2021 02 26 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Werder Bremen vs Ein Frankfurt at 26 February 2021
Dortmund vs Bielefeld at 27 February 2021
RB Leipzig vs M’gladbach at 27 February 2021
Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 at 27 February 2021
Wolfsburg vs Hertha at 27 February 2021
Bayern Munich vs FC Koln at 27 February 2021
Leverkusen vs Freiburg at 28 February 2021
Mainz vs Augsburg at 28 February 2021
Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim at 28 February 2021


Werder Bremen vs Ein Frankfurt at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

4.22

2.76

12.5

Draw

3.86

3.86

0.0

Ein Frankfurt

1.81

2.64

-17.4

Over 2.5

1.72

1.84

-3.8

Under 2.5

2.15

2.19

-0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen (12.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Werder Bremen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Werder Bremen in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Werder Bremen’s performance at home.
Werder Bremen, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Werder Bremen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Werder Bremen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Freiburg

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Schalke 04

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Hertha

A

4

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

M’gladbach

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Augsburg

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Union Berlin

H

0

2

L

U

N


Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance as a guest.
Ein Frankfurt, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ein Frankfurt was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Bayern Munich

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

FC Koln

H

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Hoffenheim

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Hertha

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bielefeld

A

5

1

W

O

G

20 Jan

Freiburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Schalke 04

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Mainz

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Werder Bremen is -0.052 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.867.
The home dynamic for the Werder Bremen is -0.343 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.242.
The offensive ability for the Werder Bremen is -0.227 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Werder Bremen is -0.356 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.552.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, Ein Frankfurt.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

27%

35%

17%

22%

Ein Frankfurt

27%

31%

23%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 0.97 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.33 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.36 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.08

1

5.75

2-3

2.21

2

4.74

4+

3.32

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.75

Un 1.5

4.08

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

22.73

Un 2.5

2.19

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.32

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.45

2.99

2-3 goals

2.96

4.27

2.34

4+ goals

2.57

3.67

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.79

4.01

2.55

Un 1.5

2.66

3.45

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.40

6.62

2.31

Un 2.5

3.35

2.58

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.57

3.67

2.95

Un 3.5

2.85

3.94

2.53

Goal-Goal

3.20

2.86

2.97

No Goal

2.38

6.51

2.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.57

5.26

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.57

6.51

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dortmund vs Bielefeld at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dortmund and Bielefeld for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dortmund

1.20

1.61

-21.2

Draw

6.96

4.57

7.5

Bielefeld

14.87

6.25

9.3

Over 2.5

1.42

1.70

-11.6

Under 2.5

2.83

2.42

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bielefeld, Under 2.5 (7.5 %, 9.3 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dortmund in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance at home.
Dortmund, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Schalke 04

A

4

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Hoffenheim

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Augsburg

H

3

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

M’gladbach

A

2

4

L

O

G

19 Jan

Leverkusen

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Mainz

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

RB Leipzig

A

3

1

W

O

G


Bielefeld in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance as a guest.
Bielefeld, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bielefeld was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Wolfsburg

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Feb

Bayern Munich

A

3

3

D

O

G

31 Jan

FC Koln

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

H

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Stuttgart

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Hoffenheim

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Jan

Hertha

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

M’gladbach

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Dortmund is -0.096 and for the Bielefeld is -0.385.
The home dynamic for the Dortmund is 0.206 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bielefeld is -0.357.
The offensive ability for the Dortmund is 1 and for the Bielefeld is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dortmund is -0.607 and for the Bielefeld is -0.309.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Bielefeld.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dortmund

12%

26%

27%

34%

Bielefeld

36%

40%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 2.9 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.34 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 2.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.83 goals and Bielefeld to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.88 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.26

1

6.90

2-3

1.97

2

4.48

4+

3.31

3

3.51

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

4.95

Un 1.5

5.26

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.70

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.42

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.26

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.22

3.80

2-3 goals

1.54

4.84

6.96

4+ goals

1.54

4.38

8.16

Ov 1.5

1.54

4.66

7.36

Un 1.5

2.00

4.22

3.80

Ov 2.5

1.37

8.51

6.60

Un 2.5

2.15

2.75

5.82

Ov 3.5

1.54

4.38

8.16

Un 3.5

1.64

4.65

5.67

Goal-Goal

1.84

3.21

6.98

No Goal

1.39

9.82

5.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.49

6.57

5.66

NG+Un 2.5

1.60

9.82

4.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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RB Leipzig vs M’gladbach at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and M’gladbach for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

RB Leipzig

1.71

1.81

-3.2

Draw

4.08

4.22

-0.8

M’gladbach

4.78

4.78

0.0

Over 2.5

1.70

1.77

-2.3

Under 2.5

2.18

2.30

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance at home.
RB Leipzig, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 84.8% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Hertha

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

Augsburg

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Schalke 04

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Leverkusen

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Mainz

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Jan

Union Berlin

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Wolfsburg

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Jan

Dortmund

H

1

3

L

O

G


M’gladbach in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance as a guest.
M’gladbach, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Mainz

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Wolfsburg

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Union Berlin

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Dortmund

H

4

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Werder Bremen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stuttgart

A

2

2

D

O

G

08 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the RB Leipzig is 0.704 and for the M’gladbach is -0.089.
The home dynamic for the RB Leipzig is 0.676 and the dynamic as a guest for the M’gladbach is 0.26.
The offensive ability for the RB Leipzig is 1 and for the M’gladbach is 0.559.
Finally, the defensive ability for the RB Leipzig is 0.333 and for the M’gladbach is -0.22.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, RB Leipzig and the red line for guest team, M’gladbach.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

RB Leipzig

16%

29%

24%

31%

M’gladbach

35%

37%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 1.91 goals and M’gladbach to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 1.7 goals and M’gladbach to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.18

0-1

4.65

1

6.25

2-3

2.06

2

4.55

4+

3.34

3

3.76

Ov 1.5

1.27

4

5.32

Un 1.5

4.65

5

12.35

Ov 2.5

1.77

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

2.30

Gg

1.82

Ov 3.5

3.34

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.11

3.91

3.71

2-3 goals

1.74

4.50

4.91

4+ goals

1.73

4.04

5.75

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.31

5.20

Un 1.5

2.11

3.91

3.71

Ov 2.5

1.53

7.64

4.63

Un 2.5

2.35

2.67

5.00

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.04

5.75

Un 3.5

1.84

4.30

4.46

Goal-Goal

2.11

3.02

5.14

No Goal

1.54

8.18

4.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.69

5.97

4.13

NG+Un 2.5

1.77

8.18

3.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Schalke 04 for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stuttgart

1.51

1.63

-4.9

Draw

4.61

4.55

0.3

Schalke 04

6.20

6.02

0.5

Over 2.5

1.63

1.68

-1.8

Under 2.5

2.36

2.48

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Schalke 04 (0.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stuttgart in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

FC Koln

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Hertha

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Leverkusen

A

2

5

L

O

G

29 Jan

Mainz

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Freiburg

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Bielefeld

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

M’gladbach

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Augsburg

A

4

1

W

O

G


Schalke 04 in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Schalke 04 in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Schalke 04’s performance as a guest.
Schalke 04, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Schalke 04 scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Schalke 04 was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Dortmund

H

0

4

L

O

N

13 Feb

Union Berlin

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

RB Leipzig

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Werder Bremen

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Bayern Munich

H

0

4

L

O

N

20 Jan

FC Koln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Ein Frankfurt

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hoffenheim

H

4

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Stuttgart is -0.096 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.652.
The home dynamic for the Stuttgart is -0.294 and the dynamic as a guest for the Schalke 04 is -0.648.
The offensive ability for the Stuttgart is 0.682 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stuttgart is -0.281 and for the Schalke 04 is -0.552.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Schalke 04.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stuttgart

13%

27%

23%

37%

Schalke 04

35%

40%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 2.18 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 1.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.85 goals and Schalke 04 to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.89 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

21.74

0-1

5.18

1

6.80

2-3

2.04

2

4.74

4+

3.14

3

3.57

Ov 1.5

1.24

4

4.76

Un 1.5

5.18

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

1.67

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

2.48

Gg

1.78

Ov 3.5

3.14

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.46

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.