2021 02 26 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Port Vale vs Cambridge at 27 February 2021
Walsall vs Bradford at 27 February 2021
Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham at 27 February 2021
Newport County vs Stevenage at 27 February 2021
Mansfield vs Morecambe at 27 February 2021
Harrogate vs Grimsby at 27 February 2021
Forest Green vs Colchester at 27 February 2021
Crawley Town vs Exeter at 27 February 2021
Carlisle vs Oldham at 27 February 2021
Bolton vs Barrow at 27 February 2021
Leyton Orient vs Tranmere at 27 February 2021
Southend vs Salford at 27 February 2021


Port Vale vs Cambridge at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Cambridge for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

2.70

2.67

0.4

Draw

3.07

3.60

-4.8

Cambridge

2.77

2.88

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.05

2.24

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.78

1.81

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale (0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 42.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Leyton Orient

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southend

H

5

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Scunthorpe

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Walsall

H

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Forest Green

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N


Cambridge in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance as a guest.
Cambridge, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 51.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Cheltenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Mansfield

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Southend

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Feb

Salford

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Barrow

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Crawley Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Bradford

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Southend

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Port Vale is -0.296 and for the Cambridge is 0.111.
The home dynamic for the Port Vale is -0.216 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is -0.031.
The offensive ability for the Port Vale is 0.202 and for the Cambridge is 0.119.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Port Vale is -0.607 and for the Cambridge is 0.229.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Cambridge.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

29%

34%

23%

13%

Cambridge

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.21 goals and Cambridge to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.21 goals and Cambridge to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.36

1

4.78

2-3

2.04

2

3.91

4+

4.72

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.72

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

3.35

2.84

2-3 goals

2.51

4.02

2.83

4+ goals

2.79

3.16

3.07

Ov 1.5

2.59

3.71

2.90

Un 1.5

2.87

3.35

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.23

6.66

2.49

Un 2.5

3.17

2.63

3.30

Ov 3.5

2.79

3.16

3.07

Un 3.5

2.64

3.73

2.83

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.60

3.44

No Goal

2.36

5.71

2.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.52

2.59

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

5.71

2.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Walsall vs Bradford at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Walsall and Bradford for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Walsall

2.81

2.56

3.5

Draw

3.30

3.61

-2.6

Bradford

2.50

3.00

-6.7

Over 2.5

2.13

2.25

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.72

1.80

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Walsall (3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Walsall in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Walsall in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Walsall’s performance at home.
Walsall, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Walsall scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 13 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Walsall was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Feb

Stevenage

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Cheltenham

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Feb

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Port Vale

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Oldham

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Carlisle

H

0

2

L

U

N


Bradford in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance as a guest.
Bradford, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Leyton Orient

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Cheltenham

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Exeter

A

2

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Barrow

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Southend

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Cambridge

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Port Vale

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Walsall is -0.222 and for the Bradford is 0.681.
The home dynamic for the Walsall is 0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bradford is -0.286.
The offensive ability for the Walsall is 0.545 and for the Bradford is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Walsall is -1 and for the Bradford is -0.076.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Walsall and the red line for guest team, Bradford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Walsall

29%

33%

25%

13%

Bradford

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.12 goals and Bradford to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Walsall to score 1.23 goals and Bradford to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.99

0-1

3.36

1

4.83

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.78

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

4.78

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.92

3.27

2.84

2-3 goals

2.33

4.18

3.02

4+ goals

2.75

3.07

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.77

3.08

Un 1.5

2.92

3.27

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.53

2.66

Un 2.5

3.07

2.66

3.35

Ov 3.5

2.75

3.07

3.22

Un 3.5

2.52

3.78

2.95

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.62

3.63

No Goal

2.30

5.64

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.43

2.75

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

5.64

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Scunthorpe

3.61

2.99

5.7

Draw

3.19

3.66

-4.0

Cheltenham

2.11

2.54

-8.0

Over 2.5

2.28

2.16

2.4

Under 2.5

1.62

1.86

-8.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (5.7 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 47.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Feb

Harrogate

H

3

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Colchester

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Port Vale

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Grimsby

H

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Jan

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Stevenage

A

1

3

L

O

G


Cheltenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 8 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 62.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Cambridge

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Feb

Bradford

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Walsall

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Forest Green

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Oldham

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Scunthorpe is 0.333 and for the Cheltenham is 0.481.
The home dynamic for the Scunthorpe is -0.147 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cheltenham is 0.348.
The offensive ability for the Scunthorpe is 0.227 and for the Cheltenham is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Scunthorpe is -0.037 and for the Cheltenham is 0.552.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Scunthorpe

32%

32%

24%

12%

Cheltenham

26%

36%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 0.9 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the guest team Cheltenham to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.15 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.51

1

5.00

2-3

2.03

2

3.94

4+

4.48

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.51

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.35

3.35

2.48

2-3 goals

2.76

4.28

2.47

4+ goals

3.19

3.05

2.79

Ov 1.5

2.88

3.80

2.56

Un 1.5

3.35

3.35

2.48

Ov 2.5

2.48

6.32

2.28

Un 2.5

3.67

2.70

2.81

Ov 3.5

3.19

3.05

2.79

Un 3.5

2.95

3.88

2.47

Goal-Goal

3.22

2.65

3.20

No Goal

2.81

5.89

2.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

5.26

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.88

5.89

2.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newport County vs Stevenage at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

2.12

2.44

-6.2

Draw

3.24

3.68

-3.7

Stevenage

3.60

3.13

4.2

Over 2.5

2.35

2.20

2.9

Under 2.5

1.61

1.83

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 64.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Walsall

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Forest Green

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Feb

Exeter

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Southend

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Harrogate

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Oldham

A

2

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G


Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance as a guest.
Stevenage, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Port Vale

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Feb

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Feb

Crawley Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Feb

Tranmere

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Morecambe

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Exeter

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Grimsby

A

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Newport County is -0.133 and for the Stevenage is 0.163.
The home dynamic for the Newport County is 0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stevenage is -0.119.
The offensive ability for the Newport County is 0.202 and for the Stevenage is 0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newport County is -0.311 and for the Stevenage is 0.256.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

28%

30%

28%

14%

Stevenage

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.29 goals and Stevenage to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.27 goals and Stevenage to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.47

1

5.05

2-3

2.01

2

3.89

4+

4.61

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.47

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.