# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Peterboro vs Wigan at 27 February 2021**** Swindon vs Northampton at 27 February 2021**** Rochdale vs Burton at 27 February 2021**** Portsmouth vs Gillingham at 27 February 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Shrewsbury at 27 February 2021**** Plymouth vs Lincoln at 27 February 2021**** Ipswich vs Doncaster at 27 February 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Accrington at 27 February 2021**** Charlton vs Blackpool at 27 February 2021**** AFC Wimbledon vs Hull at 27 February 2021**** Crewe vs Sunderland at 27 February 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford at 27 February 2021**

###
Peterboro vs Wigan at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Wigan** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
1.45 |
1.84 |
-14.6 |

Draw |
4.48 |
3.92 |
3.2 |

Wigan |
6.77 |
4.95 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.16 |
-10.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.86 |
5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wigan, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 5.4 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 11 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Plymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Feb |
Gillingham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** as a guest**.

Wigan,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Hull |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Peterboro** is **0.726** and for the **Wigan** is **-0.311.**

The home dynamic for the **Peterboro** is **0.569** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wigan** is **-0.216.**

The offensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.682** and for the **Wigan** is **0.586.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Peterboro** is **0.059** and for the **Wigan** is **-0.641.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Wigan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
15% |
38% |
28% |
19% |

Wigan |
40% |
36% |
15% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **2.03 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **0.66 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **1.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Wigan** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.68 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.74 |
4.43 |
5.02 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
3.86 |
5.60 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.61 |
3.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
3.78 |
4.93 |

Un 1.5 |
1.74 |
4.43 |
5.02 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.83 |
3.67 |

Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.76 |
7.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.61 |
3.80 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.04 |
5.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.54 |
2.61 |
4.48 |

No Goal |
1.43 |
8.23 |
5.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.29 |
3.28 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.51 |
8.23 |
5.30 |

####
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###
Swindon vs Northampton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Northampton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
2.40 |
2.35 |
0.9 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.75 |
-3.5 |

Northampton |
2.93 |
3.26 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.03 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.97 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Northampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Feb |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Burton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Swindon** is **-0.133** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.496.**

The home dynamic for the **Swindon** is **-0.216** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Northampton** is **0.022.**

The offensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.09** and for the **Northampton** is **-0.938.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Swindon** is **-0.704** and for the **Northampton** is **0.229.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Northampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
25% |
32% |
26% |
18% |

Northampton |
30% |
36% |
22% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.70 |
3.50 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
2.19 |
4.28 |
3.24 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.19 |
3.78 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.84 |
3.40 |

Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.50 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.38 |
3.01 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.68 |
3.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.19 |
3.78 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.97 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.73 |
3.88 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.39 |
2.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.31 |
3.03 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.39 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Rochdale vs Burton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Burton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
2.81 |
2.72 |
1.2 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.55 |
-1.0 |

Burton |
2.42 |
2.86 |
-6.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.17 |
-7.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.85 |
2.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** as a guest**.

Burton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Hull |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Rochdale** is **-0.348** and for the **Burton** is **0.333.**

The home dynamic for the **Rochdale** is **-0.412** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Burton** is **-0.225.**

The offensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-0.631** and for the **Burton** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rochdale** is **-0.237** and for the **Burton** is **0.139.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Burton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
27% |
37% |
23% |
13% |

Burton |
27% |
37% |
26% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.36 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Burton** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.63 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.63 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.73 |
2.78 |

2-3 goals |
2.80 |
3.74 |
2.67 |

4+ goals |
2.57 |
3.00 |
3.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.48 |
2.89 |

Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.73 |
2.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.39 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
3.31 |
2.57 |
3.23 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
3.00 |
3.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.76 |
3.73 |
2.70 |

Goal-Goal |
3.17 |
2.55 |
3.42 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.50 |
2.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.40 |
2.41 |

####
Go to Top

###
Portsmouth vs Gillingham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Gillingham** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
1.63 |
2.19 |
-15.7 |

Draw |
3.87 |
3.79 |
0.5 |

Gillingham |
5.32 |
3.57 |
9.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.04 |
0.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.96 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Gillingham (0.5 %, 9.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Oxford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Gillingham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Portsmouth** is **0.133** and for the **Gillingham** is **-0.17.**

The home dynamic for the **Portsmouth** is **0.078** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Gillingham** is **0.207.**

The offensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **0.571** and for the **Gillingham** is **0.181.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Portsmouth** is **-0.281** and for the **Gillingham** is **-0.552.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Gillingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
22% |
32% |
27% |
18% |

Gillingham |
33% |
36% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.69 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.97** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Gillingham** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.12 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.