2021 02 26 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Derby vs Nott’m Forest at 26 February 2021
Swansea vs Bristol City at 27 February 2021
Rotherham vs Reading at 27 February 2021
Preston vs Huddersfield at 27 February 2021
Barnsley vs Millwall at 27 February 2021
Luton vs Sheffield Weds at 27 February 2021
Brentford vs Stoke at 27 February 2021
Bournemouth vs Watford at 27 February 2021
Blackburn vs Coventry at 27 February 2021
Birmingham vs QPR at 27 February 2021
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff at 27 February 2021
Wycombe vs Norwich at 28 February 2021


Derby vs Nott’m Forest at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Derby and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Derby

2.48

2.14

6.4

Draw

3.12

3.56

-4.0

Nott’m Forest

3.01

3.98

-8.1

Over 2.5

2.42

2.30

2.2

Under 2.5

1.58

1.77

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Derby, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Derby in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance at home.
Derby, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Feb

Watford

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Wycombe

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Rotherham

A

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N


Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance as a guest.
Nott’m Forest, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Rotherham

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackburn

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Swansea

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Bournemouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Wycombe

A

3

0

W

O

N

02 Feb

Coventry

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Barnsley

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Derby is 0.333 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.496.
The home dynamic for the Derby is -0.471 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nott’m Forest is -0.313.
The offensive ability for the Derby is 0.657 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Derby is -0.333 and for the Nott’m Forest is 0.677.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Derby and the red line for guest team, Nott’m Forest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Derby

25%

36%

17%

22%

Nott’m Forest

38%

40%

10%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Derby to score 1.14 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Derby to score 1.37 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Derby to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.03

1

4.24

2-3

2.20

2

4.24

4+

4.61

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.03

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.51

3.30

2-3 goals

2.07

3.14

5.06

4+ goals

1.92

5.05

3.56

Ov 1.5

2.02

3.57

4.45

Un 1.5

2.43

3.51

3.30

Ov 2.5

1.63

10.14

3.46

Un 2.5

2.80

2.37

4.53

Ov 3.5

1.92

5.05

3.56

Un 3.5

2.21

3.28

4.13

Goal-Goal

2.56

2.49

4.79

No Goal

1.86

5.67

3.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

7.53

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.67

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swansea vs Bristol City at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

1.80

1.74

1.9

Draw

3.45

4.15

-4.9

Bristol City

4.82

5.46

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.17

2.01

3.7

Under 2.5

1.71

1.99

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 10 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Huddersfield

A

1

4

L

O

G

17 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Norwich

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Barnsley

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Watford

H

2

1

W

O

G


Bristol City in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Barnsley

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Reading

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Watford

A

0

6

L

O

N

06 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

Brentford

A

2

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Derby

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Swansea is 0.496 and for the Bristol City is -0.607.
The home dynamic for the Swansea is 0.324 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bristol City is 0.339.
The offensive ability for the Swansea is 1 and for the Bristol City is -0.586.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swansea is 0.059 and for the Bristol City is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

16%

29%

30%

24%

Bristol City

39%

41%

13%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.54 goals and Bristol City to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.62 goals and Bristol City to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.12

1

5.56

2-3

1.90

2

3.86

4+

4.33

3

3.73

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.29

Un 1.5

4.12

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.33

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.13

3.86

3.68

2-3 goals

1.57

4.39

7.32

4+ goals

1.80

3.98

5.13

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.26

6.48

Un 1.5

2.13

3.86

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.45

8.60

5.20

Un 2.5

2.16

2.74

5.77

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.98

5.13

Un 3.5

1.71

4.21

5.58

Goal-Goal

2.04

2.89

6.12

No Goal

1.50

7.73

4.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

6.79

4.69

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

7.73

4.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rotherham vs Reading at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.80

2.62

2.5

Draw

3.25

3.62

-3.1

Reading

2.57

2.92

-4.7

Over 2.5

2.16

2.20

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.71

1.83

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Feb

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Cardiff

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Swansea

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

3

0

W

O

N


Reading in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Wycombe

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Feb

Brentford

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Stoke

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Jan

Bournemouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Preston

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Rotherham is -0.43 and for the Reading is -0.519.
The home dynamic for the Rotherham is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is 0.145.
The offensive ability for the Rotherham is -0.288 and for the Reading is -0.233.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rotherham is -0.726 and for the Reading is -0.256.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

27%

38%

20%

15%

Reading

31%

34%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.12 goals and Reading to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.23 goals and Reading to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.39

1

4.76

2-3

2.07

2

4.00

4+

4.52

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.39

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.47

3.21

2-3 goals

2.73

3.77

2.71

4+ goals

2.57

3.51

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.69

2.82

Un 1.5

2.50

3.47

3.21

Ov 2.5

2.26

7.21

2.39

Un 2.5

3.03

2.56

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.57

3.51

3.07

Un 3.5

2.64

3.65

2.88

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.62

3.21

No Goal

2.19

5.87

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.43

5.90

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

5.87

2.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Preston vs Huddersfield at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

2.39

2.23

3.0

Draw

3.30

3.75

-3.6

Huddersfield

3.02

3.51

-4.6

Over 2.5

2.12

2.11

0.2

Under 2.5

1.74

1.90

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston, Over 2.5 (3 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

QPR

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Cardiff

A

0

4

L

O

N

16 Feb

Watford

H

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N


Huddersfield in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Derby

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Swansea

H

4

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Preston is -0.481 and for the Huddersfield is -0.348.
The home dynamic for the Preston is -0.343 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.057.
The offensive ability for the Preston is -0.605 and for the Huddersfield is 0.533.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Preston is -0.607 and for the Huddersfield is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

24%

34%

23%

19%

Huddersfield

34%

35%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 1.27 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.38 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Preston to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.57

1

5.03

2-3

2.06

2

4.07

4+

4.27

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.57

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.27

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-