Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Leeds vs Southampton at 23 February 2021
Leeds vs Southampton at 23 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leeds |
2.29 |
2.75 |
-7.3 |
|
Draw |
3.66 |
3.61 |
0.4 |
|
Southampton |
2.94 |
2.79 |
1.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.13 |
-14.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
1.89 |
9.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 1.8 %, 9.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
19 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Southampton in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Man United |
A |
0 |
9 |
L |
O |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Leeds is -0.086 and for the Southampton is -0.786.
The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.379 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is 0.509.
The offensive ability for the Leeds is 0.518 and for the Southampton is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -0.497 and for the Southampton is -1.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leeds |
27% |
42% |
13% |
19% |
|
Southampton |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.59 goals and Southampton to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.24 goals and Southampton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.42 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.15 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
4.13 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.13 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.74 |
3.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.37 |
3.25 |
2.53 |
|
4+ goals |
2.35 |
4.32 |
2.92 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.55 |
2.65 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.74 |
3.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
8.39 |
2.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.39 |
3.57 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.35 |
4.32 |
2.92 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.91 |
3.43 |
2.74 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.50 |
2.60 |
3.03 |
|
No Goal |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
6.70 |
2.19 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
6.17 |
2.61 |
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