# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Rennes vs Nice at 26 February 2021**** Bordeaux vs Metz at 27 February 2021**** Dijon vs Paris SG at 27 February 2021**** Nimes vs Nantes at 28 February 2021**** Angers vs Lens at 28 February 2021**** Lille vs Strasbourg at 28 February 2021**** Lorient vs St Etienne at 28 February 2021**** Marseille vs Lyon at 28 February 2021**** Reims vs Montpellier at 28 February 2021**** Monaco vs Brest at 28 February 2021**

###
Rennes vs Nice at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rennes** and **Nice** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rennes |
1.85 |
2.41 |
-12.6 |

Draw |
3.39 |
3.58 |
-1.6 |

Nice |
4.78 |
3.27 |
9.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.46 |
-5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.69 |
1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nice, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** at home**.

Rennes,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Lens |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Brest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** as a guest**.

Nice,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Metz |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Angers |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Feb |
Monaco |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Rennes** is **-0.393** and for the **Nice** is **-0.681.**

The home dynamic for the **Rennes** is **0.157** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nice** is **0.295.**

The offensive ability for the **Rennes** is **-0.176** and for the **Nice** is **0.674.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Rennes** is **-0.652** and for the **Nice** is **-0.614.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rennes** and the red line for guest team, **Nice. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rennes |
28% |
34% |
28% |
10% |

Nice |
36% |
36% |
15% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Nice** to score **0.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Rennes ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Nice** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.71 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.44 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.18 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.18 |
3.22 |

2-3 goals |
2.05 |
3.97 |
3.84 |

4+ goals |
3.49 |
3.43 |
2.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.80 |
3.28 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.18 |
3.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
7.56 |
2.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.62 |
4.12 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.49 |
3.43 |
2.37 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.61 |
3.56 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
2.59 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.08 |
5.27 |
3.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.20 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
5.27 |
3.26 |

####
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###
Bordeaux vs Metz at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bordeaux** and **Metz** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bordeaux |
2.44 |
2.48 |
-0.7 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.47 |
-3.3 |

Metz |
3.20 |
3.24 |
-0.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.44 |
2.48 |
-0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.68 |
-3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** at home**.

Bordeaux,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Nimes |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Brest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Lille |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Angers |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Lorient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Metz** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Metz** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance** as a guest**.

Metz,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Metz scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Nice |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Brest |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Nice |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Bordeaux** is **-0.541** and for the **Metz** is **0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Bordeaux** is **-0.108** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Metz** is **0.181.**

The offensive ability for the **Bordeaux** is **-0.262** and for the **Metz** is **0.586.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Bordeaux** is **-0.63** and for the **Metz** is **-0.668.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bordeaux** and the red line for guest team, **Metz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bordeaux |
26% |
40% |
22% |
12% |

Metz |
36% |
35% |
18% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bordeaux** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Metz** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bordeaux** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Metz** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.15** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.03 |

1 |
4.24 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.52 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.03 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.68 |

Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.32 |
3.51 |
3.51 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
3.45 |
3.27 |

4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.45 |
2.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.45 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.32 |
3.51 |
3.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
7.62 |
2.42 |

Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.54 |
4.20 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.45 |
2.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.48 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
3.36 |
2.44 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.01 |
5.60 |
3.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.28 |
2.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.60 |
3.20 |

####
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###
Dijon vs Paris SG at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dijon** and **Paris SG** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dijon |
13.65 |
4.29 |
16.0 |

Draw |
7.19 |
3.04 |
19.0 |

Paris SG |
1.20 |
2.28 |
-39.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.40 |
2.36 |
-29.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.93 |
1.74 |
23.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Dijon, Draw, Under 2.5 (16 %, 19 %, 23.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dijon** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dijon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dijon’s performance** at home**.

Dijon,** at home**, had no wins, 6 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 15.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Dijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dijon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Lens |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Nimes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Montpellier |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Lille |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Strasbourg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Marseille |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** as a guest**.

Paris SG,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 63.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Monaco |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Nice |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Nimes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Lorient |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Montpellier |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Angers |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Brest |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Dijon** is **-1** and for the **Paris SG** is **0.311.**

The home dynamic for the **Dijon** is **-0.627** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Paris SG** is **0.436.**

The offensive ability for the **Dijon** is **-0.142** and for the **Paris SG** is **0.533.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Dijon** is **-1** and for the **Paris SG** is **0.139.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dijon** and the red line for guest team, **Paris SG. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dijon |
41% |
46% |
1% |
12% |

Paris SG |
32% |
34% |
0% |
34% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dijon** to score **0.46 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **2.94 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.4** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **2.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dijon** to score **0.84 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.36 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.63 |
0-1 |
2.39 |

1 |
3.48 |
2-3 |
2.94 |

2 |
6.33 |
4+ |
4.10 |

3 |
5.49 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |

4 |
5.05 |
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |

5 |
250.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |

Gg |
2.48 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |

NoG |
1.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.19 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
7.39 |
2.18 |
2.46 |

4+ goals |
5.81 |
5.81 |
1.53 |

Ov 1.5 |
6.64 |
2.95 |
1.96 |

Un 1.5 |
2.86 |
3.19 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
5.01 |
10.14 |
1.42 |

Un 2.5 |
3.87 |
2.01 |
4.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.81 |
5.81 |
1.53 |

Un 3.5 |
3.95 |
2.64 |
2.72 |

Goal-Goal |
8.76 |
2.04 |
2.53 |

No Goal |
3.19 |
4.57 |
2.14 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
5.37 |
5.88 |
1.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.82 |
4.57 |
3.00 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nimes vs Nantes at 28 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nimes** and **Nantes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **28 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nimes |
3.02 |
2.29 |
10.6 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.65 |
-2.6 |

Nantes |
2.42 |
3.45 |
-12.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.41 |
-6.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.71 |
2.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nimes, Under 2.5 (10.6 %, 2.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nimes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nimes** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Nimes’s performance** at home**.

Nimes,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nimes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nimes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Feb |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Feb |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Monaco |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Angers |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** as a guest**.

Nantes,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 25.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Marseille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Angers |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Lille |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Nimes** is **0.111** and for the **Nantes** is **-0.274.**

The home dynamic for the **Nimes** is **-0.814** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Nantes** is **-0.286.**

The offensive ability for the **Nimes** is **0.657** and for the **Nantes** is **0.269.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Nimes** is **0.111** and for the **Nantes** is **-1.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nimes** and the red line for guest team, **Nantes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nimes |
27% |
32% |
30% |
11% |

Nantes |
37% |
36% |
15% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nimes** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Nantes** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.80 |
0-1 |
3.13 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.38 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |

NoG |
1.84 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |