Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Middlesbrough vs Bristol City at 23 February 2021
Wycombe vs Reading at 23 February 2021
Luton vs Millwall at 23 February 2021
Derby vs Huddersfield at 23 February 2021
Birmingham vs Norwich at 23 February 2021
Rotherham vs Nott’m Forest at 23 February 2021
Swansea vs Coventry at 24 February 2021
Preston vs QPR at 24 February 2021
Brentford vs Sheffield Weds at 24 February 2021
Bournemouth vs Cardiff at 24 February 2021
Blackburn vs Watford at 24 February 2021
Barnsley vs Stoke at 24 February 2021

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Middlesbrough vs Bristol City at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 57.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

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Bristol City in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

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The form score for the Middlesbrough is -0.086 and for the Bristol City is -1.
The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is 0.143 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol City is 0.497.
The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is 0.3 and for the Bristol City is -1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -0.005 and for the Bristol City is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.64 goals and Bristol City to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.51 goals and Bristol City to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Wycombe vs Reading at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 24.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

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Reading in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

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The form score for the Wycombe is -0.367 and for the Reading is -0.151.
The home dynamic for the Wycombe is -0.379 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is 0.228.
The offensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.573 and for the Reading is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.037 and for the Reading is -0.171.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.88 goals and Reading to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Reading to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.11 goals and Reading to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Luton vs Millwall at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Luton and Millwall for Championship (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at Luton, Over 2.5 (5.5 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Luton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Luton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Luton’s performance at home.
Luton, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Luton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Luton was :

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Millwall in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Millwall in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Millwall’s performance as a guest.
Millwall, as a guest, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Millwall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Millwall was :

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The form score for the Luton is -0.584 and for the Millwall is 0.627.
The home dynamic for the Luton is -0.255 and the dynamic as a guest for the Millwall is 0.24.
The offensive ability for the Luton is -0.636 and for the Millwall is 0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is -0.497 and for the Millwall is 0.318.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Luton and the red line for guest team, Millwall.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.03 goals and Millwall to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.26 goals and Millwall to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top

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Derby vs Huddersfield at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 35.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

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Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

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The form score for the Derby is 0.367 and for the Huddersfield is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Derby is -0.764 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.064.
The offensive ability for the Derby is 0.609 and for the Huddersfield is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.176 and for the Huddersfield is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.33 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Derby to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.34 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.