2021 02 26 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs Sociedad at 01 March 2021
Levante vs Ath Bilbao at 26 February 2021
Sevilla vs Barcelona at 27 February 2021
Eibar vs Huesca at 27 February 2021
Alaves vs Osasuna at 27 February 2021
Getafe vs Valencia at 27 February 2021
Celta vs Valladolid at 28 February 2021
Villarreal vs Ath Madrid at 28 February 2021
Cadiz vs Betis at 28 February 2021
Granada vs Elche at 28 February 2021


Real Madrid vs Sociedad at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 01 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.91

2.15

-5.8

Draw

3.74

3.82

-0.6

Sociedad

4.12

3.66

3.1

Over 2.5

1.85

1.99

-3.8

Under 2.5

2.00

2.01

-0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad (3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Valladolid

A

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Valencia

H

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Getafe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Huesca

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Levante

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Alaves

A

4

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N


Sociedad in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sociedad in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sociedad’s performance as a guest.
Sociedad, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sociedad scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sociedad was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Alaves

H

4

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Cadiz

H

4

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Villarreal

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Betis

H

2

2

D

O

G

09 Jan

Sevilla

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Osasuna

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Real Madrid is 0.704 and for the Sociedad is 0.422.
The home dynamic for the Real Madrid is 0.343 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sociedad is 0.251.
The offensive ability for the Real Madrid is 1 and for the Sociedad is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Real Madrid is 0.111 and for the Sociedad is -0.076.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Sociedad.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

22%

32%

25%

21%

Sociedad

32%

38%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.67 goals and Sociedad to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.45 goals and Sociedad to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.91

1

5.41

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.94

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.61

3.08

2-3 goals

2.03

4.09

3.81

4+ goals

2.10

3.53

4.16

Ov 1.5

2.05

3.88

3.92

Un 1.5

2.51

3.61

3.08

Ov 2.5

1.77

6.97

3.41

Un 2.5

2.74

2.61

3.96

Ov 3.5

2.10

3.53

4.16

Un 3.5

2.17

3.91

3.52

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.76

4.31

No Goal

1.88

6.63

3.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.69

3.33

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

6.63

3.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Levante vs Ath Bilbao at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Ath Bilbao for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Levante

3.17

2.51

8.3

Draw

3.19

3.89

-5.6

Ath Bilbao

2.42

2.90

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.08

1.91

4.3

Under 2.5

1.79

2.10

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Over 2.5 (8.3 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Ath Madrid

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Ath Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Osasuna

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Granada

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Real Madrid

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Cadiz

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G


Ath Bilbao in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Bilbao in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Bilbao’s performance as a guest.
Ath Bilbao, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Bilbao scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Bilbao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Villarreal

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Feb

Cadiz

A

4

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Valencia

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Barcelona

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Getafe

H

5

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Barcelona

H

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Elche

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Dec

Sociedad

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Levante is 0.17 and for the Ath Bilbao is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.392 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Bilbao is -0.366.
The offensive ability for the Levante is 0.597 and for the Ath Bilbao is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -0.607 and for the Ath Bilbao is -0.552.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Ath Bilbao.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Levante

26%

28%

29%

16%

Ath Bilbao

32%

27%

23%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 1.08 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.36 goals and Ath Bilbao to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

4.08

1

6.21

2-3

2.11

2

4.33

4+

3.57

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.08

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.10

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.72

2.92

3.45

2-3 goals

2.10

6.16

2.77

4+ goals

3.46

2.89

2.75

Ov 1.5

2.46

4.33

2.76

Un 1.5

2.72

2.92

3.45

Ov 2.5

2.46

5.39

2.46

Un 2.5

2.59

2.96

3.63

Ov 3.5

3.46

2.89

2.75

Un 3.5

2.28

4.47

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.89

3.01

No Goal

2.11

5.92

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.64

4.38

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

5.92

3.05


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sevilla vs Barcelona at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

3.22

2.26

13.2

Draw

3.52

3.70

-1.4

Barcelona

2.24

3.48

-15.9

Over 2.5

1.67

2.04

-10.9

Under 2.5

2.28

1.96

7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sevilla, Under 2.5 (13.2 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Feb

Osasuna

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Getafe

H

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Eibar

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Cadiz

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Alaves

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Sociedad

H

3

2

W

O

G


Barcelona in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Elche

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Feb

Cadiz

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Alaves

H

5

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Betis

A

3

2

W

O

G

31 Jan

Ath Bilbao

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Elche

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Granada

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

3

2

W

O

G


The form score for the Sevilla is 1 and for the Barcelona is 0.815.
The home dynamic for the Sevilla is 0.52 and the dynamic as a guest for the Barcelona is 0.278.
The offensive ability for the Sevilla is 1 and for the Barcelona is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sevilla is 0.726 and for the Barcelona is -0.193.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

22%

35%

21%

21%

Barcelona

31%

38%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.25 goals and Barcelona to score 1.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Barcelona to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.41 goals and Barcelona to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.79

1

5.13

2-3

2.05

2

4.08

4+

4.02

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.79

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.83

3.07

2-3 goals

2.29

3.61

3.50

4+ goals

2.06

3.83

3.95

Ov 1.5

2.20

3.68

3.64

Un 1.5

2.42

3.83

3.07

Ov 2.5

1.83

7.55

3.11

Un 2.5

2.91

2.50

3.92

Ov 3.5

2.06

3.83

3.95

Un 3.5

2.33

3.68

3.34

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.68

4.03

No Goal

1.93

6.72

2.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

6.17

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

2.14

6.72

2.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Eibar vs Huesca at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eibar and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eibar

2.18

2.04

3.1

Draw

3.28

3.82

-4.3

Huesca

3.56

4.02

-3.2

Over 2.5

2.34

1.99

7.5

Under 2.5

1.61

2.01

-12.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eibar, Over 2.5 (3.1 %, 7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eibar in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance at home.
Eibar, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Elche

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Valladolid

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Osasuna

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sevilla

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Celta

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Jan

Ath Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Jan

Levante

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N


Huesca in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Granada

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Real Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Jan

Valladolid

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Getafe

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Jan

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Barcelona

H

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Eibar is -0.667 and for the Huesca is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Eibar is -0.373 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huesca is -0.233.
The offensive ability for the Eibar is 0.167 and for the Huesca is -0.119.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Eibar is -1 and for the Huesca is -0.641.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eibar and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eibar

20%

33%

23%

24%

Huesca

32%

40%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.28 goals and Huesca to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.5 goals and Huesca to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.92

1

5.29

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.91

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

5.95

Un 1.5

3.92

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.91

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-