# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bradford vs Leyton Orient at 23 February 2021**** Morecambe vs Salford at 23 February 2021**** Bolton vs Scunthorpe at 23 February 2021**** Oldham vs Barrow at 23 February 2021**** Harrogate vs Mansfield at 23 February 2021**** Grimsby vs Crawley Town at 23 February 2021**** Colchester vs Exeter at 23 February 2021**** Carlisle vs Tranmere at 23 February 2021**** Cambridge vs Cheltenham at 23 February 2021**** Port Vale vs Stevenage at 23 February 2021**** Walsall vs Newport County at 24 February 2021**** Forest Green vs Southend at 24 February 2021**

###
Bradford vs Leyton Orient at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.22 |
2.69 |
-7.9 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |

Leyton Orient |
3.24 |
2.83 |
4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.18 |
-0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.85 |
-5.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leyton Orient (4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Southend |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Bradford** is **0.656** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Bradford** is **-0.205** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.287.**

The offensive ability for the **Bradford** is **0.664** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **-0.565.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bradford** is **-0.037** and for the **Leyton Orient** is **0.226.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
29% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

Leyton Orient |
29% |
36% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.36 |
2.78 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
4.16 |
2.79 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.13 |
3.00 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.77 |
2.85 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.36 |
2.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
6.45 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
3.18 |
2.67 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.13 |
3.00 |

Un 3.5 |
2.63 |
3.83 |
2.78 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.65 |
3.38 |

No Goal |
2.39 |
5.87 |
2.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.38 |
2.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
5.87 |
2.52 |

####
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###
Morecambe vs Salford at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Morecambe** and **Salford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Morecambe |
2.81 |
2.68 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.62 |
-3.1 |

Salford |
2.54 |
2.85 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.24 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.81 |
-0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** at home**.

Morecambe,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** as a guest**.

Salford,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Morecambe** is **0.023** and for the **Salford** is **0.286.**

The home dynamic for the **Morecambe** is **-0.168** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Salford** is **0.181.**

The offensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **0.636** and for the **Salford** is **0.678.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Morecambe** is **-0.604** and for the **Salford** is **-0.198.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Morecambe** and the red line for guest team, **Salford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Morecambe |
30% |
32% |
25% |
13% |

Salford |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Morecambe** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.37 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.37 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.23 |
2.75 |

2-3 goals |
2.41 |
4.30 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.93 |
3.06 |
3.01 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.83 |
2.88 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.23 |
2.75 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.45 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
2.68 |
3.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.93 |
3.06 |
3.01 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.82 |
2.80 |

Goal-Goal |
3.01 |
2.64 |
3.46 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
5.59 |
2.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.36 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
5.59 |
2.52 |

####
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###
Bolton vs Scunthorpe at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bolton** and **Scunthorpe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bolton |
2.02 |
2.44 |
-8.5 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.64 |
-3.2 |

Scunthorpe |
3.88 |
3.16 |
5.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.19 |
-3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.84 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe (5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** at home**.

Bolton,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** as a guest**.

Scunthorpe,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Bolton** is **0.719** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.532.**

The home dynamic for the **Bolton** is **-0.242** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.006.**

The offensive ability for the **Bolton** is **1** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.33.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bolton** is **0.497** and for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.29.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bolton** and the red line for guest team, **Scunthorpe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bolton |
26% |
34% |
25% |
15% |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Bolton ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Scunthorpe** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.40 |
2.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.27 |
4.04 |
3.20 |

4+ goals |
2.58 |
3.17 |
3.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.73 |
3.25 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.40 |
2.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.61 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.63 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.17 |
3.37 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.78 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.63 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
2.14 |
5.90 |
2.76 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.51 |
2.81 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.90 |
2.78 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oldham vs Barrow at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oldham** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **23 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oldham |
2.42 |
2.22 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.64 |
-1.4 |

Barrow |
2.80 |
3.64 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
2.14 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
1.88 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oldham, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** at home**.

Oldham,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 11 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Forest Green |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Salford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Cambridge |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Oldham** is **-0.005** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.683.**

The home dynamic for the **Oldham** is **-0.665** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barrow** is **-0.462.**

The offensive ability for the **Oldham** is **0.609** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.157.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Oldham** is **-1** and for the **Barrow** is **-0.631.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oldham** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oldham |
21% |
40% |
20% |
20% |

Barrow |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oldham** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Oldham ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.37 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.37 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |