# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 February 2021**** Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 February 2021**** Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 February 2021**** Pisa vs Empoli at 20 February 2021**** Vicenza vs Spal at 20 February 2021**** Chievo vs Monza at 20 February 2021**** Brescia vs Cremonese at 20 February 2021**** Ascoli vs Salernitana at 20 February 2021**** Reggina vs Pordenone at 21 February 2021**** Lecce vs Cosenza at 21 February 2021**

###
Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Pescara** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **19 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
1.91 |
2.04 |
-3.3 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.69 |
-4.1 |

Pescara |
4.36 |
4.18 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.28 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.78 |
-5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pescara, Over 2.5 (1 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Pescara** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pescara** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance** as a guest**.

Pescara,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Empoli |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Reggina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Frosinone** is **-0.126** and for the **Pescara** is **-0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Frosinone** is **0.006** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Pescara** is **-0.128.**

The offensive ability for the **Frosinone** is **0.681** and for the **Pescara** is **-0.311.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Frosinone** is **-0.609** and for the **Pescara** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Pescara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
20% |
38% |
24% |
18% |

Pescara |
38% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Pescara** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Pescara** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Frosinone ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.90 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.66 |
4.32 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.64 |
4.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
3.65 |
4.27 |

Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.89 |
3.40 |

Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.60 |
5.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.64 |
4.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.70 |
4.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.55 |
4.32 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.48 |
4.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.34 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.48 |
3.86 |

####
Go to Top

###
Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Venezia** and **Virtus Entella** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Venezia |
1.74 |
2.07 |
-9.2 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.61 |
-2.2 |

Virtus Entella |
5.20 |
4.17 |
4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.36 |
-4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.73 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Virtus Entella (4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** at home**.

Venezia,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cremonese |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Virtus Entella** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Virtus Entella** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance** as a guest**.

Virtus Entella,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Venezia** is **0.57** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.704.**

The home dynamic for the **Venezia** is **0.102** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Virtus Entella** is **-0.087.**

The offensive ability for the **Venezia** is **0.407** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **0.63.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Venezia** is **0.245** and for the **Virtus Entella** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Venezia** and the red line for guest team, **Virtus Entella. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Venezia |
20% |
43% |
18% |
19% |

Virtus Entella |
40% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Venezia ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Venezia** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Virtus Entella** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Venezia ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
4.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
5.13 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |

NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.86 |
4.10 |
4.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.16 |
3.95 |

4+ goals |
1.91 |
4.33 |
4.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.42 |
3.98 |

Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.10 |
4.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
9.40 |
3.09 |

Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.49 |
5.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
4.33 |
4.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.47 |
4.18 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.44 |
3.98 |

No Goal |
1.62 |
6.62 |
4.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.36 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.62 |
4.08 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cittadella** and **Reggiana** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cittadella |
1.60 |
1.84 |
-8.2 |

Draw |
3.80 |
3.95 |
-1.0 |

Reggiana |
6.14 |
4.90 |
4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.20 |
-5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.83 |
0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Reggiana, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cittadella** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cittadella** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance** at home**.

Cittadella,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cittadella** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Reggiana** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reggiana** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance** as a guest**.

Reggiana,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Feb |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Cittadella** is **-0.089** and for the **Reggiana** is **0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Cittadella** is **0.461** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reggiana** is **-0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Cittadella** is **0.726** and for the **Reggiana** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cittadella** is **-0.518** and for the **Reggiana** is **-0.545.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cittadella** and the red line for guest team, **Reggiana. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cittadella |
17% |
38% |
22% |
23% |

Reggiana |
43% |
33% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.79 ** goals and **Reggiana** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Cittadella ** to win by **1.09** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cittadella** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Reggiana** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Cittadella ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.38 |

1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.80 |
3.95 |
5.19 |

2-3 goals |
1.86 |
3.96 |
4.76 |

4+ goals |
1.83 |
4.02 |
4.86 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
3.98 |
4.79 |

Un 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.95 |
5.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
8.75 |
3.86 |

Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.72 |
6.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.02 |
4.86 |

Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
3.95 |
4.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.65 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
1.48 |
7.08 |
5.42 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.62 |
3.25 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.08 |
4.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Pisa vs Empoli at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pisa** and **Empoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pisa |
3.16 |
2.64 |
6.2 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.58 |
-3.3 |

Empoli |
2.26 |
2.92 |
-10.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.18 |
-8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.85 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pisa, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pisa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pisa** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance** at home**.

Pisa,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Feb |
Monza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Salernitana |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Reggiana |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Empoli** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Empoli** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Empoli,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Monza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Salernitana |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Pisa** is **0.037** and for the **Empoli** is **0.296.**

The home dynamic for the **Pisa** is **0.006** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Empoli** is **0.569.**

The offensive ability for the **Pisa** is **0.681** and for the **Empoli** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Pisa** is **0.245** and for the **Empoli** is **-0.682.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pisa** and the red line for guest team, **Empoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pisa |
26% |
36% |
27% |
11% |

Empoli |
29% |
37% |
21% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pisa** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1.45 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pisa** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |