udinese at 21 February 2021
Milan vs Inter at 21 February 2021
Benevento vs Roma at 21 February 2021
Juventus vs Crotone at 22 February 2021


Fiorentina vs Spezia at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

2.01

2.59

-11.1

Draw

3.33

3.76

-3.4

Spezia

4.09

2.87

10.4

Over 2.5

2.12

2.07

1.1

Under 2.5

1.75

1.94

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Over 2.5 (10.4 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Sampdoria

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Feb

Inter

H

0

2

L

U

N

29 Jan

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Crotone

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Napoli

A

0

6

L

O

N

10 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Bologna

H

0

0

D

U

N


Spezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance as a guest.
Spezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Jan

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Jan

Sampdoria

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Napoli

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Verona

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Fiorentina is -0.237 and for the Spezia is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Fiorentina is -0.198 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spezia is 0.169.
The offensive ability for the Fiorentina is 0.333 and for the Spezia is 0.356.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Fiorentina is -0.664 and for the Spezia is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

27%

34%

23%

16%

Spezia

32%

29%

25%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.46 goals and Spezia to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Fiorentina to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.28 goals and Spezia to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.64

1

5.32

2-3

2.08

2

4.15

4+

4.12

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.64

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.55

3.16

3.44

2-3 goals

2.52

4.86

2.52

4+ goals

2.79

3.08

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.60

4.07

2.70

Un 1.5

2.55

3.16

3.44

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.11

2.43

Un 2.5

2.85

2.77

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.08

3.16

Un 3.5

2.53

4.06

2.79

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.78

3.05

No Goal

2.18

5.80

2.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

5.00

2.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.30

5.80

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cagliari vs Torino at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.77

2.77

0.0

Draw

3.36

3.58

-1.8

Torino

2.60

2.79

-2.6

Over 2.5

1.96

2.11

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.89

1.90

-0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cagliari in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cagliari in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cagliari’s performance at home.
Cagliari, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cagliari scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cagliari was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Atalanta

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Lazio

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Sassuolo

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Genoa

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Benevento

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Napoli

H

1

4

L

O

G


Torino in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Cagliari is -0.83 and for the Torino is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Cagliari is -0.365 and the dynamic as a guest for the Torino is -0.046.
The offensive ability for the Cagliari is -0.652 and for the Torino is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cagliari is -1 and for the Torino is -0.202.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

33%

23%

33%

12%

Torino

36%

19%

31%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.22 goals and Torino to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.23 goals and Torino to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.33

0-1

3.79

1

6.94

2-3

2.07

2

3.80

4+

3.97

3

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.79

5

12.20

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.18

2.20

4.33

2-3 goals

2.18

11.50

2.21

4+ goals

4.50

2.15

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.64

4.62

2.47

Un 1.5

3.18

2.20

4.33

Ov 2.5

2.97

4.03

2.41

Un 2.5

2.61

3.25

3.23

Ov 3.5

4.50

2.15

3.19

Un 3.5

2.45

4.61

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.63

2.67

2.85

No Goal

2.35

4.78

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.27

3.27

2.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

4.78

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sassuolo vs Bologna at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Bologna for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

2.32

2.30

0.4

Draw

3.42

3.77

-2.7

Bologna

3.13

3.31

-1.7

Over 2.5

1.65

2.17

-14.5

Under 2.5

2.30

1.86

10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sassuolo, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance at home.
Sassuolo, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Parma

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Genoa

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Atalanta

A

1

5

L

O

G


Bologna in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance as a guest.
Bologna, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Sassuolo is -0.281 and for the Bologna is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Sassuolo is -0.222 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bologna is -0.159.
The offensive ability for the Sassuolo is 1 and for the Bologna is 0.407.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sassuolo is -1 and for the Bologna is -0.227.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Bologna.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

27%

31%

26%

16%

Bologna

40%

22%

29%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.6 goals and Bologna to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.32 goals and Bologna to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

3.45

1

5.49

2-3

2.07

2

4.03

4+

4.44

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.45

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

1.78

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

2.69

5.00

2-3 goals

2.14

7.22

2.53

4+ goals

2.71

2.53

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.29

4.54

2.91

Un 1.5

2.34

2.69

5.00

Ov 2.5

2.25

5.18

2.76

Un 2.5

2.36

3.07

3.99

Ov 3.5

2.71

2.53

4.25

Un 3.5

2.21

4.42

3.11

Goal-Goal

3.14

2.80

3.08

No Goal

1.91

5.20

3.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.66

4.16

2.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.20

3.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lazio vs Sampdoria at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lazio and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lazio

1.67

2.40

-18.2

Draw

4.13

3.66

3.1

Sampdoria

4.88

3.24

10.4

Over 2.5

1.64

2.42

-19.7

Under 2.5

2.30

1.71

15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sampdoria, Under 2.5 (3.1 %, 10.4 %, 15 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lazio in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance at home.
Lazio, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Roma

H

3

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Fiorentina

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Genoa

A

1

1

D

U

G


Sampdoria in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sampdoria in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sampdoria’s performance as a guest.
Sampdoria, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sampdoria scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sampdoria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Fiorentina

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Benevento

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Juventus

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Udinese

H

2

1

W

O

G

11 Jan

Spezia

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Inter

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Roma

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Lazio is 0.607 and for the Sampdoria is 0.2.
The home dynamic for the Lazio is -0.305 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sampdoria is 0.036.
The offensive ability for the Lazio is 1 and for the Sampdoria is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lazio is 0.155 and for the Sampdoria is -0.631.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lazio and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lazio

31%

31%

25%

13%

Sampdoria

51%

6%

34%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lazio to score 2 goals and Sampdoria to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Lazio to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lazio to score 1.2 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.33

0-1

2.99

1

5.65

2-3

2.14

2

3.97

4+

5.05

3

4.65

Ov 1.5

1.50

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.99

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.95

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.51

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.