# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Middlesbrough vs Bristol City at 23 February 2021**** Wycombe vs Reading at 23 February 2021**** Luton vs Millwall at 23 February 2021**** Derby vs Huddersfield at 23 February 2021**** Birmingham vs Norwich at 23 February 2021**** Rotherham vs Nott’m Forest at 23 February 2021**** Swansea vs Coventry at 24 February 2021**** Preston vs QPR at 24 February 2021**** Brentford vs Sheffield Weds at 24 February 2021**** Bournemouth vs Cardiff at 24 February 2021**** Blackburn vs Watford at 24 February 2021**** Barnsley vs Stoke at 24 February 2021**

###
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Middlesbrough** and **Bristol City** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Middlesbrough |
1.66 |
1.92 |
-8.2 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.88 |
-0.8 |

Bristol City |
5.45 |
4.52 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.07 |
1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.93 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol City, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** at home**.

Middlesbrough,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol City,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Watford |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Derby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.086** and for the **Bristol City** is **-1.**

The home dynamic for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.143** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bristol City** is **0.497.**

The offensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.3** and for the **Bristol City** is **-1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.005** and for the **Bristol City** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Middlesbrough** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Middlesbrough |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |

Bristol City |
36% |
41% |
14% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **0.71 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.93** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.28 |
3.82 |
3.33 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
3.90 |
5.62 |

4+ goals |
1.94 |
3.88 |
4.40 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.82 |
3.89 |
5.17 |

Un 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.82 |
3.33 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
8.15 |
4.18 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.61 |
4.90 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.88 |
4.40 |

Un 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.87 |
4.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.74 |
5.31 |

No Goal |
1.66 |
7.06 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.59 |
3.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
7.06 |
3.66 |

####
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###
Wycombe vs Reading at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **Reading** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
4.11 |
3.03 |
8.7 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.69 |
-1.3 |

Reading |
1.91 |
2.51 |
-12.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.23 |
-4.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe (8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Derby |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Huddersfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
7 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** as a guest**.

Reading,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Preston |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wycombe** is **-0.367** and for the **Reading** is **-0.151.**

The home dynamic for the **Wycombe** is **-0.379** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reading** is **0.228.**

The offensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **-0.573** and for the **Reading** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **-0.037** and for the **Reading** is **-0.171.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **Reading. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
35% |
34% |
17% |
14% |

Reading |
32% |
29% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the guest team **Reading ** to win by **0.65** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.01 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.26 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.98 |
2.87 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
3.11 |
4.75 |
2.13 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.53 |
2.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.04 |
4.28 |
2.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
2.87 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.63 |
7.24 |
2.08 |

Un 2.5 |
3.44 |
2.64 |
3.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.53 |
2.70 |

Un 3.5 |
3.06 |
3.75 |
2.46 |

Goal-Goal |
3.54 |
2.79 |
2.79 |

No Goal |
2.70 |
5.01 |
2.33 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
5.58 |
2.18 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
5.01 |
2.49 |

####
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###
Luton vs Millwall at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Luton** and **Millwall** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Luton |
2.79 |
2.42 |
5.5 |

Draw |
3.05 |
3.40 |
-3.4 |

Millwall |
2.75 |
3.41 |
-7.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.38 |
2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.72 |
-7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Luton, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Luton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Luton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance** at home**.

Luton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Luton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Luton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Bournemouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
QPR |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Millwall** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Millwall** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance** as a guest**.

Millwall,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Millwall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Reading |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Watford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Luton** is **-0.584** and for the **Millwall** is **0.627.**

The home dynamic for the **Luton** is **-0.255** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Millwall** is **0.24.**

The offensive ability for the **Luton** is **-0.636** and for the **Millwall** is **0.191.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Luton** is **-0.497** and for the **Millwall** is **0.318.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Luton** and the red line for guest team, **Millwall. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Luton |
27% |
39% |
14% |
20% |

Millwall |
35% |
40% |
12% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Luton** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.07** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Luton** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Millwall** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.53 |
0-1 |
2.93 |

1 |
4.07 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
2.93 |

5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.51 |
3.59 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
2.57 |
2.85 |
3.83 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
5.05 |
3.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.32 |
3.59 |

Un 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.59 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
10.00 |
2.80 |

Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.31 |
4.03 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
5.05 |
3.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.13 |
3.48 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.39 |
4.09 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
5.54 |
2.96 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
7.57 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.54 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Derby vs Huddersfield at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
2.18 |
2.28 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.64 |
-3.2 |

Huddersfield |
3.50 |
3.50 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.20 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.83 |
-4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Watford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Derby** is **0.367** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.246.**

The home dynamic for the **Derby** is **-0.764** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.064.**

The offensive ability for the **Derby** is **0.609** and for the **Huddersfield** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.176** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
25% |
36% |
20% |
19% |

Huddersfield |
34% |
38% |
17% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Derby ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.31 |

1 |
4.63 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.31 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |