2021 02 23 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bradford vs Leyton Orient at 23 February 2021
Morecambe vs Salford at 23 February 2021
Bolton vs Scunthorpe at 23 February 2021
Oldham vs Barrow at 23 February 2021
Harrogate vs Mansfield at 23 February 2021
Grimsby vs Crawley Town at 23 February 2021
Colchester vs Exeter at 23 February 2021
Carlisle vs Tranmere at 23 February 2021
Cambridge vs Cheltenham at 23 February 2021
Port Vale vs Stevenage at 23 February 2021
Walsall vs Newport County at 24 February 2021
Forest Green vs Southend at 24 February 2021


Bradford vs Leyton Orient at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

2.22

2.69

-7.9

Draw

3.34

3.64

-2.5

Leyton Orient

3.24

2.83

4.5

Over 2.5

2.16

2.18

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.69

1.85

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bradford in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Exeter

A

2

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Southend

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Cambridge

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Port Vale

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Crawley Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Morecambe

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Bradford is 0.656 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Bradford is -0.205 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leyton Orient is 0.287.
The offensive ability for the Bradford is 0.664 and for the Leyton Orient is -0.565.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bradford is -0.037 and for the Leyton Orient is 0.226.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

29%

33%

24%

13%

Leyton Orient

29%

36%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.3 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.22 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.50

1

4.98

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.50

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.50

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.18

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.36

2.78

2-3 goals

2.49

4.16

2.79

4+ goals

2.88

3.13

3.00

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.77

2.85

Un 1.5

2.92

3.36

2.78

Ov 2.5

2.27

6.45

2.48

Un 2.5

3.18

2.67

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.88

3.13

3.00

Un 3.5

2.63

3.83

2.78

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.65

3.38

No Goal

2.39

5.87

2.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.38

2.58

NG+Un 2.5

2.49

5.87

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Morecambe vs Salford at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Morecambe

2.81

2.68

1.7

Draw

3.25

3.62

-3.1

Salford

2.54

2.85

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.05

2.24

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.79

1.81

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Morecambe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Barrow

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Bradford

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Stevenage

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Exeter

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G


Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cambridge

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Oldham

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Harrogate

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Newport County

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Jan

Mansfield

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Morecambe is 0.023 and for the Salford is 0.286.
The home dynamic for the Morecambe is -0.168 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salford is 0.181.
The offensive ability for the Morecambe is 0.636 and for the Salford is 0.678.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Morecambe is -0.604 and for the Salford is -0.198.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Morecambe

30%

32%

25%

13%

Salford

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.16 goals and Salford to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.2 goals and Salford to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.37

1

4.88

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.74

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.37

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.06

3.23

2.75

2-3 goals

2.41

4.30

2.83

4+ goals

2.93

3.06

3.01

Ov 1.5

2.55

3.83

2.88

Un 1.5

3.06

3.23

2.75

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.45

2.51

Un 2.5

3.20

2.68

3.18

Ov 3.5

2.93

3.06

3.01

Un 3.5

2.62

3.82

2.80

Goal-Goal

3.01

2.64

3.46

No Goal

2.44

5.59

2.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.30

5.36

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

5.59

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bolton vs Scunthorpe at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bolton

2.02

2.44

-8.5

Draw

3.26

3.64

-3.2

Scunthorpe

3.88

3.16

5.9

Over 2.5

2.05

2.19

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.78

1.84

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bolton in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Southend

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Stevenage

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Leyton Orient

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Tranmere

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Cheltenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Exeter

A

1

1

D

U

G


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 5 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Harrogate

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Colchester

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Port Vale

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bolton is 0.719 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.532.
The home dynamic for the Bolton is -0.242 and the dynamic as a guest for the Scunthorpe is 0.006.
The offensive ability for the Bolton is 1 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.33.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bolton is 0.497 and for the Scunthorpe is 0.29.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bolton

26%

34%

25%

15%

Scunthorpe

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.47 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.28 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.50

1

4.95

2-3

2.03

2

3.91

4+

4.57

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.50

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.40

2.98

2-3 goals

2.27

4.04

3.20

4+ goals

2.58

3.17

3.37

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.73

3.25

Un 1.5

2.70

3.40

2.98

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.61

2.78

Un 2.5

2.93

2.63

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.58

3.17

3.37

Un 3.5

2.41

3.78

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.63

3.72

No Goal

2.14

5.90

2.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.16

5.51

2.81

NG+Un 2.5

2.27

5.90

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Oldham vs Barrow at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oldham

2.42

2.22

3.7

Draw

3.46

3.64

-1.4

Barrow

2.80

3.64

-8.2

Over 2.5

1.83

2.14

-7.9

Under 2.5

1.99

1.88

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham, Under 2.5 (3.7 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Tranmere

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Feb

Forest Green

A

3

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Salford

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Cheltenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Newport County

H

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Mansfield

H

2

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N


Barrow in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 10 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 17.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Morecambe

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Salford

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Cambridge

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bradford

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Scunthorpe

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Southend

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Tranmere

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Port Vale

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Oldham is -0.005 and for the Barrow is -0.683.
The home dynamic for the Oldham is -0.665 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barrow is -0.462.
The offensive ability for the Oldham is 0.609 and for the Barrow is -0.157.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Oldham is -1 and for the Barrow is -0.631.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oldham

21%

40%

20%

20%

Barrow

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.38 goals and Barrow to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.39 goals and Barrow to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Oldham to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.61

1

4.78

2-3

2.02

2

3.92

4+

4.37

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-