2021 02 23 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Leeds vs Southampton at 23 February 2021


Leeds vs Southampton at 23 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Leeds and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 23 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leeds

2.29

2.75

-7.3

Draw

3.66

3.61

0.4

Southampton

2.94

2.79

1.8

Over 2.5

1.64

2.13

-14.0

Under 2.5

2.32

1.89

9.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 1.8 %, 9.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Leeds in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leeds in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leeds’s performance at home.
Leeds, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leeds scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leeds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Wolves

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Arsenal

A

2

4

L

O

G

08 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Leicester

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Newcastle

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Brighton

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Tottenham

A

0

3

L

O

N


Southampton in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Leicester

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Leeds is -0.086 and for the Southampton is -0.786.
The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.379 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is 0.509.
The offensive ability for the Leeds is 0.518 and for the Southampton is 0.278.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -0.497 and for the Southampton is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leeds and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leeds

27%

42%

13%

19%

Southampton

29%

34%

21%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.59 goals and Southampton to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.91 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.24 goals and Southampton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.42

1

4.67

2-3

2.15

2

4.22

4+

4.13

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.42

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.13

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.74

3.17

2-3 goals

3.37

3.25

2.53

4+ goals

2.35

4.32

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.93

3.55

2.65

Un 1.5

2.39

3.74

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.32

8.39

2.23

Un 2.5

3.31

2.39

3.57

Ov 3.5

2.35

4.32

2.92

Un 3.5

2.91

3.43

2.74

Goal-Goal

3.50

2.60

3.03

No Goal

2.24

6.17

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

6.70

2.19

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

6.17

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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