2021 02 23 League One (England)

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lincoln vs Swindon at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lincoln and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Lincoln	1.57	1.99	-13.4
Draw	3.89	3.76	0.9
Swindon	6.03	4.33	6.5
Over 2.5	1.81	2.23	-10.4
Under 2.5	2.02	1.81	5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 6.5 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance at home.
Lincoln, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Wigan	A	2	1	W	O	G
14 Feb	Accrington	H	2	2	D	O	G
09 Feb	Hull	A	0	0	D	U	N
05 Feb	Gillingham	A	3	0	W	O	N
30 Jan	Doncaster	H	0	1	L	U	N
26 Jan	Portsmouth	A	1	0	W	U	N
23 Jan	Northampton	H	2	1	W	O	G
09 Jan	Peterboro	H	1	1	D	U	G

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 20.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Crewe	H	2	1	W	O	G
09 Feb	Portsmouth	A	0	2	L	U	N
06 Feb	Shrewsbury	H	0	1	L	U	N
02 Feb	Wigan	H	1	0	W	U	N
30 Jan	Hull	A	0	1	L	U	N
26 Jan	Plymouth	H	0	2	L	U	N
23 Jan	Charlton	A	2	2	D	O	G
16 Jan	Doncaster	H	1	2	L	O	G

The form score for the Lincoln is 0.448 and for the Swindon is -0.23.
The home dynamic for the Lincoln is 0.155 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swindon is -0.439.
The offensive ability for the Lincoln is 0.209 and for the Swindon is -0.504.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lincoln is 0.358 and for the Swindon is -0.604.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lincoln and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Lincoln	18%	39%	26%	18%
Swindon	39%	35%	17%	8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.92 goals and Swindon to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lincoln to score 1.43 goals and Swindon to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lincoln to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	14.49	0-1	3.52
1	4.65	2-3	1.96
2	3.73	4+	4.85
3	4.13	Ov 1.5	1.40
4	7.19	Un 1.5	3.52
5	19.23	Ov 2.5	2.23
6+	66.67	Un 2.5	1.81
Gg	1.99	Ov 3.5	4.85
NoG	2.01	Un 3.5	1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	1.86	4.12	4.58
2-3 goals	1.98	3.70	4.47
4+ goals	2.22	3.49	3.81
Ov 1.5	2.04	3.63	4.26
Un 1.5	1.86	4.12	4.58
Ov 2.5	1.78	7.59	3.27
Un 2.5	2.19	2.67	5.94
Ov 3.5	2.22	3.49	3.81
Un 3.5	1.93	3.84	4.51
Goal-Goal	2.74	2.55	4.11
No Goal	1.55	7.22	4.61
G-G+Ov 2.5	1.99	6.17	2.98
NG+Un 2.5	1.64	7.22	4.45

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Milton Keynes Dons at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Shrewsbury	2.74	2.44	4.5
Draw	3.16	3.68	-4.5
Milton Keynes Dons	2.65	3.13	-5.8
Over 2.5	2.28	2.07	4.4
Under 2.5	1.64	1.93	-9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (4.5 %, 4.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Accrington	A	1	1	D	U	G
09 Feb	Sunderland	H	2	1	W	O	G
06 Feb	Swindon	A	1	0	W	U	N
02 Feb	Crewe	H	0	1	L	U	N
30 Jan	Peterboro	H	2	0	W	U	N
23 Jan	Sunderland	A	0	1	L	U	N
29 Dec	Blackpool	H	1	0	W	U	N
26 Dec	Wigan	A	1	1	D	U	G

Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Northampton	H	4	3	W	O	G
13 Feb	Hull	A	1	0	W	U	N
09 Feb	Rochdale	A	4	1	W	O	G
06 Feb	Sunderland	H	2	2	D	O	G
30 Jan	AFC Wimbledon	A	2	0	W	U	N
26 Jan	Charlton	H	0	1	L	U	N
19 Jan	Fleetwood Town	H	3	1	W	O	G
16 Jan	Peterboro	A	0	3	L	O	N

The form score for the Shrewsbury is 0.276 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.683.
The home dynamic for the Shrewsbury is -0.602 and the dynamic as a guest for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.029.
The offensive ability for the Shrewsbury is 0.273 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Shrewsbury is -0.07 and for the Milton Keynes Dons is -0.171.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Shrewsbury	25%	34%	24%	17%
Milton Keynes Dons	29%	36%	23%	11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.1 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.33 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.51	0-1	3.77
1	5.24	2-3	2.02
2	3.95	4+	4.20
3	4.12	Ov 1.5	1.36
4	6.49	Un 1.5	3.77
5	15.15	Ov 2.5	2.08
6+	55.56	Un 2.5	1.93
Gg	1.89	Ov 3.5	4.20
NoG	2.12	Un 3.5	1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	2.65	3.58	2.91
2-3 goals	2.38	4.00	3.02
4+ goals	2.38	3.22	3.72
Ov 1.5	2.38	3.71	3.22
Un 1.5	2.65	3.58	2.91
Ov 2.5	2.03	6.50	2.83
Un 2.5	3.03	2.62	3.48
Ov 3.5	2.38	3.22	3.72
Un 3.5	2.47	3.84	2.98
Goal-Goal	2.81	2.67	3.72
No Goal	2.14	6.36	2.66
G-G+Ov 2.5	2.15	5.46	2.85
NG+Un 2.5	2.30	6.36	2.64

