# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Real Madrid vs Sociedad at 01 March 2021**** Levante vs Ath Bilbao at 26 February 2021**** Sevilla vs Barcelona at 27 February 2021**** Eibar vs Huesca at 27 February 2021**** Alaves vs Osasuna at 27 February 2021**** Getafe vs Valencia at 27 February 2021**** Celta vs Valladolid at 28 February 2021**** Villarreal vs Ath Madrid at 28 February 2021**** Cadiz vs Betis at 28 February 2021**** Granada vs Elche at 28 February 2021**

###
Real Madrid vs Sociedad at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Real Madrid** and **Sociedad** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Real Madrid |
1.91 |
2.15 |
-5.8 |

Draw |
3.74 |
3.82 |
-0.6 |

Sociedad |
4.12 |
3.66 |
3.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.99 |
-3.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.01 |
-0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sociedad (3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Real Madrid** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Real Madrid** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance** at home**.

Real Madrid,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Valladolid |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Huesca |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Levante |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Sociedad** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sociedad** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance** as a guest**.

Sociedad,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Sociedad scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Cadiz |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Betis |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Sevilla |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Osasuna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Real Madrid** is **0.704** and for the **Sociedad** is **0.422.**

The home dynamic for the **Real Madrid** is **0.343** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sociedad** is **0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Real Madrid** is **1** and for the **Sociedad** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Real Madrid** is **0.111** and for the **Sociedad** is **-0.076.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Real Madrid** and the red line for guest team, **Sociedad. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Real Madrid |
22% |
32% |
25% |
21% |

Sociedad |
32% |
38% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.67 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and the home team **Real Madrid ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Real Madrid** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Sociedad** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Real Madrid ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.51 |
3.61 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
2.03 |
4.09 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
2.10 |
3.53 |
4.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.88 |
3.92 |

Un 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.61 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.97 |
3.41 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.61 |
3.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.10 |
3.53 |
4.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.91 |
3.52 |

Goal-Goal |
2.47 |
2.76 |
4.31 |

No Goal |
1.88 |
6.63 |
3.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.69 |
3.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.63 |
3.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Levante vs Ath Bilbao at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Levante** and **Ath Bilbao** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Levante |
3.17 |
2.51 |
8.3 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.89 |
-5.6 |

Ath Bilbao |
2.42 |
2.90 |
-6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.91 |
4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.10 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Levante, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 4.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Levante** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Levante** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance** at home**.

Levante,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Levante scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Ath Bilbao** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ath Bilbao** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance** as a guest**.

Ath Bilbao,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Villarreal |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Feb |
Cadiz |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Valencia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Elche |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Dec |
Sociedad |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Levante** is **0.17** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Levante** is **0.392** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.366.**

The offensive ability for the **Levante** is **0.597** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Levante** is **-0.607** and for the **Ath Bilbao** is **-0.552.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Levante** and the red line for guest team, **Ath Bilbao. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Levante |
26% |
28% |
29% |
16% |

Ath Bilbao |
32% |
27% |
23% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Levante** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Ath Bilbao** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.62** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
6.21 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.72 |
2.92 |
3.45 |

2-3 goals |
2.10 |
6.16 |
2.77 |

4+ goals |
3.46 |
2.89 |
2.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
4.33 |
2.76 |

Un 1.5 |
2.72 |
2.92 |
3.45 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.39 |
2.46 |

Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.96 |
3.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |
2.89 |
2.75 |

Un 3.5 |
2.28 |
4.47 |
2.97 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.89 |
3.01 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.92 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.64 |
4.38 |
2.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
5.92 |
3.05 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sevilla vs Barcelona at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sevilla** and **Barcelona** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sevilla |
3.22 |
2.26 |
13.2 |

Draw |
3.52 |
3.70 |
-1.4 |

Barcelona |
2.24 |
3.48 |
-15.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.04 |
-10.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.28 |
1.96 |
7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sevilla, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sevilla** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sevilla** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance** at home**.

Sevilla,** at home**, had 8 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sevilla scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Cadiz |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Barcelona** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barcelona** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance** as a guest**.

Barcelona,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barcelona scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Elche |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Feb |
Cadiz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Feb |
Alaves |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Betis |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Elche |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Granada |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sevilla** is **1** and for the **Barcelona** is **0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Sevilla** is **0.52** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Barcelona** is **0.278.**

The offensive ability for the **Sevilla** is **1** and for the **Barcelona** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sevilla** is **0.726** and for the **Barcelona** is **-0.193.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sevilla** and the red line for guest team, **Barcelona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sevilla |
22% |
35% |
21% |
21% |

Barcelona |
31% |
38% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.62 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.87** goals in the game and the guest team **Barcelona ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sevilla** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Barcelona** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.83 |
3.07 |

2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.61 |
3.50 |

4+ goals |
2.06 |
3.83 |
3.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.68 |
3.64 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.83 |
3.07 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.55 |
3.11 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.50 |
3.92 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.83 |
3.95 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.68 |
3.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.68 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
1.93 |
6.72 |
2.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.17 |
3.02 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.72 |
2.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Eibar vs Huesca at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Eibar** and **Huesca** for **La Liga (Spain)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Eibar |
2.18 |
2.04 |
3.1 |

Draw |
3.28 |
3.82 |
-4.3 |

Huesca |
3.56 |
4.02 |
-3.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
1.99 |
7.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
2.01 |
-12.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Eibar, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Eibar** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eibar** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance** at home**.

Eibar,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Eibar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Elche |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Huesca** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huesca** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance** as a guest**.

Huesca,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huesca scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Granada |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Eibar** is **-0.667** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.133.**

The home dynamic for the **Eibar** is **-0.373** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huesca** is **-0.233.**

The offensive ability for the **Eibar** is **0.167** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.119.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Eibar** is **-1** and for the **Huesca** is **-0.641.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Eibar** and the red line for guest team, **Huesca. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Eibar |
20% |
33% |
23% |
24% |

Huesca |
32% |
40% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Eibar** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and the home team **Eibar ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Eibar** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Huesca** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Eibar ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.91 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.91 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |