# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Zwolle vs Heerenveen at 26 February 2021**** Vitesse vs VVV Venlo at 27 February 2021**** Den Haag vs Waalwijk at 27 February 2021**** Heracles vs Twente at 27 February 2021**** Utrecht vs FC Emmen at 27 February 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax at 28 February 2021**** Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II at 28 February 2021**** Groningen vs For Sittard at 28 February 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord at 28 February 2021**

###
Zwolle vs Heerenveen at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Heerenveen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
2.47 |
2.39 |
1.4 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.95 |
-4.0 |

Heerenveen |
2.77 |
3.06 |
-3.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.83 |
1.63 |
6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.59 |
-10.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle, Over 2.5 (1.4 %, 6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** as a guest**.

Heerenveen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Twente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Feyenoord |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Zwolle** is **-0.244** and for the **Heerenveen** is **0.**

The home dynamic for the **Zwolle** is **-0.196** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Heerenveen** is **0.066.**

The offensive ability for the **Zwolle** is **0.571** and for the **Heerenveen** is **0.295.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Zwolle** is **-1** and for the **Heerenveen** is **0.166.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Heerenveen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
20% |
29% |
24% |
27% |

Heerenveen |
23% |
33% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.57 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.96** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
21.28 |
0-1 |
5.46 |

1 |
7.35 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
2.75 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.93 |
Un 1.5 |
5.46 |

5 |
9.09 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |

6+ |
20.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |

Gg |
1.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.75 |

NoG |
2.58 |
Un 3.5 |
1.57 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.89 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.32 |
4.64 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.34 |
3.33 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.33 |
3.95 |
3.15 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.89 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.64 |
2.93 |

Un 2.5 |
3.14 |
2.66 |
3.27 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.33 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
4.40 |
2.79 |

Goal-Goal |
2.62 |
2.96 |
3.56 |

No Goal |
2.10 |
8.26 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
4.72 |
2.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
8.26 |
2.44 |

####
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###
Vitesse vs VVV Venlo at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Vitesse** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Vitesse |
1.45 |
1.90 |
-16.3 |

Draw |
4.62 |
4.03 |
3.2 |

VVV Venlo |
6.49 |
4.41 |
7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.01 |
-13.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.38 |
1.99 |
8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 7.3 %, 8.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** at home**.

Vitesse,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Twente |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Twente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Vitesse** is **-0.57** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.244.**

The home dynamic for the **Vitesse** is **1** and the dynamic as a guest for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Vitesse** is **0.167** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Vitesse** is **-0.726** and for the **VVV Venlo** is **-0.641.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Vitesse** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Vitesse |
22% |
26% |
28% |
24% |

VVV Venlo |
36% |
40% |
16% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **2.24 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.98** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **1.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Vitesse** to score **1.53 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Vitesse ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.17 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.80 |
3.25 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
1.67 |
4.88 |
5.08 |

4+ goals |
1.80 |
3.69 |
5.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.42 |
5.27 |

Un 1.5 |
2.80 |
3.25 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
7.66 |
4.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.75 |
4.02 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.80 |
3.69 |
5.71 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
4.16 |
4.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.03 |
2.97 |
5.84 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.23 |
3.53 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
6.06 |
4.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.23 |
3.21 |

####
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###
Den Haag vs Waalwijk at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Den Haag** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Den Haag |
3.41 |
2.53 |
10.2 |

Draw |
3.51 |
3.91 |
-2.9 |

Waalwijk |
2.07 |
2.87 |
-13.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
1.65 |
9.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.54 |
-14.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Den Haag, Over 2.5 (10.2 %, 9.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** at home**.

Den Haag,** at home**, had no wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 15.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Willem II |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Feb |
FC Emmen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Den Haag** is **-0.333** and for the **Waalwijk** is **0.096.**

The home dynamic for the **Den Haag** is **-0.843** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.225.**

The offensive ability for the **Den Haag** is **-0.09** and for the **Waalwijk** is **0.674.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Den Haag** is **-0.726** and for the **Waalwijk** is **-0.076.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Den Haag** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Den Haag |
22% |
29% |
24% |
24% |

Waalwijk |
21% |
36% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Waalwijk ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
5.43 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.16 |

2 |
4.76 |
4+ |
2.82 |

3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
4.95 |
Un 1.5 |
5.43 |

5 |
9.43 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |

6+ |
21.74 |
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |

Gg |
1.62 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |

NoG |
2.62 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.02 |
4.09 |
2.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
4.40 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
2.39 |
3.34 |
3.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.87 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
3.02 |
4.09 |
2.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.72 |
2.82 |

Un 2.5 |
3.55 |
2.63 |
2.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.39 |
3.34 |
3.54 |

Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
4.31 |
2.60 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.93 |
3.56 |

No Goal |
2.35 |
8.47 |
2.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
4.85 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
8.47 |
2.17 |

####
Go to Top

###
Heracles vs Twente at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Heracles** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Heracles |
2.57 |
2.49 |
1.3 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.92 |
-4.1 |

Twente |
2.65 |
2.92 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.62 |
9.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.60 |
-13.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Heracles, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 9.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** at home**.

Heracles,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Waalwijk |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Vitesse |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Heracles** is **0.089** and for the **Twente** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Heracles** is **-0.049** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Twente** is **0.595.**

The offensive ability for the **Heracles** is **0.116** and for the **Twente** is **-0.471.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Heracles** is **-0.059** and for the **Twente** is **0.193.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Heracles** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Heracles |
21% |
30% |
23% |
26% |

Twente |
21% |
34% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Heracles** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.97** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.22 |
0-1 |
5.56 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.90 |
4+ |
2.73 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |

4 |
4.88 |
Un 1.5 |
5.56 |

5 |
9.01 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |

6+ |
20.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.60 |

Gg |
1.61 |
Ov 3.5 |