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Plymouth vs Peterboro at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Plymouth and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Plymouth	3.31	2.36	12.2
Draw	3.46	3.73	-2.1
Peterboro	2.14	3.24	-15.9
Over 2.5	1.90	2.04	-3.6
Under 2.5	1.91	1.96	-1.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Plymouth (12.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Plymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance at home.
Plymouth, at home, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 14 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Rochdale	A	0	0	D	U	N
13 Feb	Fleetwood Town	H	1	0	W	U	N
09 Feb	Accrington	A	1	0	W	U	N
06 Feb	Portsmouth	A	2	2	D	O	G
30 Jan	Accrington	H	2	2	D	O	G
26 Jan	Swindon	A	2	0	W	U	N
19 Jan	Sunderland	A	2	1	W	O	G
16 Jan	Crewe	H	1	1	D	U	G

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance as a guest.
Peterboro, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	AFC Wimbledon	H	3	0	W	O	N
16 Feb	Gillingham	A	3	1	W	O	G
09 Feb	Ipswich	H	2	1	W	O	G
06 Feb	Crewe	H	2	0	W	U	N
30 Jan	Shrewsbury	A	0	2	L	U	N
26 Jan	Bristol Rvs	H	0	0	D	U	N
23 Jan	Ipswich	A	1	0	W	U	N
19 Jan	Charlton	H	2	1	W	O	G

The form score for the Plymouth is 0.629 and for the Peterboro is 0.683.
The home dynamic for the Plymouth is 0.366 and the dynamic as a guest for the Peterboro is 0.181.
The offensive ability for the Plymouth is 0.518 and for the Peterboro is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Plymouth is 1 and for the Peterboro is 0.226.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Plymouth and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Plymouth	25%	32%	25%	18%
Peterboro	30%	36%	22%	11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.07 goals and Peterboro to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the guest team Peterboro to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.36 goals and Peterboro to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.51	0-1	3.83
1	5.35	2-3	2.02
2	4.00	4+	4.08
3	4.08	Ov 1.5	1.35
4	6.37	Un 1.5	3.83
5	14.71	Ov 2.5	2.04
6+	50.00	Un 2.5	1.96
Gg	1.90	Ov 3.5	4.08
NoG	2.11	Un 3.5	1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals	2.66	3.53	2.93
2-3 goals	2.23	4.19	3.19
4+ goals	2.38	3.22	3.71
Ov 1.5	2.28	3.81	3.35
Un 1.5	2.66	3.53	2.93
Ov 2.5	1.98	6.45	2.95
Un 2.5	2.92	2.66	3.55
Ov 3.5	2.38	3.22	3.71
Un 3.5	2.36	3.94	3.10
Goal-Goal	2.70	2.72	3.82
No Goal	2.08	6.41	2.76
G-G+Ov 2.5	2.10	5.38	2.96
NG+Un 2.5	2.25	6.41	2.73

See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Oxford vs Portsmouth at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome	Book	Ours	Val %
Oxford	2.71	2.51	2.9
Draw	3.30	3.76	-3.7
Portsmouth	2.59	2.99	-5.2
Over 2.5	2.04	1.99	1.2
Under 2.5	1.79	2.01	-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oxford, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Ipswich	A	0	0	D	U	N
14 Feb	Wigan	H	2	1	W	O	G
09 Feb	Bristol Rvs	A	2	0	W	U	N
06 Feb	Doncaster	A	2	3	L	O	G
30 Jan	Fleetwood Town	H	1	0	W	U	N
26 Jan	Rochdale	A	4	3	W	O	G
23 Jan	Bristol Rvs	H	2	0	W	U	N
02 Jan	Burton	A	5	1	W	O	G

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date	versus	At	sc	rec	res	OU	Gg
20 Feb	Blackpool	H	0	1	L	U	N
16 Feb	Bristol Rvs	A	1	3	L	O	G
09 Feb	Swindon	H	2	0	W	U	N
06 Feb	Plymouth	H	2	2	D	O	G
02 Feb	Charlton	A	3	1	W	O	G
26 Jan	Lincoln	H	0	1	L	U	N
23 Jan	Hull	H	0	4	L	O	N
19 Jan	AFC Wimbledon	H	4	0	W	O	N

The form score for the Oxford is 0.611 and for the Portsmouth is -0.143.
The home dynamic for the Oxford is -0.354 and the dynamic as a guest for the Portsmouth is 0.719.
The offensive ability for the Oxford is 0.518 and for the Portsmouth is 0.217.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oxford is 0.497 and for the Portsmouth is -0.567.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team	No-G	1 gl	2 gls	3+ gls
Oxford	27%	30%	25%	18%
Portsmouth	27%	37%	23%	13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.19 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.34 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals	Odds	Goals	Odds
0	13.70	0-1	3.94
1	5.52	2-3	2.04
2	4.12	4+	3.88
3	4.07	Ov 1.5	1.34
4	6.13	Un 1.5	3.94
5	13.70	Ov 2.5	1.98
6+	45.45	Un 2.5	2.01
Gg	1.87	Ov 3.5	3.88
NoG	2.14	Un 3.5	1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at	-1-	-X-	-2-
0-1 goals