# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Everton vs Southampton at 01 March 2021**** West Brom vs Brighton at 27 February 2021**** Newcastle vs Wolves at 27 February 2021**** Man City vs West Ham at 27 February 2021**** Leeds vs Aston Villa at 27 February 2021**** Tottenham vs Burnley at 28 February 2021**** Sheffield United vs Liverpool at 28 February 2021**** Chelsea vs Man United at 28 February 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Fulham at 28 February 2021**** Leicester vs Arsenal at 28 February 2021**

###
Everton vs Southampton at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Everton** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **01 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Everton |
2.22 |
2.22 |
0.0 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.73 |
-2.4 |

Southampton |
3.36 |
3.55 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.05 |
-2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.95 |
-2.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** at home**.

Everton,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Man United |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

23 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Feb |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Man United |
A |
0 |
9 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Everton** is **-0.148** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.815.**

The home dynamic for the **Everton** is **0.02** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Southampton** is **0.339.**

The offensive ability for the **Everton** is **0.288** and for the **Southampton** is **-0.145.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Everton** is **-0.607** and for the **Southampton** is **-1.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Everton** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Everton |
22% |
38% |
15% |
24% |

Southampton |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Everton** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Everton ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.55 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.15 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.55 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.20 |
3.76 |
3.57 |

2-3 goals |
2.47 |
3.42 |
3.30 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
4.42 |
4.06 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.72 |
3.53 |

Un 1.5 |
2.20 |
3.76 |
3.57 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
8.56 |
3.03 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.42 |
4.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.42 |
4.06 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.54 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.67 |
3.82 |

No Goal |
1.85 |
6.44 |
3.29 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.67 |
2.81 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.44 |
3.10 |

####
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###
West Brom vs Brighton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **West Brom** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

West Brom |
3.99 |
4.22 |
-1.4 |

Draw |
3.44 |
4.12 |
-4.8 |

Brighton |
2.00 |
1.92 |
2.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
1.90 |
6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
2.11 |
-10.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brighton, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** at home**.

West Brom,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Man United |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Tottenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Man City |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

22 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **West Brom** is **-0.467** and for the **Brighton** is **0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **West Brom** is **-0.716** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Brighton** is **-0.004.**

The offensive ability for the **West Brom** is **-0.176** and for the **Brighton** is **0.233.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **West Brom** is **-0.607** and for the **Brighton** is **0.525.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **West Brom** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

West Brom |
38% |
28% |
26% |
8% |

Brighton |
19% |
30% |
26% |
25% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the guest team **Brighton ** to win by **0.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **West Brom** to score **1.03 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Brighton ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.75 |

3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.12 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.71 |
3.33 |
2.05 |

2-3 goals |
3.48 |
5.95 |
1.84 |

4+ goals |
5.93 |
3.03 |
1.99 |

Ov 1.5 |
4.07 |
4.45 |
1.89 |

Un 1.5 |
4.71 |
3.33 |
2.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.81 |
6.01 |
1.75 |

Un 2.5 |
4.77 |
3.05 |
2.17 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.93 |
3.03 |
1.99 |

Un 3.5 |
3.80 |
4.74 |
1.90 |

Goal-Goal |
4.04 |
2.93 |
2.43 |

No Goal |
4.39 |
6.94 |
1.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.37 |
4.75 |
2.03 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.93 |
6.94 |
1.78 |

####
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###
Newcastle vs Wolves at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Wolves** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
3.68 |
2.50 |
12.8 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.73 |
-4.5 |

Wolves |
2.18 |
3.01 |
-12.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.04 |
6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
1.96 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Man United |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Wolves** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wolves** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance** as a guest**.

Wolves,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wolves scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Southampton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Newcastle** is **-0.356** and for the **Wolves** is **0.393.**

The home dynamic for the **Newcastle** is **-0.186** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Wolves** is **-0.172.**

The offensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **0.571** and for the **Wolves** is **-0.084.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Newcastle** is **-0.704** and for the **Wolves** is **0.229.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Wolves. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
26% |
34% |
24% |
17% |

Wolves |
30% |
35% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **0.9 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and the guest team **Wolves ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Wolves** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.45 |
2.99 |

2-3 goals |
2.33 |
4.15 |
3.03 |

4+ goals |
2.65 |
3.41 |
3.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.86 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.45 |
2.99 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.70 |
2.60 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.63 |
3.57 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.41 |
3.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.87 |
3.01 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.74 |
3.42 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.18 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.49 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
6.18 |
2.76 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man City vs West Ham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.24 |
1.69 |
-21.5 |

Draw |
6.60 |
4.18 |
8.8 |

West Ham |
12.57 |
5.92 |
8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
2.06 |
-17.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
1.94 |
11.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, West Ham, Under 2.5 (8.8 %, 8.9 %, 11.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

07 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Tottenham |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sheffield United |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Man City** is **1** and for the **West Ham** is **0.533.**

The home dynamic for the **Man City** is **0.627** and the dynamic as a guest for the **West Ham** is **0.119.**

The offensive ability for the **Man City** is **1** and for the **West Ham** is **0.586.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Man City** is **0.311** and for the **West Ham** is **-0.13.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
14% |
34% |
27% |
25% |

West Ham |
43% |
36% |
15% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.63 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **0.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.1** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **2.17** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.63 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
3.88 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |