2021 02 23 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Groningen vs Feyenoord at 24 February 2021
Willem II vs Den Haag at 24 February 2021


Groningen vs Feyenoord at 24 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Feyenoord for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 24 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Groningen

3.50

2.40

13.1

Draw

3.59

3.95

-2.5

Feyenoord

2.00

3.03

-17.0

Over 2.5

1.70

1.62

2.9

Under 2.5

2.16

2.62

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Groningen, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Zwolle

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Twente

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Jan

Willem II

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Utrecht

A

2

2

D

O

G


Feyenoord in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Feyenoord in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Feyenoord’s performance as a guest.
Feyenoord, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Feyenoord scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Feyenoord was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Twente

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Willem II

H

5

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Heerenveen

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Ajax

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Jan

Zwolle

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Groningen is 0.05 and for the Feyenoord is -0.024.
The home dynamic for the Groningen is 0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Feyenoord is 0.918.
The offensive ability for the Groningen is 0.209 and for the Feyenoord is 0.304.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Groningen is -0.005 and for the Feyenoord is -0.539.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Feyenoord.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Groningen

19%

34%

19%

29%

Feyenoord

24%

31%

26%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.12 goals and Feyenoord to score 1.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the guest team Feyenoord to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.58 goals and Feyenoord to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.43

1

7.19

2-3

2.24

2

5.05

4+

2.71

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

4.93

Un 1.5

5.43

5

9.09

Ov 2.5

1.62

6+

17.86

Un 2.5

2.62

Gg

1.62

Ov 3.5

2.71

NoG

2.61

Un 3.5

1.58

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

4.09

3.17

2-3 goals

2.57

4.30

2.64

4+ goals

2.28

3.51

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.90

3.01

Un 1.5

2.27

4.09

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.13

5.89

2.77

Un 2.5

3.01

2.56

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.28

3.51

3.62

Un 3.5

2.47

4.23

2.78

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.95

3.30

No Goal

1.95

8.51

2.70

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.32

4.89

2.74

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

8.51

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Willem II vs Den Haag at 24 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and Den Haag for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 24 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

1.69

2.01

-9.4

Draw

3.94

3.98

-0.3

Den Haag

4.67

3.97

3.8

Over 2.5

1.71

1.93

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.18

2.08

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Utrecht

H

0

6

L

O

N

14 Feb

Feyenoord

A

0

5

L

O

N

31 Jan

FC Emmen

H

2

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Ajax

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Zwolle

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

2

L

O

G


Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance as a guest.
Den Haag, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

For Sittard

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Groningen

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Willem II is -0.611 and for the Den Haag is -0.46.
The home dynamic for the Willem II is -0.528 and the dynamic as a guest for the Den Haag is -0.041.
The offensive ability for the Willem II is 0.064 and for the Den Haag is -0.191.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Willem II is -0.497 and for the Den Haag is -0.631.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, Den Haag.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

22%

27%

26%

24%

Den Haag

33%

39%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.9 goals and Den Haag to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.53 goals and Den Haag to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.02

1

5.68

2-3

2.06

2

4.31

4+

3.76

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.02

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.41

2.93

2-3 goals

1.81

4.58

4.38

4+ goals

1.94

3.69

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.85

4.22

4.48

Un 1.5

2.74

3.41

2.93

Ov 2.5

1.63

7.22

4.03

Un 2.5

2.70

2.69

3.88

Ov 3.5

1.94

3.69

4.67

Un 3.5

2.04

4.11

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.94

4.93

No Goal

1.85

6.55

3.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

5.79

3.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.55

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top



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