# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lincoln vs Swindon at 23 February 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Milton Keynes Dons at 23 February 2021**** Plymouth vs Peterboro at 23 February 2021**** Oxford vs Portsmouth at 23 February 2021**** Northampton vs Rochdale at 23 February 2021**** Hull vs Ipswich at 23 February 2021**** Crewe vs Accrington at 23 February 2021**** Charlton vs Burton at 23 February 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Wigan at 23 February 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham at 23 February 2021**** Sunderland vs Fleetwood Town at 23 February 2021**** Blackpool vs Doncaster at 23 February 2021**

###
Lincoln vs Swindon at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lincoln** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lincoln |
1.57 |
1.99 |
-13.4 |

Draw |
3.89 |
3.76 |
0.9 |

Swindon |
6.03 |
4.33 |
6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
2.23 |
-10.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
1.81 |
5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 6.5 %, 5.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** at home**.

Lincoln,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Wigan |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Hull |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 20.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Lincoln** is **0.448** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.23.**

The home dynamic for the **Lincoln** is **0.155** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Swindon** is **-0.439.**

The offensive ability for the **Lincoln** is **0.209** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.504.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Lincoln** is **0.358** and for the **Swindon** is **-0.604.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lincoln** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lincoln |
18% |
39% |
26% |
18% |

Swindon |
39% |
35% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.92 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **1.18** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lincoln** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.85 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.85 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.86 |
4.12 |
4.58 |

2-3 goals |
1.98 |
3.70 |
4.47 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.49 |
3.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.63 |
4.26 |

Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.12 |
4.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
7.59 |
3.27 |

Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.67 |
5.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.49 |
3.81 |

Un 3.5 |
1.93 |
3.84 |
4.51 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.55 |
4.11 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
7.22 |
4.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.17 |
2.98 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.64 |
7.22 |
4.45 |

####
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###
Shrewsbury vs Milton Keynes Dons at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.74 |
2.44 |
4.5 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.68 |
-4.5 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
2.65 |
3.13 |
-5.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.07 |
4.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.93 |
-9.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (4.5 %, 4.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.276** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.683.**

The home dynamic for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.602** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.029.**

The offensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **0.273** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Shrewsbury** is **-0.07** and for the **Milton Keynes Dons** is **-0.171.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
25% |
34% |
24% |
17% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.58 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |
4.00 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.22 |
3.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.71 |
3.22 |

Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.58 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.50 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.62 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.22 |
3.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.84 |
2.98 |

Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.67 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
6.36 |
2.66 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.46 |
2.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.36 |
2.64 |

####
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###
Plymouth vs Peterboro at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Plymouth** and **Peterboro** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Plymouth |
3.31 |
2.36 |
12.2 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.73 |
-2.1 |

Peterboro |
2.14 |
3.24 |
-15.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.04 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.96 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Plymouth (12.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** at home**.

Plymouth,** at home**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Rochdale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** as a guest**.

Peterboro,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Plymouth** is **0.629** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.683.**

The home dynamic for the **Plymouth** is **0.366** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Peterboro** is **0.181.**

The offensive ability for the **Plymouth** is **0.518** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.33.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Plymouth** is **1** and for the **Peterboro** is **0.226.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Plymouth** and the red line for guest team, **Peterboro. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Plymouth |
25% |
32% |
25% |
18% |

Peterboro |
30% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the guest team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Plymouth** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Peterboro** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.08 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
4.19 |
3.19 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.22 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.81 |
3.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.53 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.45 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.66 |
3.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.22 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.94 |
3.10 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.72 |
3.82 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
6.41 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.38 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.41 |
2.73 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs Portsmouth at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
2.71 |
2.51 |
2.9 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.76 |
-3.7 |

Portsmouth |
2.59 |
2.99 |
-5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.99 |
1.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.01 |
-6.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oxford, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Doncaster |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Burton |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Oxford** is **0.611** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.143.**

The home dynamic for the **Oxford** is **-0.354** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Portsmouth** is **0.719.**

The offensive ability for the **Oxford** is **0.518** and for the **Portsmouth** is **0.217.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oxford** is **0.497** and for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.567.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
27% |
30% |
25% |
18% |

Portsmouth |
27% |
37% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.88 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |