2021 02 26 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rennes vs Nice at 26 February 2021
Bordeaux vs Metz at 27 February 2021
Dijon vs Paris SG at 27 February 2021
Nimes vs Nantes at 28 February 2021
Angers vs Lens at 28 February 2021
Lille vs Strasbourg at 28 February 2021
Lorient vs St Etienne at 28 February 2021
Marseille vs Lyon at 28 February 2021
Reims vs Montpellier at 28 February 2021
Monaco vs Brest at 28 February 2021


Rennes vs Nice at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

1.85

2.41

-12.6

Draw

3.39

3.58

-1.6

Nice

4.78

3.27

9.7

Over 2.5

2.15

2.46

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.74

1.69

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nice, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Montpellier

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Lens

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Brest

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Lyon

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Nantes

A

0

0

D

U

N


Nice in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Metz

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Marseille

A

2

3

L

O

G

13 Feb

Paris SG

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Rennes is -0.393 and for the Nice is -0.681.
The home dynamic for the Rennes is 0.157 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nice is 0.295.
The offensive ability for the Rennes is -0.176 and for the Nice is 0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Rennes is -0.652 and for the Nice is -0.614.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

28%

34%

28%

10%

Nice

36%

36%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.54 goals and Nice to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.2 goals and Nice to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

3.05

1

4.44

2-3

2.05

2

3.77

4+

5.41

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.05

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.45

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.18

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.18

3.22

2-3 goals

2.05

3.97

3.84

4+ goals

3.49

3.43

2.37

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.80

3.28

Un 1.5

2.67

3.18

3.22

Ov 2.5

2.14

7.56

2.50

Un 2.5

2.66

2.62

4.12

Ov 3.5

3.49

3.43

2.37

Un 3.5

2.26

3.61

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.59

3.58

No Goal

2.08

5.27

3.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

6.20

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

5.27

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bordeaux vs Metz at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Metz for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bordeaux

2.44

2.48

-0.7

Draw

3.11

3.47

-3.3

Metz

3.20

3.24

-0.4

Over 2.5

2.44

2.48

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.59

1.68

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bordeaux in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance at home.
Bordeaux, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Nimes

A

0

2

L

U

N

14 Feb

Marseille

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Feb

Brest

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Feb

Lille

H

0

3

L

O

N

29 Jan

Lyon

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Angers

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Nice

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Lorient

H

2

1

W

O

G


Metz in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance as a guest.
Metz, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Strasbourg

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Brest

A

4

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Nantes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lyon

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Nice

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Bordeaux is -0.541 and for the Metz is 0.126.
The home dynamic for the Bordeaux is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Metz is 0.181.
The offensive ability for the Bordeaux is -0.262 and for the Metz is 0.586.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bordeaux is -0.63 and for the Metz is -0.668.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bordeaux and the red line for guest team, Metz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bordeaux

26%

40%

22%

12%

Metz

36%

35%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.17 goals and Metz to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.19 goals and Metz to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.64

0-1

3.03

1

4.24

2-3

2.05

2

3.76

4+

5.46

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.00

Un 1.5

3.03

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.51

3.51

2-3 goals

2.47

3.45

3.27

4+ goals

2.86

3.45

2.77

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.45

3.12

Un 1.5

2.32

3.51

3.51

Ov 2.5

2.20

7.62

2.42

Un 2.5

2.72

2.54

4.20

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.45

2.77

Un 3.5

2.41

3.48

3.36

Goal-Goal

3.36

2.44

3.41

No Goal

2.01

5.60

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.36

6.28

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.08

5.60

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dijon vs Paris SG at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dijon

13.65

4.29

16.0

Draw

7.19

3.04

19.0

Paris SG

1.20

2.28

-39.5

Over 2.5

1.40

2.36

-29.1

Under 2.5

2.93

1.74

23.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dijon, Draw, Under 2.5 (16 %, 19 %, 23.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dijon in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dijon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance at home.
Dijon, at home, had no wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 15.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Lens

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Nimes

H

0

2

L

U

N

07 Feb

Montpellier

A

2

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Lyon

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Lille

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Lorient

A

2

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Strasbourg

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Marseille

H

0

0

D

U

N


Paris SG in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Monaco

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Nice

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Lorient

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Montpellier

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Brest

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Dijon is -1 and for the Paris SG is 0.311.
The home dynamic for the Dijon is -0.627 and the dynamic as a guest for the Paris SG is 0.436.
The offensive ability for the Dijon is -0.142 and for the Paris SG is 0.533.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dijon is -1 and for the Paris SG is 0.139.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dijon and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dijon

41%

46%

1%

12%

Paris SG

32%

34%

0%

34%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dijon to score 0.46 goals and Paris SG to score 2.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.4 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 2.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dijon to score 0.84 goals and Paris SG to score 1.36 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.63

0-1

2.39

1

3.48

2-3

2.94

2

6.33

4+

4.10

3

5.49

Ov 1.5

1.71

4

5.05

Un 1.5

2.39

5

250.00

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.48

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

1.67

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.86

3.19

2.96

2-3 goals

7.39

2.18

2.46

4+ goals

5.81

5.81

1.53

Ov 1.5

6.64

2.95

1.96

Un 1.5

2.86

3.19

2.96

Ov 2.5

5.01

10.14

1.42

Un 2.5

3.87

2.01

4.11

Ov 3.5

5.81

5.81

1.53

Un 3.5

3.95

2.64

2.72

Goal-Goal

8.76

2.04

2.53

No Goal

3.19

4.57

2.14

G-G+Ov 2.5

5.37

5.88

1.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.82

4.57

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nimes vs Nantes at 28 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nimes and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 28 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nimes

3.02

2.29

10.6

Draw

3.33

3.65

-2.6

Nantes

2.42

3.45

-12.3

Over 2.5

2.09

2.41

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.78

1.71

2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nimes, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 2.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nimes in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nimes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance at home.
Nimes, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nimes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

24 Feb

Lorient

H

1

0

W

U

N

21 Feb

Bordeaux

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N

07 Feb

Monaco

H

3

4

L

O

G

03 Feb

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Angers

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Marseille

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N


Nantes in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Marseille

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Angers

A

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Lille

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Nimes is 0.111 and for the Nantes is -0.274.
The home dynamic for the Nimes is -0.814 and the dynamic as a guest for the Nantes is -0.286.
The offensive ability for the Nimes is 0.657 and for the Nantes is 0.269.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Nimes is 0.111 and for the Nantes is -1.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nimes and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nimes

27%

32%

30%

11%

Nantes

37%

36%

15%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.1 goals and Nantes to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nimes to score 1.25 goals and Nantes to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.13

1

4.61

2-3

2.02

2

3.75

4+

5.38

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.13

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.41

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.84

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-