# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Port Vale vs Cambridge at 27 February 2021**** Walsall vs Bradford at 27 February 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham at 27 February 2021**** Newport County vs Stevenage at 27 February 2021**** Mansfield vs Morecambe at 27 February 2021**** Harrogate vs Grimsby at 27 February 2021**** Forest Green vs Colchester at 27 February 2021**** Crawley Town vs Exeter at 27 February 2021**** Carlisle vs Oldham at 27 February 2021**** Bolton vs Barrow at 27 February 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Tranmere at 27 February 2021**** Southend vs Salford at 27 February 2021**

###
Port Vale vs Cambridge at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Port Vale** and **Cambridge** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Port Vale |
2.70 |
2.67 |
0.4 |

Draw |
3.07 |
3.60 |
-4.8 |

Cambridge |
2.77 |
2.88 |
-1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.24 |
-4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.81 |
-0.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Port Vale (0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** at home**.

Port Vale,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southend |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** as a guest**.

Cambridge,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Salford |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Barrow |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Southend |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Port Vale** is **-0.296** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Port Vale** is **-0.216** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cambridge** is **-0.031.**

The offensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **0.202** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.119.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Port Vale** is **-0.607** and for the **Cambridge** is **0.229.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Port Vale** and the red line for guest team, **Cambridge. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Port Vale |
29% |
34% |
23% |
13% |

Cambridge |
30% |
36% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Port Vale** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Cambridge** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.72 |

3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.72 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
3.35 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.02 |
2.83 |

4+ goals |
2.79 |
3.16 |
3.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.71 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
3.35 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.66 |
2.49 |

Un 2.5 |
3.17 |
2.63 |
3.30 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.16 |
3.07 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.73 |
2.83 |

Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.60 |
3.44 |

No Goal |
2.36 |
5.71 |
2.49 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.52 |
2.59 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
5.71 |
2.57 |

####
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###
Walsall vs Bradford at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Walsall** and **Bradford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Walsall |
2.81 |
2.56 |
3.5 |

Draw |
3.30 |
3.61 |
-2.6 |

Bradford |
2.50 |
3.00 |
-6.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.25 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.80 |
-2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Walsall (3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Walsall** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Walsall** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance** at home**.

Walsall,** at home**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Walsall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Carlisle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** as a guest**.

Bradford,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Cheltenham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Southend |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Port Vale |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Walsall** is **-0.222** and for the **Bradford** is **0.681.**

The home dynamic for the **Walsall** is **0.108** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bradford** is **-0.286.**

The offensive ability for the **Walsall** is **0.545** and for the **Bradford** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Walsall** is **-1** and for the **Bradford** is **-0.076.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Walsall** and the red line for guest team, **Bradford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Walsall |
29% |
33% |
25% |
13% |

Bradford |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Walsall** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.99 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.78 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.78 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.92 |
3.27 |
2.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.18 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.75 |
3.07 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.77 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.92 |
3.27 |
2.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.53 |
2.66 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.66 |
3.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.75 |
3.07 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.78 |
2.95 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.62 |
3.63 |

No Goal |
2.30 |
5.64 |
2.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.43 |
2.75 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.64 |
2.64 |

####
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###
Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
3.61 |
2.99 |
5.7 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.66 |
-4.0 |

Cheltenham |
2.11 |
2.54 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.16 |
2.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.86 |
-8.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 2.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.333** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.481.**

The home dynamic for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.147** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Cheltenham** is **0.348.**

The offensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **0.227** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Scunthorpe** is **-0.037** and for the **Cheltenham** is **0.552.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
32% |
32% |
24% |
12% |

Cheltenham |
26% |
36% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **0.9 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the guest team **Cheltenham ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.35 |
3.35 |
2.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.76 |
4.28 |
2.47 |

4+ goals |
3.19 |
3.05 |
2.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.80 |
2.56 |

Un 1.5 |
3.35 |
3.35 |
2.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
6.32 |
2.28 |

Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.70 |
2.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.19 |
3.05 |
2.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.95 |
3.88 |
2.47 |

Goal-Goal |
3.22 |
2.65 |
3.20 |

No Goal |
2.81 |
5.89 |
2.11 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
5.26 |
2.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
5.89 |
2.21 |

####
Go to Top

###
Newport County vs Stevenage at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Stevenage** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
2.12 |
2.44 |
-6.2 |

Draw |
3.24 |
3.68 |
-3.7 |

Stevenage |
3.60 |
3.13 |
4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.20 |
2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.83 |
-7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** as a guest**.

Stevenage,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Feb |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Newport County** is **-0.133** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.163.**

The home dynamic for the **Newport County** is **0.5** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stevenage** is **-0.119.**

The offensive ability for the **Newport County** is **0.202** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.145.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newport County** is **-0.311** and for the **Stevenage** is **0.256.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Stevenage. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
28% |
30% |
28% |
14% |

Stevenage |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Stevenage** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.