Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Nimes vs Lorient at 24 February 2021
Nimes vs Lorient at 24 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 24 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Nimes |
2.69 |
2.28 |
6.7 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.64 |
-1.0 |
|
Lorient |
2.63 |
3.50 |
-9.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.42 |
-10.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.71 |
4.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Nimes in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Monaco |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Angers |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
Lorient in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Lille |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Reims |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Paris SG |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Nimes is 0.068 and for the Lorient is 0.349.
The home dynamic for the Nimes is -0.851 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.532.
The offensive ability for the Nimes is 0.609 and for the Lorient is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nimes is 0.102 and for the Lorient is -0.567.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Nimes |
27% |
32% |
29% |
12% |
|
Lorient |
37% |
36% |
15% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.24 goals and Lorient to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.25 goals and Lorient to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
3.13 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.41 |
|
3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
|
Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |
|
NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.16 |
3.26 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.25 |
4.14 |
|
4+ goals |
3.14 |
3.25 |
2.68 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.92 |
3.61 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.16 |
3.26 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
7.26 |
2.80 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.69 |
4.22 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.14 |
3.25 |
2.68 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.15 |
3.74 |
3.74 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.63 |
3.88 |
|
No Goal |
1.99 |
5.38 |
3.21 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.98 |
2.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.38 |
3.38 |
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