2021 02 19 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Atromitos vs Larisa at 20 February 2021
AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 20 February 2021
Volos NFC vs Apollon at 21 February 2021
PAOK vs Lamia at 21 February 2021
Giannina vs OFI Crete at 21 February 2021
Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos at 22 February 2021


Atromitos vs Larisa at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

1.95

1.93

0.5

Draw

2.98

3.56

-5.5

Larisa

4.51

5.00

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.40

2.74

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.58

1.57

0.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos, Under 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Apollon

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Panathinaikos

H

2

3

L

O

G

31 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Olympiakos

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Jan

Lamia

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N


Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

AEK

H

2

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Jan

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Atromitos is -0.496 and for the Larisa is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Atromitos is 0.006 and the dynamic as a guest for the Larisa is -0.579.
The offensive ability for the Atromitos is 0.704 and for the Larisa is -0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Atromitos is -0.573 and for the Larisa is -0.571.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

27%

35%

18%

20%

Larisa

50%

34%

13%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.37 goals and Larisa to score 0.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.32 goals and Larisa to score 0.71 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and the home team Atromitos to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.58

0-1

2.54

1

3.82

2-3

2.18

2

4.15

4+

6.85

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.66

4

9.52

Un 1.5

2.54

5

30.30

Ov 2.5

2.75

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.57

Gg

2.72

Ov 3.5

6.85

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.17

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.28

2.98

4.43

2-3 goals

1.82

3.91

5.15

4+ goals

1.55

4.71

6.95

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.08

5.49

Un 1.5

2.28

2.98

4.43

Ov 2.5

1.42

11.71

4.78

Un 2.5

2.41

2.55

5.16

Ov 3.5

1.55

4.71

6.95

Un 3.5

2.00

3.42

4.79

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.49

5.66

No Goal

1.73

4.77

4.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

8.10

3.86

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

4.77

4.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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AEK vs Asteras Tripolis at 20 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 20 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

1.37

2.62

-34.8

Draw

4.60

3.47

7.1

Asteras Tripolis

7.74

3.02

20.2

Over 2.5

1.71

2.58

-19.7

Under 2.5

2.12

1.63

14.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Asteras Tripolis, Under 2.5 (7.1 %, 20.2 %, 14.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AEK in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

Larisa

A

4

2

W

O

G

07 Feb

Aris

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Giannina

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Jan

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Lamia

A

1

0

W

U

N


Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance as a guest.
Asteras Tripolis, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Volos NFC

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Aris

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

OFI Crete

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Larisa

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Panetolikos

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Olympiakos

H

0

4

L

O

N


The form score for the AEK is 0.163 and for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.8.
The home dynamic for the AEK is 0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.067.
The offensive ability for the AEK is 0.311 and for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.607.
Finally, the defensive ability for the AEK is -0.573 and for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.914.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

34%

31%

22%

13%

Asteras Tripolis

36%

33%

25%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 2.16 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 1.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.13 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.89

1

4.46

2-3

2.07

2

3.76

4+

5.88

3

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.53

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.89

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.58

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.63

Gg

2.37

Ov 3.5

5.88

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.17

2.84

3.01

2-3 goals

2.44

4.74

2.64

4+ goals

2.33

2.70

5.00

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.96

3.01

Un 1.5

3.17

2.84

3.01

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.14

2.93

Un 2.5

3.26

2.73

3.06

Ov 3.5

2.33

2.70

5.00

Un 3.5

2.70

3.70

2.78

Goal-Goal

2.87

2.56

3.84

No Goal

2.48

4.73

2.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

5.08

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

2.71

4.73

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Volos NFC vs Apollon at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Volos NFC and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Volos NFC

2.45

2.25

3.6

Draw

2.82

3.45

-6.5

Apollon

3.23

3.76

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.28

2.83

-8.5

Under 2.5

1.59

1.55

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Volos NFC in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance at home.
Volos NFC, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Feb

OFI Crete

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Larisa

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lamia

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

PAOK

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Jan

Aris

A

0

2

L

U

N


Apollon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Feb

Lamia

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Lamia

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Volos NFC is 0 and for the Apollon is -0.459.
The home dynamic for the Volos NFC is -0.126 and the dynamic as a guest for the Apollon is 0.333.
The offensive ability for the Volos NFC is -0.037 and for the Apollon is 0.037.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Volos NFC is -0.209 and for the Apollon is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Volos NFC and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Volos NFC

29%

35%

24%

11%

Apollon

44%

33%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.2 goals and Apollon to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Volos NFC to score 1.17 goals and Apollon to score 0.87 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.69

0-1

2.60

1

3.94

2-3

2.14

2

3.80

4+

6.71

3

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.62

4

9.80

Un 1.5

2.60

5

27.03

Ov 2.5

2.83

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.55

Gg

2.54

Ov 3.5

6.71

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.48

2.95

3.88

2-3 goals

1.99

3.96

4.10

4+ goals

2.81

3.55

2.76

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.85

3.67

Un 1.5

2.48

2.95

3.88

Ov 2.5

1.93

8.40

2.76

Un 2.5

2.49

2.61

4.65

Ov 3.5

2.81

3.55

2.76

Un 3.5

2.18

3.43

4.00

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.46

3.90

No Goal

1.95

4.66

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

6.57

2.73

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

4.66

3.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


PAOK vs Lamia at 21 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 21 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.19

1.83

-29.4

Draw

6.47

3.79

10.9

Lamia

14.61

5.24

12.2

Over 2.5

1.79

2.48

-15.5

Under 2.5

2.03

1.68

10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lamia, Under 2.5 (10.9 %, 12.2 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Feb

Giannina

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Apollon

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Panetolikos

H

5

0

W

O

N

27 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

AEK

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

OFI Crete

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Volos NFC

H

3

1

W

O

G


Lamia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

18 Feb

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Panetolikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Jan

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Atromitos

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Jan

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the PAOK is 0.348 and for the Lamia is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the PAOK is 0.76 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lamia is -0.477.
The offensive ability for the PAOK is 0.681 and for the Lamia is -0.015.
Finally, the defensive ability for the PAOK is 0.245 and for the Lamia is 1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

25%

32%

18%

25%

Lamia

49%

34%

15%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.3 goals and Lamia to score 0.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 1.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.42 goals and Lamia to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.75

1

4.13

2-3

2.14

2

4.31

4+

5.95

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

8.47

Un 1.5

2.75

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

125.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.61

Ov 3.5

5.95

NoG

1.62

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-