2021 02 26 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zwolle vs Heerenveen at 26 February 2021
Vitesse vs VVV Venlo at 27 February 2021
Den Haag vs Waalwijk at 27 February 2021
Heracles vs Twente at 27 February 2021
Utrecht vs FC Emmen at 27 February 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax at 28 February 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II at 28 February 2021
Groningen vs For Sittard at 28 February 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord at 28 February 2021


Zwolle vs Heerenveen at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

2.47

2.39

1.4

Draw

3.41

3.95

-4.0

Heerenveen

2.77

3.06

-3.4

Over 2.5

1.83

1.63

6.7

Under 2.5

2.02

2.59

-10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

FC Emmen

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Groningen

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Utrecht

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Jan

Heracles

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Jan

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

For Sittard

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N


Heerenveen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance as a guest.
Heerenveen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Groningen

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Vitesse

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Twente

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Feyenoord

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Zwolle is -0.244 and for the Heerenveen is 0.
The home dynamic for the Zwolle is -0.196 and the dynamic as a guest for the Heerenveen is 0.066.
The offensive ability for the Zwolle is 0.571 and for the Heerenveen is 0.295.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Zwolle is -1 and for the Heerenveen is 0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Heerenveen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

20%

29%

24%

27%

Heerenveen

23%

33%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.38 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.57 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

21.28

0-1

5.46

1

7.35

2-3

2.20

2

4.93

4+

2.75

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.93

Un 1.5

5.46

5

9.09

Ov 2.5

1.63

6+

20.00

Un 2.5

2.59

Gg

1.63

Ov 3.5

2.75

NoG

2.58

Un 3.5

1.57

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.89

2.69

2-3 goals

2.32

4.64

2.83

4+ goals

2.34

3.33

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.95

3.15

Un 1.5

2.69

3.89

2.69

Ov 2.5

2.08

5.64

2.93

Un 2.5

3.14

2.66

3.27

Ov 3.5

2.34

3.33

3.67

Un 3.5

2.42

4.40

2.79

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.96

3.56

No Goal

2.10

8.26

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

4.72

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

8.26

2.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Vitesse vs VVV Venlo at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Vitesse and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Vitesse

1.45

1.90

-16.3

Draw

4.62

4.03

3.2

VVV Venlo

6.49

4.41

7.3

Over 2.5

1.59

2.01

-13.1

Under 2.5

2.38

1.99

8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 7.3 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Vitesse in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance at home.
Vitesse, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Twente

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Heerenveen

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

VVV Venlo

A

1

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

Groningen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

FC Emmen

A

4

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Utrecht

H

1

0

W

U

N


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

4

L

O

G

14 Feb

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

For Sittard

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Vitesse

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Twente

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Jan

Den Haag

A

4

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Willem II

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Vitesse is -0.57 and for the VVV Venlo is -0.244.
The home dynamic for the Vitesse is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the VVV Venlo is -0.251.
The offensive ability for the Vitesse is 0.167 and for the VVV Venlo is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Vitesse is -0.726 and for the VVV Venlo is -0.641.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Vitesse and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Vitesse

22%

26%

28%

24%

VVV Venlo

36%

40%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Vitesse to score 2.24 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 1.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Vitesse to score 1.53 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Vitesse to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.80

1

5.49

2-3

2.01

2

4.17

4+

4.17

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.80

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.25

2.99

2-3 goals

1.67

4.88

5.08

4+ goals

1.80

3.69

5.71

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.42

5.27

Un 1.5

2.80

3.25

2.99

Ov 2.5

1.51

7.66

4.83

Un 2.5

2.58

2.75

4.02

Ov 3.5

1.80

3.69

5.71

Un 3.5

1.94

4.16

4.09

Goal-Goal

2.03

2.97

5.84

No Goal

1.80

6.23

3.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

6.06

4.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.23

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Den Haag vs Waalwijk at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Den Haag

3.41

2.53

10.2

Draw

3.51

3.91

-2.9

Waalwijk

2.07

2.87

-13.5

Over 2.5

1.97

1.65

9.8

Under 2.5

1.87

2.54

-14.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Over 2.5 (10.2 %, 9.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Den Haag in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Willem II

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Feb

For Sittard

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Groningen

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

1

4

L

O

G


Waalwijk in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

12 Feb

FC Emmen

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Den Haag is -0.333 and for the Waalwijk is 0.096.
The home dynamic for the Den Haag is -0.843 and the dynamic as a guest for the Waalwijk is -0.225.
The offensive ability for the Den Haag is -0.09 and for the Waalwijk is 0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Den Haag is -0.726 and for the Waalwijk is -0.076.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Den Haag

22%

29%

24%

24%

Waalwijk

21%

36%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.02 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Waalwijk to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.51 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.43

1

7.19

2-3

2.16

2

4.76

4+

2.82

3

3.97

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

4.95

Un 1.5

5.43

5

9.43

Ov 2.5

1.65

6+

21.74

Un 2.5

2.54

Gg

1.62

Ov 3.5

2.82

NoG

2.62

Un 3.5

1.55

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.02

4.09

2.36

2-3 goals

2.47

4.40

2.72

4+ goals

2.39

3.34

3.54

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.87

3.02

Un 1.5

3.02

4.09

2.36

Ov 2.5

2.13

5.72

2.82

Un 2.5

3.55

2.63

2.96

Ov 3.5

2.39

3.34

3.54

Un 3.5

2.60

4.31

2.60

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.93

3.56

No Goal

2.35

8.47

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

4.85

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

8.47

2.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Heracles vs Twente at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

2.57

2.49

1.3

Draw

3.38

3.92

-4.1

Twente

2.65

2.92

-3.5

Over 2.5

1.90

1.62

9.1

Under 2.5

1.94

2.60

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 9.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance at home.
Heracles, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Waalwijk

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Ajax

H

0

2

L

U

N

05 Feb

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Groningen

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Jan

FC Emmen

H

4

0

W

O

N


Twente in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Feb

Vitesse

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Groningen

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Jan

Ajax

H

1

3

L

O

G


The form score for the Heracles is 0.089 and for the Twente is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Heracles is -0.049 and the dynamic as a guest for the Twente is 0.595.
The offensive ability for the Heracles is 0.116 and for the Twente is -0.471.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Heracles is -0.059 and for the Twente is 0.193.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

21%

30%

23%

26%

Twente

21%

34%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.29 goals and Twente to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.54 goals and Twente to score 1.43 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

22.22

0-1

5.56

1

7.41

2-3

2.20

2

4.90

4+

2.73

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

4.88

Un 1.5

5.56

5

9.01

Ov 2.5

1.62

6+

20.00

Un 2.5

2.60

Gg

1.61

Ov 3.5