Euroleague analysis Feb 23 – Feb 26



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zalgiris vs Crvena Zvezda at 23 February 2021
Real Madrid vs Zalgiris at 25 February 2021
Bayern Munich vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 25 February 2021
Olimpia Milano vs Khimki at 25 February 2021
Olympiacos vs CSKA Moscow at 25 February 2021
Zenit vs Valencia at 25 February 2021
Alba Berlin vs Panathinaikos at 26 February 2021
Fenerbahce vs Anadolu Efes at 26 February 2021
Baskonia vs Crvena Zvezda at 26 February 2021
Barcelona vs Villeurbanne at 26 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Zalgiris vs Crvena Zvezda at 23 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Crvena Zvezda for EuroLeague, which will take place on 23 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

1.25

1.85

Crvena Zvezda

4.25

2.18

Zalgiris HC

-8.5

-2.00

Crvena Zvezda HC

+8.5

2.00

Point Line

155.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 18

A

FC Barcelona

L

62

86

13

11

L 2

67

84

Jan 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

81

13

10

L 1

69

81

Jan 27

A

Valencia Basket

W

79

78

13

9

W 2

76

75

Jan 22

H

Olympiacos

W

81

79

12

9

W 1

80

80

Jan 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

65

77

11

9

L 2

69

79

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

73

78

Jan 8

H

BC Khimki

W

102

75

11

7

W 6

87

76

Dec 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

74

71

10

7

W 5

71

73

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 19

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

75

76

7

17

L 4

79

78

Jan 29

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

78

81

7

16

L 3

78

83

Jan 26

A

Anadolu Efes

L

72

86

7

15

L 2

75

86

Jan 22

H

FC Barcelona

L

60

72

7

14

L 1

64

70

Jan 18

A

Real Madrid

W

79

77

7

13

W 1

81

75

Jan 15

A

Valencia Basket

L

71

91

6

13

L 2

68

88

Jan 7

H

Fenerbahce

L

71

73

6

12

L 1

72

73

Dec 30

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

71

6

11

W 1

71

70

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris (in the first graph) and by Crvena Zvezda in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris will expected to score 78 points and the Crvena Zvezda 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris

Crvena Zvezda

FG%

0.57

0.51

ASS

18.50

14.30

DRB

21.20

19.20

AST-TO

1.48

1.16

TRB

29.30

27.50

FTM

12.50

14.50

BL

1.20

2.00

FTA

14.50

17.50

PF-Fewer

19.50

21.80

ST

6.30

6.80

TO-Fewer

12.50

12.30

Ftper

0.86

0.82

ORBper

0.38

0.43

ORB

8.10

8.30


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Real Madrid vs Zalgiris at 25 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Zalgiris for EuroLeague, which will take place on 25 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Real Madrid

1.28

1.44

Zalgiris

3.8

3.26

Real Madrid HC

-7.5

-5.50

Zalgiris HC

+7.5

5.50

Point Line

160.5

156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 19

A

Valencia Basket

L

78

89

15

9

L 1

75

86

Jan 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

72

63

15

8

W 2

69

65

Jan 27

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

76

66

14

8

W 1

73

65

Jan 21

A

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

84

86

13

8

L 2

84

86

Jan 18

H

Crvena zvezda mts

L

77

79

13

7

L 1

78

84

Jan 15

A

Bayern Munich

W

81

76

13

6

W 1

82

76

Jan 8

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

76

80

12

6

L 1

78

78

Dec 29

A

Anadolu Efes

W

73

65

12

5

W 6

76

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 18

A

FC Barcelona

L

62

86

13

11

L 2

67

84

Jan 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

81

13

10

L 1

69

81

Jan 27

A

Valencia Basket

W

79

78

13

9

W 2

76

75

Jan 22

H

Olympiacos

W

81

79

12

9

W 1

80

80

Jan 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

65

77

11

9

L 2

69

79

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

73

78

Jan 8

H

BC Khimki

W

102

75

11

7

W 6

87

76

Dec 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

74

71

10

7

W 5

71

73

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by Zalgiris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 79 points and the Zalgiris 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Real Madrid

Zalgiris

FG%

0.56

0.57

ASS

19.00

18.50

DRB

23.30

21.20

AST-TO

1.58

1.48

TRB

31.40

29.30

FTM

12.00

12.50

BL

3.50

1.20

FTA

14.80

14.50

PF-Fewer

19.00

19.50

ST

6.50

6.30

TO-Fewer

12.00

12.50

Ftper

0.81

0.86

ORBper

0.35

0.38

ORB

8.10

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bayern Munich vs Maccabi Tel Aviv at 25 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Maccabi Tel Aviv for EuroLeague, which will take place on 25 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayern Munich

1.7

2.73

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.22

1.58

Bayern Munich HC

-2.5

4.50

Maccabi Tel Aviv HC

+2.5

-4.50

Point Line

157.5

155.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 19

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

79

87

15

10

L 1

78

90

Feb 5

H

Alba Berlin

W

101

95

15

9

W 3

96

98

Jan 29

A

CSKA Moscow

W

69

66

14

9

W 2

69

62

Jan 26

A

BC Khimki

W

95

93

13

9

W 1

81

94

Jan 21

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

51

75

12

9

L 2

52

73

Jan 15

H

Real Madrid

L

76

81

12

8

L 1

78

79

Jan 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

80

12

7

W 1

87

82

Jan 8

A

Olympiacos

L

82

84

11

7

L 1

80

84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Maccabi Tel Aviv are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 18

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

68

87

10

13

L 2

69

85

Jan 26

A

Fenerbahce

L

75

82

10

12

L 1

76

82

Jan 21

H

Real Madrid

W

86

84

10

11

W 2

88

82

Jan 14

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

91

82

9

11

W 1

92

82

Jan 12

H

Olympiacos

L

87

89

8

11

L 1

85

90

Jan 7

A

Alba Berlin

W

85

73

8

10

W 1

81

75

Dec 29

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

72

78

7

10

L 1

76

80

Dec 22

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

89

81

7

9

W 2

86

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Maccabi Tel Aviv and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayern Munich (in the first graph) and by Maccabi Tel Aviv in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayern Munich will expected to score 79 points and the Maccabi Tel Aviv 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bayern Munich

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FG%

0.53

0.53

ASS

16.80

16.00

DRB

21.90

22.70

AST-TO

1.25

1.23

TRB

29.00

31.10

FTM

16.20

12.60

BL

2.00

2.30

FTA

19.90

16.30

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.40

ST

6.00

7.00

TO-Fewer

13.40

13.00

Ftper

0.81

0.77

ORBper

0.32

0.37

ORB

7.10

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olimpia Milano vs Khimki at 25 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olimpia Milano and Khimki for EuroLeague, which will take place on 25 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olimpia Milano

1.07

1.52

Khimki

9.5

2.93

Olimpia Milano HC

-16.5

-5.00

Khimki HC

+16.5

5.00

Point Line

167.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olimpia Milano are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 22

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

70

79

16

9

L 1

74

81

Feb 18

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

W

87

68

16

8

W 1

87

68

Feb 5

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

69

78

15

8

L 1

68

80

Jan 28

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

76

15

7

W 6

87

78

Jan 26

H

Olympiacos

W

90

79

14

7

W 5

88

80

Jan 21

H

Bayern Munich

W

75

51

13

7

W 4

76

51

Jan 14

A

Alba Berlin

W

84

70

12

7

W 3

80

72

Jan 12

H

Valencia Basket

W

95

80

11

7

W 2

91

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 18

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

67

89

2

22

L 16

68

89

Jan 28

H

Fenerbahce

L

76

107

2

21

L 15

77

108

Jan 26

H

Bayern Munich

L

93

95

2

20

L 14

95

96

Jan 21

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

78

94

2

19

L 13

75

92

Jan 14

A

Anadolu Efes

L

60

99

2

18

L 12

62

99

Jan 12

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

87

2

17

L 11

81

85

Jan 8

A

Zalgiris

L

75

102

2

16

L 10

76

103

Dec 29

H

Olympiacos

L

88

105

2

15

L 9

86

106

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Olimpia Milano and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Olimpia Milano.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Olimpia Milano (in the first graph) and by Khimki in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Olimpia Milano will expected to score 86 points and the Khimki 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Olimpia Milano

Khimki

FG%

0.56

0.53

ASS

16.00

18.60

DRB

21.30

20.00

AST-TO

1.52

1.39

TRB

27.60

27.80

FTM

13.90

12.80

BL

2.30

3.40

FTA

17.20

16.30

PF-Fewer

19.70

22.00

ST

6.60

6.30

TO-Fewer

10.50

13.40

Ftper

0.81

0.78

ORBper

0.30

0.39

ORB

6.30

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Olympiacos vs CSKA Moscow at 25 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Olympiacos and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 25 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Olympiacos

2.3

2.29

CSKA Moscow

1.65

1.78

Olympiacos HC

+3.5

2.50

CSKA Moscow HC

-3.5

-2.50

Point Line

159.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Olympiacos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 18

A

Anadolu Efes

L

53

76

11

14

L 5

55

76

Feb 5

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

77

88

11

13

L 4

74

87

Jan 28

H

FC Barcelona

L

74

76

11

12

L 3

80

74

Jan 26

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

79

90

11

11

L 2