2021 02 23 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Chesterfield vs Altrincham at 23 February 2021
Stockport vs Notts County at 23 February 2021
Yeovil vs Weymouth at 23 February 2021
Wrexham vs Hartlepool at 23 February 2021
Wealdstone vs Eastleigh at 23 February 2021
Solihull vs Torquay at 23 February 2021
Maidenhead vs Aldershot at 23 February 2021
Dag and Red vs Sutton at 23 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Bromley at 23 February 2021
King’s Lynn vs Barnet at 23 February 2021


Chesterfield vs Altrincham at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Chesterfield and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chesterfield

2.01

2.14

-3.0

Draw

3.55

3.89

-2.5

Altrincham

3.36

3.62

-2.1

Over 2.5

1.91

1.98

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.90

2.02

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Chesterfield in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chesterfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance at home.
Chesterfield, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wrexham

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Jan

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Solihull

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Barnet

H

6

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N


Altrincham in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Yeovil

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Torquay

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Sutton

A

2

2

D

O

G

02 Jan

Stockport

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Chesterfield is 0.448 and for the Altrincham is -0.048.
The home dynamic for the Chesterfield is -0.54 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is 0.509.
The offensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.573 and for the Altrincham is 0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Chesterfield is 0.465 and for the Altrincham is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Chesterfield and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chesterfield

24%

28%

25%

22%

Altrincham

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.5 goals and Altrincham to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chesterfield to score 1.45 goals and Altrincham to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Chesterfield to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.85

1

5.56

2-3

2.07

2

4.26

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.85

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.83

3.25

2.95

2-3 goals

1.95

4.74

3.63

4+ goals

2.02

3.43

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.97

4.18

3.94

Un 1.5

2.83

3.25

2.95

Ov 2.5

1.73

6.73

3.66

Un 2.5

2.83

2.72

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.43

4.67

Un 3.5

2.19

4.08

3.36

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.88

4.50

No Goal

1.98

6.14

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.43

3.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.14

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stockport vs Notts County at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stockport

2.15

2.36

-4.1

Draw

3.38

3.70

-2.6

Notts County

3.11

3.27

-1.6

Over 2.5

1.95

1.97

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.82

2.03

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stockport in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Maidenhead

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Sutton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

0

W

U

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Dag and Red

H

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Stockport is -0.041 and for the Notts County is 0.571.
The home dynamic for the Stockport is 0.093 and the dynamic as a guest for the Notts County is 0.743.
The offensive ability for the Stockport is -0.727 and for the Notts County is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stockport is 0.497 and for the Notts County is 0.567.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stockport

20%

38%

24%

18%

Notts County

30%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.4 goals and Notts County to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.4 goals and Notts County to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.10

1

5.46

2-3

2.01

2

4.02

4+

3.88

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.06

Un 1.5

4.10

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

4.00

3.39

2-3 goals

2.38

3.77

3.19

4+ goals

2.50

3.35

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.61

3.23

Un 1.5

2.20

4.00

3.39

Ov 2.5

2.10

6.57

2.69

Un 2.5

2.71

2.55

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.50

3.35

3.31

Un 3.5

2.32

3.84

3.25

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.67

3.45

No Goal

1.87

7.21

3.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.55

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

7.21

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Yeovil vs Weymouth at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Weymouth for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

1.63

2.27

-17.3

Draw

3.85

3.80

0.3

Weymouth

4.66

3.38

8.1

Over 2.5

1.73

2.00

-7.8

Under 2.5

2.10

2.00

2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Weymouth, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 8.1 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Stockport

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Maidenhead

A

2

4

L

O

G

05 Jan

Weymouth

A

3

0

W

O

N


Weymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Weymouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance as a guest.
Weymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Bromley

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Aldershot

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Hartlepool

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Jan

Yeovil

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Eastleigh

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Yeovil is 0.005 and for the Weymouth is 0.214.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is -0.863 and the dynamic as a guest for the Weymouth is -0.216.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.245 and for the Weymouth is -0.243.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -0.497 and for the Weymouth is 0.198.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Weymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

24%

31%

25%

20%

Weymouth

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.88 goals and Weymouth to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.41 goals and Weymouth to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.88

1

5.46

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.92

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.44

3.00

2-3 goals

2.13

4.37

3.32

4+ goals

2.22

3.36

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.96

3.52

Un 1.5

2.66

3.44

3.00

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.58

3.16

Un 2.5

2.86

2.68

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.36

3.98

Un 3.5

2.29

3.99

3.20

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.79

3.98

No Goal

2.01

6.36

2.89

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

5.39

3.13

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.36

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Hartlepool at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.71

2.23

7.9

Draw

3.13

3.79

-5.6

Hartlepool

2.55

3.46

-10.3

Over 2.5

2.04

1.98

1.5

Under 2.5

1.75

2.02

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Woking

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Dag and Red

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Chesterfield

A

1

2

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Halifax

H

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.385 and for the Hartlepool is 0.429.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.155 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hartlepool is 0.228.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.518 and for the Hartlepool is 0.652.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.07 and for the Hartlepool is -0.171.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

22%

33%

25%

20%

Hartlepool

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.17 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.43 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.00

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.89

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.00

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals