2021 02 26 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bromley vs Altrincham at 27 February 2021
Yeovil vs Dag and Red at 27 February 2021
Wrexham vs Wealdstone at 27 February 2021
Hartlepool vs Barnet at 27 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Solihull at 27 February 2021
Stockport vs Chesterfield at 27 February 2021


Bromley vs Altrincham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.24

2.38

-2.6

Draw

3.51

3.76

-1.9

Altrincham

2.99

3.17

-1.9

Over 2.5

1.81

2.01

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.99

1.99

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

Maidenhead

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Feb

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Aldershot

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Woking

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G


Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 48.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Yeovil

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Torquay

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Wealdstone

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Barnet

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Sutton

A

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Bromley is -0.022 and for the Altrincham is -0.43.
The home dynamic for the Bromley is -0.48 and the dynamic as a guest for the Altrincham is 0.339.
The offensive ability for the Bromley is 0.597 and for the Altrincham is 0.119.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bromley is -0.407 and for the Altrincham is -0.668.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bromley

25%

32%

24%

19%

Altrincham

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.46 goals and Altrincham to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.37 goals and Altrincham to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.83

1

5.41

2-3

2.06

2

4.13

4+

3.95

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.43

2.93

2-3 goals

2.26

4.30

3.08

4+ goals

2.36

3.29

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.30

3.89

3.26

Un 1.5

2.72

3.43

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.00

6.45

2.91

Un 2.5

2.98

2.66

3.47

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.29

3.67

Un 3.5

2.40

3.95

3.02

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.75

3.74

No Goal

2.12

6.28

2.71

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

5.32

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

6.28

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Yeovil vs Dag and Red at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

2.20

2.27

-1.4

Draw

3.41

3.82

-3.1

Dag and Red

3.08

3.36

-2.7

Over 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.88

2.00

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Weymouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Hartlepool

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Boreham Wood

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Altrincham

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Eastleigh

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Stockport

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Maidenhead

A

2

4

L

O

G


Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Sutton

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Feb

Bromley

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Notts County

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Wrexham

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Chesterfield

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Eastleigh

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Yeovil is 0.059 and for the Dag and Red is -0.319.
The home dynamic for the Yeovil is -0.206 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dag and Red is 0.093.
The offensive ability for the Yeovil is 0.339 and for the Dag and Red is 0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Yeovil is -0.681 and for the Dag and Red is -0.552.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

24%

31%

25%

20%

Dag and Red

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.41 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.4 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.83

1

5.43

2-3

2.06

2

4.17

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

3.39

2.97

2-3 goals

2.13

4.41

3.30

4+ goals

2.21

3.34

4.03

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.97

3.52

Un 1.5

2.72

3.39

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.88

6.57

3.18

Un 2.5

2.90

2.68

3.55

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.34

4.03

Un 3.5

2.30

3.99

3.17

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.78

4.02

No Goal

2.04

6.26

2.85

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.37

3.16

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.26

2.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Wealdstone at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

1.66

1.80

-4.7

Draw

3.72

4.20

-3.1

Wealdstone

4.84

4.83

0.0

Over 2.5

1.89

1.94

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.91

2.07

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Hartlepool

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Feb

Woking

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Dag and Red

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N


Wealdstone in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Sutton

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Feb

Torquay

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aldershot

H

3

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Maidenhead

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.148 and for the Wealdstone is -0.63.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wealdstone is -0.137.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.116 and for the Wealdstone is 0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.259 and for the Wealdstone is -0.525.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

21%

25%

27%

28%

Wealdstone

39%

37%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.74 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.61 goals and Wealdstone to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.95

1

5.78

2-3

2.02

2

4.31

4+

3.95

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.99

Un 1.5

3.95

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.16

3.29

2-3 goals

1.61

5.32

5.27

4+ goals

1.69

3.83

6.84

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.70

5.71

Un 1.5

2.64

3.16

3.29

Ov 2.5

1.45

7.82

5.43

Un 2.5

2.44

2.80

4.29

Ov 3.5

1.69

3.83

6.84

Un 3.5

1.85

4.32

4.37

Goal-Goal

1.96

3.07

6.10

No Goal

1.68

6.41

4.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

5.98

4.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.41

3.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Hartlepool vs Barnet at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

1.39

1.81

-16.7

Draw

4.54

4.24

1.6

Barnet

7.01

4.76

6.7

Over 2.5

1.74

1.96

-6.5

Under 2.5

2.06

2.04

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Barnet, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 6.7 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Yeovil

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N


Barnet in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

King’s Lynn

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Feb

Woking

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Aldershot

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Torquay

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Altrincham

H

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Hartlepool is 0.185 and for the Barnet is -0.652.
The home dynamic for the Hartlepool is 0.088 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barnet is -0.683.
The offensive ability for the Hartlepool is 0.227 and for the Barnet is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Hartlepool is 0.015 and for the Barnet is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

23%

22%

27%

28%

Barnet

39%

37%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 2.08 goals and Barnet to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.6 goals and Barnet to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Hartlepool to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.80

1

5.81

2-3

2.04

2

4.41

4+

4.03

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.80

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

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