# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Atromitos vs Larisa at 20 February 2021**** AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 20 February 2021**** Volos NFC vs Apollon at 21 February 2021**** PAOK vs Lamia at 21 February 2021**** Giannina vs OFI Crete at 21 February 2021**** Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos at 22 February 2021**

###
Atromitos vs Larisa at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atromitos** and **Larisa** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atromitos |
1.95 |
1.93 |
0.5 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.56 |
-5.5 |

Larisa |
4.51 |
5.00 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.74 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.57 |
0.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Atromitos, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atromitos** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atromitos** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance** at home**.

Atromitos,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
AEK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Larisa** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Larisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Larisa,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
AEK |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Atromitos** is **-0.496** and for the **Larisa** is **-0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Atromitos** is **0.006** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Larisa** is **-0.579.**

The offensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **0.704** and for the **Larisa** is **-0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Atromitos** is **-0.573** and for the **Larisa** is **-0.571.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atromitos** and the red line for guest team, **Larisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atromitos |
27% |
35% |
18% |
20% |

Larisa |
50% |
34% |
13% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.59** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atromitos** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Larisa** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.03** goals in the game and the home team **Atromitos ** to win by **0.61** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.58 |
0-1 |
2.54 |

1 |
3.82 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
6.85 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |

4 |
9.52 |
Un 1.5 |
2.54 |

5 |
30.30 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |

Gg |
2.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.85 |

NoG |
1.59 |
Un 3.5 |
1.17 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
2.98 |
4.43 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
3.91 |
5.15 |

4+ goals |
1.55 |
4.71 |
6.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.08 |
5.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
2.98 |
4.43 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
11.71 |
4.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.55 |
5.16 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.55 |
4.71 |
6.95 |

Un 3.5 |
2.00 |
3.42 |
4.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.37 |
2.49 |
5.66 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
4.77 |
4.70 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
8.10 |
3.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
4.77 |
4.21 |

####
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###
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **AEK** and **Asteras Tripolis** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **20 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

AEK |
1.37 |
2.62 |
-34.8 |

Draw |
4.60 |
3.47 |
7.1 |

Asteras Tripolis |
7.74 |
3.02 |
20.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.58 |
-19.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.63 |
14.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (7.1 %, 20.2 %, 14.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**AEK** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AEK** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance** at home**.

AEK,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.

In these matches, AEK scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Aris |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Giannina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Aris |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Asteras Tripolis** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Asteras Tripolis** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance** as a guest**.

Asteras Tripolis,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **AEK** is **0.163** and for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **0.8.**

The home dynamic for the **AEK** is **0.078** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **-0.067.**

The offensive ability for the **AEK** is **0.311** and for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **0.607.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **AEK** is **-0.573** and for the **Asteras Tripolis** is **0.914.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **AEK** and the red line for guest team, **Asteras Tripolis. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

AEK |
34% |
31% |
22% |
13% |

Asteras Tripolis |
36% |
33% |
25% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **AEK** to score **2.16 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **0.61 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **AEK ** to win by **1.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **AEK** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Asteras Tripolis** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
2.89 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.88 |

3 |
4.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.53 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
2.89 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.58 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.63 |

Gg |
2.37 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.17 |
2.84 |
3.01 |

2-3 goals |
2.44 |
4.74 |
2.64 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
2.70 |
5.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.96 |
3.01 |

Un 1.5 |
3.17 |
2.84 |
3.01 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.14 |
2.93 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.73 |
3.06 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
2.70 |
5.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.70 |
3.70 |
2.78 |

Goal-Goal |
2.87 |
2.56 |
3.84 |

No Goal |
2.48 |
4.73 |
2.60 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.08 |
2.91 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
4.73 |
2.55 |

####
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###
Volos NFC vs Apollon at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Volos NFC** and **Apollon** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **21 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Volos NFC |
2.45 |
2.25 |
3.6 |

Draw |
2.82 |
3.45 |
-6.5 |

Apollon |
3.23 |
3.76 |
-4.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.83 |
-8.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.55 |
1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Volos NFC** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Volos NFC** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance** at home**.

Volos NFC,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Feb |
OFI Crete |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Apollon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Apollon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance** as a guest**.

Apollon,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Apollon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Volos NFC** is **0** and for the **Apollon** is **-0.459.**

The home dynamic for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.126** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Apollon** is **0.333.**

The offensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.037** and for the **Apollon** is **0.037.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Volos NFC** is **-0.209** and for the **Apollon** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Volos NFC** and the red line for guest team, **Apollon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Volos NFC |
29% |
35% |
24% |
11% |

Apollon |
44% |
33% |
13% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Volos NFC** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Apollon** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.69 |
0-1 |
2.60 |

1 |
3.94 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
6.71 |

3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |

4 |
9.80 |
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |

5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.83 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.55 |

Gg |
2.54 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.71 |

NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
2.95 |
3.88 |

2-3 goals |
1.99 |
3.96 |
4.10 |

4+ goals |
2.81 |
3.55 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.85 |
3.67 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
2.95 |
3.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
8.40 |
2.76 |

Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.61 |
4.65 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.81 |
3.55 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.18 |
3.43 |
4.00 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.46 |
3.90 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
4.66 |
3.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.57 |
2.73 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
4.66 |
3.81 |

####
Go to Top

###
PAOK vs Lamia at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PAOK** and **Lamia** for **Super League (Greece)**, which will take place on **21 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PAOK |
1.19 |
1.83 |
-29.4 |

Draw |
6.47 |
3.79 |
10.9 |

Lamia |
14.61 |
5.24 |
12.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.48 |
-15.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.68 |
10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Lamia, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 12.2 %, 10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PAOK** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PAOK** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance** at home**.

PAOK,** at home**, had 7 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.

In these matches, PAOK** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Jan |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
AEK |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Lamia** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lamia** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance** as a guest**.

Lamia,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lamia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

18 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **PAOK** is **0.348** and for the **Lamia** is **0.356.**

The home dynamic for the **PAOK** is **0.76** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Lamia** is **-0.477.**

The offensive ability for the **PAOK** is **0.681** and for the **Lamia** is **-0.015.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **PAOK** is **0.245** and for the **Lamia** is **1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PAOK** and the red line for guest team, **Lamia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PAOK |
25% |
32% |
18% |
25% |

Lamia |
49% |
34% |
15% |
3% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **2.3 ** goals and **Lamia** to score **0.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **1.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PAOK** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Lamia** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **PAOK ** to win by **0.7** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
2.75 |

1 |
4.13 |
2-3 |
2.14 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
5.95 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |

4 |
8.47 |
Un 1.5 |
2.75 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |

6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.61 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |

NoG |
1.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |