# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Chesterfield vs Altrincham at 23 February 2021**** Stockport vs Notts County at 23 February 2021**** Yeovil vs Weymouth at 23 February 2021**** Wrexham vs Hartlepool at 23 February 2021**** Wealdstone vs Eastleigh at 23 February 2021**** Solihull vs Torquay at 23 February 2021**** Maidenhead vs Aldershot at 23 February 2021**** Dag and Red vs Sutton at 23 February 2021**** Boreham Wood vs Bromley at 23 February 2021**** King’s Lynn vs Barnet at 23 February 2021**

###
Chesterfield vs Altrincham at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Chesterfield** and **Altrincham** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Chesterfield |
2.01 |
2.14 |
-3.0 |

Draw |
3.55 |
3.89 |
-2.5 |

Altrincham |
3.36 |
3.62 |
-2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.98 |
-1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.02 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Chesterfield** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chesterfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chesterfield’s performance** at home**.

Chesterfield,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Chesterfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chesterfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Barnet |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Altrincham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Altrincham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance** as a guest**.

Altrincham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Yeovil |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Sutton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Chesterfield** is **0.448** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.048.**

The home dynamic for the **Chesterfield** is **-0.54** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Altrincham** is **0.509.**

The offensive ability for the **Chesterfield** is **0.573** and for the **Altrincham** is **0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Chesterfield** is **0.465** and for the **Altrincham** is **-0.631.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Chesterfield** and the red line for guest team, **Altrincham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Chesterfield |
24% |
28% |
25% |
22% |

Altrincham |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Chesterfield** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Altrincham** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Chesterfield ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.83 |
3.25 |
2.95 |

2-3 goals |
1.95 |
4.74 |
3.63 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.43 |
4.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
4.18 |
3.94 |

Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.25 |
2.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
6.73 |
3.66 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.72 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.43 |
4.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
4.08 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
2.32 |
2.88 |
4.50 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.14 |
3.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.43 |
3.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.14 |
2.85 |

####
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###
Stockport vs Notts County at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stockport** and **Notts County** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stockport |
2.15 |
2.36 |
-4.1 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.70 |
-2.6 |

Notts County |
3.11 |
3.27 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.97 |
-0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.03 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** at home**.

Stockport,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Woking |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** as a guest**.

Notts County,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Stockport** is **-0.041** and for the **Notts County** is **0.571.**

The home dynamic for the **Stockport** is **0.093** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Notts County** is **0.743.**

The offensive ability for the **Stockport** is **-0.727** and for the **Notts County** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stockport** is **0.497** and for the **Notts County** is **0.567.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stockport** and the red line for guest team, **Notts County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stockport |
20% |
38% |
24% |
18% |

Notts County |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stockport** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Stockport ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stockport** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.10 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.10 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.20 |
4.00 |
3.39 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |
3.77 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.35 |
3.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.61 |
3.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.20 |
4.00 |
3.39 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.57 |
2.69 |

Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
2.55 |
4.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.35 |
3.31 |

Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.84 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.67 |
3.45 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
7.21 |
3.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.55 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.21 |
3.06 |

####
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###
Yeovil vs Weymouth at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Yeovil** and **Weymouth** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Yeovil |
1.63 |
2.27 |
-17.3 |

Draw |
3.85 |
3.80 |
0.3 |

Weymouth |
4.66 |
3.38 |
8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.00 |
-7.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.00 |
2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Weymouth, Under 2.5 (0.3 %, 8.1 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** at home**.

Yeovil,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Maidenhead |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Weymouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Weymouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Weymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Weymouth,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Weymouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Weymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Aldershot |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Hartlepool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Yeovil** is **0.005** and for the **Weymouth** is **0.214.**

The home dynamic for the **Yeovil** is **-0.863** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Weymouth** is **-0.216.**

The offensive ability for the **Yeovil** is **0.245** and for the **Weymouth** is **-0.243.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Yeovil** is **-0.497** and for the **Weymouth** is **0.198.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Yeovil** and the red line for guest team, **Weymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Yeovil |
24% |
31% |
25% |
20% |

Weymouth |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **1.88 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Yeovil ** to win by **1.01** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Yeovil** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Weymouth** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.44 |
3.00 |

2-3 goals |
2.13 |
4.37 |
3.32 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.96 |
3.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.44 |
3.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.58 |
3.16 |

Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.68 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.36 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.99 |
3.20 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.79 |
3.98 |

No Goal |
2.01 |
6.36 |
2.89 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.39 |
3.13 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.36 |
2.80 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wrexham vs Hartlepool at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **Hartlepool** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
2.71 |
2.23 |
7.9 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.79 |
-5.6 |

Hartlepool |
2.55 |
3.46 |
-10.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.98 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.02 |
-7.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wrexham, Over 2.5 (7.9 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Woking |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Hartlepool** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hartlepool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance** as a guest**.

Hartlepool,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sutton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.385** and for the **Hartlepool** is **0.429.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.155** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Hartlepool** is **0.228.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.518** and for the **Hartlepool** is **0.652.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **-0.07** and for the **Hartlepool** is **-0.171.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **Hartlepool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
22% |
33% |
25% |
20% |

Hartlepool |
31% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Hartlepool** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.89 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |