Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 February 2021
Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 February 2021
Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 February 2021
Pisa vs Empoli at 20 February 2021
Vicenza vs Spal at 20 February 2021
Chievo vs Monza at 20 February 2021
Brescia vs Cremonese at 20 February 2021
Ascoli vs Salernitana at 20 February 2021
Reggina vs Pordenone at 21 February 2021
Lecce vs Cosenza at 21 February 2021
Frosinone vs Pescara at 19 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Pescara for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 19 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Frosinone |
1.91 |
2.04 |
-3.3 |
|
Draw |
3.20 |
3.69 |
-4.1 |
|
Pescara |
4.36 |
4.18 |
1.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.28 |
1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.78 |
-5.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara, Over 2.5 (1 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Frosinone in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Ascoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Pescara in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance as a guest.
Pescara, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Empoli |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Reggina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Frosinone is -0.126 and for the Pescara is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Frosinone is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pescara is -0.128.
The offensive ability for the Frosinone is 0.681 and for the Pescara is -0.311.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Frosinone is -0.609 and for the Pescara is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Pescara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Frosinone |
20% |
38% |
24% |
18% |
|
Pescara |
38% |
36% |
17% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Pescara to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.4 goals and Pescara to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Frosinone to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.34 |
|
1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.90 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.90 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.99 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.66 |
4.32 |
|
4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.64 |
4.16 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.03 |
3.65 |
4.27 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.99 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.89 |
3.40 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.60 |
5.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.64 |
4.16 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.70 |
4.19 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.55 |
4.32 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
6.48 |
4.06 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.34 |
3.11 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.48 |
3.86 |
Go to Top
Venezia vs Virtus Entella at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Virtus Entella for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Venezia |
1.74 |
2.07 |
-9.2 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.61 |
-2.2 |
|
Virtus Entella |
5.20 |
4.17 |
4.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.36 |
-4.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.73 |
0.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Venezia in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Pescara |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Cremonese |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Virtus Entella in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance as a guest.
Virtus Entella, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Frosinone |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Venezia is 0.57 and for the Virtus Entella is -0.704.
The home dynamic for the Venezia is 0.102 and the dynamic as a guest for the Virtus Entella is -0.087.
The offensive ability for the Venezia is 0.407 and for the Virtus Entella is 0.63.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Venezia is 0.245 and for the Virtus Entella is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Virtus Entella.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Venezia |
20% |
43% |
18% |
19% |
|
Virtus Entella |
40% |
36% |
17% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.59 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.37 goals and Virtus Entella to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.12 |
|
1 |
4.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
5.13 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |
|
Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.13 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.86 |
4.10 |
4.57 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.33 |
3.16 |
3.95 |
|
4+ goals |
1.91 |
4.33 |
4.06 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.19 |
3.42 |
3.98 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.10 |
4.57 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
9.40 |
3.09 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.49 |
5.56 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
4.33 |
4.06 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.47 |
4.18 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.44 |
3.98 |
|
No Goal |
1.62 |
6.62 |
4.34 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.36 |
2.71 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.62 |
4.08 |
Go to Top
Cittadella vs Reggiana at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cittadella and Reggiana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cittadella |
1.60 |
1.84 |
-8.2 |
|
Draw |
3.80 |
3.95 |
-1.0 |
|
Reggiana |
6.14 |
4.90 |
4.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.20 |
-5.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.83 |
0.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cittadella in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cittadella in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cittadella’s performance at home.
Cittadella, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cittadella scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cittadella was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Cosenza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Venezia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Reggiana in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance as a guest.
Reggiana, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Feb |
Chievo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Jan |
Spal |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Cittadella is -0.089 and for the Reggiana is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Cittadella is 0.461 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reggiana is -0.251.
The offensive ability for the Cittadella is 0.726 and for the Reggiana is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cittadella is -0.518 and for the Reggiana is -0.545.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cittadella and the red line for guest team, Reggiana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cittadella |
17% |
38% |
22% |
23% |
|
Reggiana |
43% |
33% |
17% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.79 goals and Reggiana to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cittadella to score 1.5 goals and Reggiana to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Cittadella to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.38 |
|
1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.78 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.38 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |
|
NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.80 |
3.95 |
5.19 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.86 |
3.96 |
4.76 |
|
4+ goals |
1.83 |
4.02 |
4.86 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.85 |
3.98 |
4.79 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.80 |
3.95 |
5.19 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
8.75 |
3.86 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.72 |
6.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.02 |
4.86 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
3.95 |
4.91 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.65 |
4.42 |
|
No Goal |
1.48 |
7.08 |
5.42 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.62 |
3.25 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.08 |
4.88 |
Go to Top
Pisa vs Empoli at 20 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Empoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pisa |
3.16 |
2.64 |
6.2 |
|
Draw |
3.20 |
3.58 |
-3.3 |
|
Empoli |
2.26 |
2.92 |
-10.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.18 |
-8.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.85 |
3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
12 Feb |
Monza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Feb |
Salernitana |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Reggiana |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Empoli in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance as a guest.
Empoli, as a guest, had 5 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Feb |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Monza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Salernitana |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Pisa is 0.037 and for the Empoli is 0.296.
The home dynamic for the Pisa is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Empoli is 0.569.
The offensive ability for the Pisa is 0.681 and for the Empoli is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Pisa is 0.245 and for the Empoli is -0.682.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Empoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pisa |
26% |
36% |
27% |
11% |
|
Empoli |
29% |
37% |
21% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.15 goals and Empoli to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.23 goals and Empoli to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
4.59 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |