2021 02 26 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Wigan at 27 February 2021
Swindon vs Northampton at 27 February 2021
Rochdale vs Burton at 27 February 2021
Portsmouth vs Gillingham at 27 February 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Shrewsbury at 27 February 2021
Plymouth vs Lincoln at 27 February 2021
Ipswich vs Doncaster at 27 February 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Accrington at 27 February 2021
Charlton vs Blackpool at 27 February 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Hull at 27 February 2021
Crewe vs Sunderland at 27 February 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford at 27 February 2021


Peterboro vs Wigan at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.45

1.84

-14.6

Draw

4.48

3.92

3.2

Wigan

6.77

4.95

5.4

Over 2.5

1.77

2.16

-10.2

Under 2.5

2.05

1.86

5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wigan, Under 2.5 (3.2 %, 5.4 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 11 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 35 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Plymouth

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Feb

Gillingham

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Crewe

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Shrewsbury

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N


Wigan in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance as a guest.
Wigan, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 37.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Lincoln

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Hull

H

0

5

L

O

N

14 Feb

Oxford

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Swindon

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Blackpool

H

0

5

L

O

N


The form score for the Peterboro is 0.726 and for the Wigan is -0.311.
The home dynamic for the Peterboro is 0.569 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wigan is -0.216.
The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.682 and for the Wigan is 0.586.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.059 and for the Wigan is -0.641.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

15%

38%

28%

19%

Wigan

40%

36%

15%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 2.03 goals and Wigan to score 0.66 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 1.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.52 goals and Wigan to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

3.76

1

4.85

2-3

1.92

2

3.68

4+

4.69

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.76

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.74

4.43

5.02

2-3 goals

1.78

3.86

5.60

4+ goals

2.17

3.61

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.88

3.78

4.93

Un 1.5

1.74

4.43

5.02

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.83

3.67

Un 2.5

2.01

2.76

7.08

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.61

3.80

Un 3.5

1.76

4.04

5.39

Goal-Goal

2.54

2.61

4.48

No Goal

1.43

8.23

5.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

6.29

3.28

NG+Un 2.5

1.51

8.23

5.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Swindon vs Northampton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.40

2.35

0.9

Draw

3.31

3.75

-3.5

Northampton

2.93

3.26

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.05

2.03

0.5

Under 2.5

1.77

1.97

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Over 2.5 (0.9 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 39.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 14 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Lincoln

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Feb

Crewe

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Portsmouth

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hull

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Plymouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G


Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 28.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Rochdale

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Feb

Ipswich

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Feb

Burton

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Fleetwood Town

A

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Swindon is -0.133 and for the Northampton is -0.496.
The home dynamic for the Swindon is -0.216 and the dynamic as a guest for the Northampton is 0.022.
The offensive ability for the Swindon is -0.09 and for the Northampton is -0.938.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Swindon is -0.704 and for the Northampton is 0.229.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

25%

32%

26%

18%

Northampton

30%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.28 goals and Northampton to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.37 goals and Northampton to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.86

1

5.41

2-3

2.03

2

4.05

4+

4.07

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.11

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.70

3.50

2.91

2-3 goals

2.19

4.28

3.24

4+ goals

2.37

3.19

3.78

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.84

3.40

Un 1.5

2.70

3.50

2.91

Ov 2.5

1.96

6.38

3.01

Un 2.5

2.91

2.68

3.54

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.19

3.78

Un 3.5

2.34

3.97

3.12

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.73

3.88

No Goal

2.07

6.39

2.77

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.31

3.03

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.39

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rochdale vs Burton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

2.81

2.72

1.2

Draw

3.43

3.55

-1.0

Burton

2.42

2.86

-6.4

Over 2.5

1.88

2.17

-7.1

Under 2.5

1.94

1.85

2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 7 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Plymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Oxford

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G


Burton in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Charlton

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Feb

Sunderland

H

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Hull

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Ipswich

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Gillingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Oxford

H

1

5

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wigan

H

3

4

L

O

G


The form score for the Rochdale is -0.348 and for the Burton is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Rochdale is -0.412 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burton is -0.225.
The offensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.631 and for the Burton is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rochdale is -0.237 and for the Burton is 0.139.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

27%

37%

23%

13%

Burton

27%

37%

26%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.22 goals and Burton to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.23 goals and Burton to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.68

1

5.03

2-3

1.95

2

3.73

4+

4.63

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.68

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.73

2.78

2-3 goals

2.80

3.74

2.67

4+ goals

2.57

3.00

3.60

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.48

2.89

Un 1.5

2.69

3.73

2.78

Ov 2.5

2.24

6.39

2.51

Un 2.5

3.31

2.57

3.23

Ov 3.5

2.57

3.00

3.60

Un 3.5

2.76

3.73

2.70

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.55

3.42

No Goal

2.33

6.40

2.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

5.50

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

6.40

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Gillingham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Gillingham for League One (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.63

2.19

-15.7

Draw

3.87

3.79

0.5

Gillingham

5.32

3.57

9.2

Over 2.5

2.04

2.04

0.0

Under 2.5

1.79

1.96

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Gillingham (0.5 %, 9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Oxford

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Blackpool

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Feb

Bristol Rvs

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Feb

Swindon

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Charlton

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Hull

H

0

4

L

O

N


Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance as a guest.
Gillingham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Peterboro

H

1

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Charlton

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Feb

Lincoln

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Crewe

H

4

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Rochdale

H

2

2

D

O

G


The form score for the Portsmouth is 0.133 and for the Gillingham is -0.17.
The home dynamic for the Portsmouth is 0.078 and the dynamic as a guest for the Gillingham is 0.207.
The offensive ability for the Portsmouth is 0.571 and for the Gillingham is 0.181.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Portsmouth is -0.281 and for the Gillingham is -0.552.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Gillingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

22%

32%

27%

18%

Gillingham

33%

36%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.69 goals and Gillingham to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.41 goals and Gillingham to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.82

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.02

4+

4.12

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.82

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.12

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.