2021 02 19 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 February 2021
Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 February 2021
Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 February 2021
Pisa vs Empoli at 20 February 2021
Vicenza vs Spal at 20 February 2021
Chievo vs Monza at 20 February 2021
Brescia vs Cremonese at 20 February 2021
Ascoli vs Salernitana at 20 February 2021
Reggina vs Pordenone at 21 February 2021
Lecce vs Cosenza at 21 February 2021


Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Frosinone

1.91

2.04

-3.3

Draw

3.20

3.69

-4.1

Pescara

4.36

4.18

1.0

Over 2.5

2.34

2.28

1.1

Under 2.5

1.61

1.78

-5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara, Over 2.5 (1 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Virtus Entella

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Feb

Ascoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Venezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Pisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Jan

Spal

H

1

2

L

O

G


Pescara in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Venezia

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chievo

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Salernitana

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Frosinone is -0.126 and for the Pescara is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Frosinone is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pescara is -0.128.
The offensive ability for the Frosinone is 0.681 and for the Pescara is -0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Frosinone is -0.609 and for the Pescara is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Frosinone

20%

38%

24%

18%

Pescara

38%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Pescara to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Pescara to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.34

1

4.55

2-3

2.00

2

3.80

4+

4.90

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.34

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.90

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.06

3.78

3.99

2-3 goals

2.02

3.66

4.32

4+ goals

2.06

3.64

4.16

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.65

4.27

Un 1.5

2.06

3.78

3.99

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.89

3.40

Un 2.5

2.38

2.60

5.11

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.64

4.16

Un 3.5

2.04

3.70

4.19

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.55

4.32

No Goal

1.67

6.48

4.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.34

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

6.48

3.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Virtus Entella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

1.74

2.07

-9.2

Draw

3.34

3.61

-2.2

Virtus Entella

5.20

4.17

4.8

Over 2.5

2.14

2.36

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.73

1.73

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pordenone

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G


Virtus Entella in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance as a guest.
Virtus Entella, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Frosinone

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Cosenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Pisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Chievo

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Vicenza

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Venezia is 0.57 and for the Virtus Entella is -0.704.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is 0.102 and the dynamic as a guest for the Virtus Entella is -0.087.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.407 and for the Virtus Entella is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is 0.245 and for the Virtus Entella is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Virtus Entella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

20%

43%

18%

19%

Virtus Entella

40%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.59 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.37 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.12

1

4.13

2-3

2.06

2

3.88

4+

5.13

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.12

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.86

4.10

4.57

2-3 goals

2.33

3.16

3.95

4+ goals

1.91

4.33

4.06

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.42

3.98

Un 1.5

1.86

4.10

4.57

Ov 2.5

1.76

9.40

3.09

Un 2.5

2.39

2.49

5.56

Ov 3.5

1.91

4.33

4.06

Un 3.5

2.12

3.47

4.18

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.44

3.98

No Goal

1.62

6.62

4.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

7.36

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

6.62

4.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cittadella and Reggiana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cittadella

1.60

1.84

-8.2

Draw

3.80

3.95

-1.0

Reggiana

6.14

4.90

4.1

Over 2.5

1.97

2.20

-5.3

Under 2.5

1.86

1.83

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance at home.
Cittadella, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Pordenone

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cosenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Brescia

A

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

Cremonese

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

Chievo

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Venezia

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Reggiana

A

2

0

W

U

N


Reggiana in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance as a guest.
Reggiana, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Feb

Chievo

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Jan

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Cittadella

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pescara

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Cittadella is -0.089 and for the Reggiana is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Cittadella is 0.461 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reggiana is -0.251.
The offensive ability for the Cittadella is 0.726 and for the Reggiana is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cittadella is -0.518 and for the Reggiana is -0.545.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cittadella and the red line for guest team, Reggiana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cittadella

17%

38%

22%

23%

Reggiana

43%

33%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.79 goals and Reggiana to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.5 goals and Reggiana to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.38

1

4.52

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

4.78

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.38

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.80

3.95

5.19

2-3 goals

1.86

3.96

4.76

4+ goals

1.83

4.02

4.86

Ov 1.5

1.85

3.98

4.79

Un 1.5

1.80

3.95

5.19

Ov 2.5

1.60

8.75

3.86

Un 2.5

2.10

2.72

6.34

Ov 3.5

1.83

4.02

4.86

Un 3.5

1.84

3.95

4.91

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.65

4.42

No Goal

1.48

7.08

5.42

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

6.62

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

7.08

4.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pisa vs Empoli at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Empoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

3.16

2.64

6.2

Draw

3.20

3.58

-3.3

Empoli

2.26

2.92

-10.0

Over 2.5

1.85

2.18

-8.2

Under 2.5

1.96

1.85

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Monza

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Salernitana

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Venezia

A

1

1

D

U

G


Empoli in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance as a guest.
Empoli, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Pescara

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Frosinone

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Salernitana

H

5

0

W

O

N

04 Jan

Cosenza

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Pisa is 0.037 and for the Empoli is 0.296.
The home dynamic for the Pisa is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Empoli is 0.569.
The offensive ability for the Pisa is 0.681 and for the Empoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pisa is 0.245 and for the Empoli is -0.682.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Empoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

26%

36%

27%

11%

Empoli

29%

37%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.15 goals and Empoli to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.23 goals and Empoli to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.61

1

5.00

2-3

1.98

2

3.79

4+

4.59

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-