2021 02 26 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Everton vs Southampton at 01 March 2021
West Brom vs Brighton at 27 February 2021
Newcastle vs Wolves at 27 February 2021
Man City vs West Ham at 27 February 2021
Leeds vs Aston Villa at 27 February 2021
Tottenham vs Burnley at 28 February 2021
Sheffield United vs Liverpool at 28 February 2021
Chelsea vs Man United at 28 February 2021
Crystal Palace vs Fulham at 28 February 2021
Leicester vs Arsenal at 28 February 2021


Everton vs Southampton at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Everton and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 01 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Everton

2.22

2.22

0.0

Draw

3.42

3.73

-2.4

Southampton

3.36

3.55

-1.6

Over 2.5

1.97

2.05

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.87

1.95

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Everton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance at home.
Everton, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Liverpool

A

2

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Man City

H

1

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Fulham

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Man United

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Feb

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G


Southampton in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

23 Feb

Leeds

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Feb

Chelsea

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Wolves

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Newcastle

A

2

3

L

O

G

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Leicester

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Everton is -0.148 and for the Southampton is -0.815.
The home dynamic for the Everton is 0.02 and the dynamic as a guest for the Southampton is 0.339.
The offensive ability for the Everton is 0.288 and for the Southampton is -0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is -0.607 and for the Southampton is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Everton and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Everton

22%

38%

15%

24%

Southampton

34%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.43 goals and Southampton to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.42 goals and Southampton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.55

1

4.83

2-3

2.15

2

4.37

4+

3.97

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.55

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.76

3.57

2-3 goals

2.47

3.42

3.30

4+ goals

1.89

4.42

4.06

Ov 1.5

2.23

3.72

3.53

Un 1.5

2.20

3.76

3.57

Ov 2.5

1.81

8.56

3.03

Un 2.5

2.85

2.42

4.22

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.42

4.06

Un 3.5

2.36

3.54

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.67

3.82

No Goal

1.85

6.44

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

6.67

2.81

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.44

3.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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West Brom vs Brighton at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between West Brom and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

West Brom

3.99

4.22

-1.4

Draw

3.44

4.12

-4.8

Brighton

2.00

1.92

2.1

Over 2.5

2.16

1.90

6.3

Under 2.5

1.73

2.11

-10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brighton, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance at home.
West Brom, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Burnley

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Man United

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Tottenham

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Feb

Sheffield United

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Fulham

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Man City

H

0

5

L

O

N

19 Jan

West Ham

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Wolves

A

3

2

W

O

G


Brighton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

13 Feb

Aston Villa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Burnley

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Feb

Liverpool

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Tottenham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Fulham

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Leeds

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

Man City

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the West Brom is -0.467 and for the Brighton is 0.111.
The home dynamic for the West Brom is -0.716 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brighton is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the West Brom is -0.176 and for the Brighton is 0.233.
Finally, the defensive ability for the West Brom is -0.607 and for the Brighton is 0.525.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, West Brom and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

West Brom

38%

28%

26%

8%

Brighton

19%

30%

26%

25%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 0.88 goals and Brighton to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Brighton to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.03 goals and Brighton to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Brighton to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

4.17

1

5.95

2-3

2.02

2

4.31

4+

3.75

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.21

Un 1.5

4.17

5

11.63

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.12

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.75

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.71

3.33

2.05

2-3 goals

3.48

5.95

1.84

4+ goals

5.93

3.03

1.99

Ov 1.5

4.07

4.45

1.89

Un 1.5

4.71

3.33

2.05

Ov 2.5

3.81

6.01

1.75

Un 2.5

4.77

3.05

2.17

Ov 3.5

5.93

3.03

1.99

Un 3.5

3.80

4.74

1.90

Goal-Goal

4.04

2.93

2.43

No Goal

4.39

6.94

1.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.37

4.75

2.03

NG+Un 2.5

3.93

6.94

1.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newcastle vs Wolves at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Wolves for Premier League (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

3.68

2.50

12.8

Draw

3.19

3.73

-4.5

Wolves

2.18

3.01

-12.6

Over 2.5

2.34

2.04

6.3

Under 2.5

1.63

1.96

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (12.8 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Man United

A

1

3

L

O

G

15 Feb

Chelsea

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Southampton

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Everton

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Aston Villa

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

3

L

O

N


Wolves in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance as a guest.
Wolves, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Leeds

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Southampton

A

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Leicester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Jan

Chelsea

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

West Brom

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Everton

H

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Newcastle is -0.356 and for the Wolves is 0.393.
The home dynamic for the Newcastle is -0.186 and the dynamic as a guest for the Wolves is -0.172.
The offensive ability for the Newcastle is 0.571 and for the Wolves is -0.084.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Newcastle is -0.704 and for the Wolves is 0.229.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Wolves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

26%

34%

24%

17%

Wolves

30%

35%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 0.9 goals and Wolves to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the guest team Wolves to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.32 goals and Wolves to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.72

1

5.24

2-3

2.08

2

4.15

4+

4.02

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.72

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.66

3.45

2.99

2-3 goals

2.33

4.15

3.03

4+ goals

2.65

3.41

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.43

3.86

3.03

Un 1.5

2.66

3.45

2.99

Ov 2.5

2.14

6.70

2.60

Un 2.5

2.95

2.63

3.57

Ov 3.5

2.65

3.41

3.04

Un 3.5

2.44

3.87

3.01

Goal-Goal

2.92

2.74

3.42

No Goal

2.15

6.18

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.49

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.18

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man City vs West Ham at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man City

1.24

1.69

-21.5

Draw

6.60

4.18

8.8

West Ham

12.57

5.92

8.9

Over 2.5

1.52

2.06

-17.2

Under 2.5

2.49

1.94

11.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, West Ham, Under 2.5 (8.8 %, 8.9 %, 11.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 9 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 29 points, 80.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Arsenal

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

13 Feb

Tottenham

H

3

0

W

O

N

07 Feb

Liverpool

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Burnley

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

West Brom

A

5

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Aston Villa

H

2

0

W

U

N


West Ham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Tottenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sheffield United

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Fulham

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Aston Villa

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Burnley

H

1

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Man City is 1 and for the West Ham is 0.533.
The home dynamic for the Man City is 0.627 and the dynamic as a guest for the West Ham is 0.119.
The offensive ability for the Man City is 1 and for the West Ham is 0.586.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Man City is 0.311 and for the West Ham is -0.13.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man City

14%

34%

27%

25%

West Ham

43%

36%

15%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.63 goals and West Ham to score 0.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 2.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.63 goals and West Ham to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

3.88

1

5.08

2-3

1.92

2

3.88

4+

4.55

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.88

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.55

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-