2021 02 23 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Nimes vs Lorient at 24 February 2021


Nimes vs Lorient at 24 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 24 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

2.69

2.28

6.7

Draw

3.51

3.64

-1.0

Lorient

2.63

3.50

-9.5

Over 2.5

1.95

2.42

-10.0

Under 2.5

1.86

1.71

4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Under 2.5 (6.7 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -9.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Monaco

H

3

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Angers

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Marseille

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

5

L

O

N


Lorient in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance as a guest.
Lorient, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Lille

H

1

4

L

O

G

14 Feb

Monaco

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Reims

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Rennes

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Paris SG

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Dijon

H

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Bordeaux

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Monaco

H

2

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Nimes is 0.068 and for the Lorient is 0.349.
The home dynamic for the Nimes is -0.851 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lorient is -0.532.
The offensive ability for the Nimes is 0.609 and for the Lorient is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nimes is 0.102 and for the Lorient is -0.567.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

27%

32%

29%

12%

Lorient

37%

36%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.24 goals and Lorient to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.25 goals and Lorient to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

3.13

1

4.59

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.41

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.13

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.42

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.70

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.16

3.26

2-3 goals

1.91

4.25

4.14

4+ goals

3.14

3.25

2.68

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.92

3.61

Un 1.5

2.66

3.16

3.26

Ov 2.5

1.98

7.26

2.80

Un 2.5

2.55

2.69

4.22

Ov 3.5

3.14

3.25

2.68

Un 3.5

2.15

3.74

3.74

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.63

3.88

No Goal

1.99

5.38

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.98

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.38

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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