2021 02 23 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barcelona vs Elche at 24 February 2021


Barcelona vs Elche at 24 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 24 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.14

2.01

-38.0

Draw

9.49

3.98

14.6

Elche

19.45

3.98

20.0

Over 2.5

1.32

2.03

-26.5

Under 2.5

3.31

1.97

20.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 20 %, 20.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Barcelona in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 69.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Alaves

H

5

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Betis

A

3

2

W

O

G

31 Jan

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Elche

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Granada

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Jan

Huesca

A

1

0

W

U

N


Elche in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Eibar

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Feb

Celta

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Villarreal

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Valencia

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Jan

Valladolid

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Jan

Getafe

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Barcelona is 1 and for the Elche is -0.246.
The home dynamic for the Barcelona is 0.416 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.088.
The offensive ability for the Barcelona is 1 and for the Elche is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Barcelona is -0.176 and for the Elche is -0.512.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

22%

28%

28%

21%

Elche

40%

30%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 3.28 goals and Elche to score 0.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.65 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 2.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.48 goals and Elche to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.75

1

5.56

2-3

2.04

2

4.17

4+

4.08

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.75

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.08

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.36

3.07

3.99

2-3 goals

1.75

5.69

3.98

4+ goals

2.33

3.14

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.91

4.48

3.97

Un 1.5

2.36

3.07

3.99

Ov 2.5

1.80

6.33

3.48

Un 2.5

2.26

2.93

4.61

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.14

3.95

Un 3.5

1.92

4.37

3.98

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.88

4.00

No Goal

1.72

6.08

3.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

4.95

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.08

3.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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