# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Derby vs Nott’m Forest at 26 February 2021**** Swansea vs Bristol City at 27 February 2021**** Rotherham vs Reading at 27 February 2021**** Preston vs Huddersfield at 27 February 2021**** Barnsley vs Millwall at 27 February 2021**** Luton vs Sheffield Weds at 27 February 2021**** Brentford vs Stoke at 27 February 2021**** Bournemouth vs Watford at 27 February 2021**** Blackburn vs Coventry at 27 February 2021**** Birmingham vs QPR at 27 February 2021**** Middlesbrough vs Cardiff at 27 February 2021**** Wycombe vs Norwich at 28 February 2021**

###
Derby vs Nott’m Forest at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Derby** and **Nott’m Forest** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Derby |
2.48 |
2.14 |
6.4 |

Draw |
3.12 |
3.56 |
-4.0 |

Nott’m Forest |
3.01 |
3.98 |
-8.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.30 |
2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.77 |
-6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Derby, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 2.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** at home**.

Derby,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 14 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 12 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Feb |
Watford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Nott’m Forest** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nott’m Forest** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance** as a guest**.

Nott’m Forest,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Derby** is **0.333** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Derby** is **-0.471** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nott’m Forest** is **-0.313.**

The offensive ability for the **Derby** is **0.657** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Derby** is **-0.333** and for the **Nott’m Forest** is **0.677.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Derby** and the red line for guest team, **Nott’m Forest. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Derby |
25% |
36% |
17% |
22% |

Nott’m Forest |
38% |
40% |
10% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Nott’m Forest** to score **1 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Derby** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Nott’m Forest** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Derby ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.03 |

1 |
4.24 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.03 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.51 |
3.30 |

2-3 goals |
2.07 |
3.14 |
5.06 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
5.05 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
3.57 |
4.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.51 |
3.30 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
10.14 |
3.46 |

Un 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.37 |
4.53 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
5.05 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.28 |
4.13 |

Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.49 |
4.79 |

No Goal |
1.86 |
5.67 |
3.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.53 |
3.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.67 |
3.37 |

####
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###
Swansea vs Bristol City at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Bristol City** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
1.80 |
1.74 |
1.9 |

Draw |
3.45 |
4.15 |
-4.9 |

Bristol City |
4.82 |
5.46 |
-2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.01 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.99 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swansea, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 10 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 72.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 13 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Norwich |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Watford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bristol City** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol City** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol City,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol City scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Watford |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Derby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Swansea** is **0.496** and for the **Bristol City** is **-0.607.**

The home dynamic for the **Swansea** is **0.324** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bristol City** is **0.339.**

The offensive ability for the **Swansea** is **1** and for the **Bristol City** is **-0.586.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swansea** is **0.059** and for the **Bristol City** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
16% |
29% |
30% |
24% |

Bristol City |
39% |
41% |
13% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Bristol City** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
1.90 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.33 |

3 |
3.73 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.33 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.13 |
3.86 |
3.68 |

2-3 goals |
1.57 |
4.39 |
7.32 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
3.98 |
5.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.64 |
4.26 |
6.48 |

Un 1.5 |
2.13 |
3.86 |
3.68 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
8.60 |
5.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.74 |
5.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
3.98 |
5.13 |

Un 3.5 |
1.71 |
4.21 |
5.58 |

Goal-Goal |
2.04 |
2.89 |
6.12 |

No Goal |
1.50 |
7.73 |
4.92 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
6.79 |
4.69 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.73 |
4.39 |

####
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###
Rotherham vs Reading at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rotherham** and **Reading** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rotherham |
2.80 |
2.62 |
2.5 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.62 |
-3.1 |

Reading |
2.57 |
2.92 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.20 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.83 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rotherham (2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** at home**.

Rotherham,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Cardiff |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Preston |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Derby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Reading** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reading** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance** as a guest**.

Reading,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Reading scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Wycombe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol City |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Preston |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Rotherham** is **-0.43** and for the **Reading** is **-0.519.**

The home dynamic for the **Rotherham** is **-0.108** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Reading** is **0.145.**

The offensive ability for the **Rotherham** is **-0.288** and for the **Reading** is **-0.233.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rotherham** is **-0.726** and for the **Reading** is **-0.256.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rotherham** and the red line for guest team, **Reading. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rotherham |
27% |
38% |
20% |
15% |

Reading |
31% |
34% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rotherham** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Reading** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.39 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.39 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.47 |
3.21 |

2-3 goals |
2.73 |
3.77 |
2.71 |

4+ goals |
2.57 |
3.51 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.69 |
2.82 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.47 |
3.21 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
7.21 |
2.39 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.56 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.51 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.65 |
2.88 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.62 |
3.21 |

No Goal |
2.19 |
5.87 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.90 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
5.87 |
2.74 |

####
Go to Top

###
Preston vs Huddersfield at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Preston** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Preston |
2.39 |
2.23 |
3.0 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.75 |
-3.6 |

Huddersfield |
3.02 |
3.51 |
-4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.11 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.90 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston, Over 2.5 (3 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** at home**.

Preston,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 31.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 13 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
QPR |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cardiff |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Watford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Swansea |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Preston** is **-0.481** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.348.**

The home dynamic for the **Preston** is **-0.343** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.057.**

The offensive ability for the **Preston** is **-0.605** and for the **Huddersfield** is **0.533.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Preston** is **-0.607** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Preston** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Preston |
24% |
34% |
23% |
19% |

Huddersfield |
34% |
35% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Preston ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.27 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.27 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |