2021 02 26 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Moreirense vs Belenenses at 01 March 2021
Benfica vs Rio Ave at 01 March 2021
Guimaraes vs Boavista at 26 February 2021
Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 February 2021
Porto vs Sp Lisbon at 27 February 2021
Famalicao vs Farense at 27 February 2021
Tondela vs Gil Vicente at 28 February 2021
Nacional vs Sp Braga at 28 February 2021
Portimonense vs Maritimo at 28 February 2021


Moreirense vs Belenenses at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Moreirense and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 01 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Moreirense

2.61

2.05

10.5

Draw

2.96

3.75

-7.1

Belenenses

2.90

4.05

-9.8

Over 2.5

2.56

2.22

6.0

Under 2.5

1.52

1.82

-10.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Moreirense, Over 2.5 (10.5 %, 6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Moreirense in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Moreirense in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance at home.
Moreirense, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Moreirense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Boavista

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Feb

Farense

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Famalicao

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

4

L

O

N

24 Jan

Portimonense

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Nacional

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Guimaraes

H

2

2

D

O

G


Belenenses in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Nacional

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Feb

Famalicao

A

0

0

D

U

N

08 Feb

Guimaraes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Feb

Porto

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Jan

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Moreirense is -0.015 and for the Belenenses is 0.185.
The home dynamic for the Moreirense is 0.01 and the dynamic as a guest for the Belenenses is -0.401.
The offensive ability for the Moreirense is 0.202 and for the Belenenses is -0.172.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Moreirense is -0.681 and for the Belenenses is 0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Moreirense and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Moreirense

23%

33%

24%

20%

Belenenses

38%

38%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.07 goals and Belenenses to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Moreirense to score 1.41 goals and Belenenses to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Moreirense to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.34

1

4.72

2-3

2.05

2

4.00

4+

4.67

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.34

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.41

3.44

3.40

2-3 goals

1.89

3.94

4.60

4+ goals

2.02

3.89

4.04

Ov 1.5

1.93

3.92

4.42

Un 1.5

2.41

3.44

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.66

8.22

3.65

Un 2.5

2.55

2.60

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.89

4.04

Un 3.5

2.06

3.73

4.06

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.67

4.69

No Goal

1.80

6.01

3.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

6.44

3.47

NG+Un 2.5

1.98

6.01

3.46


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Benfica vs Rio Ave at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Benfica and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 01 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benfica

1.43

1.59

-7.0

Draw

4.40

4.46

-0.3

Rio Ave

7.28

6.80

1.0

Over 2.5

1.78

2.13

-9.2

Under 2.5

2.04

1.88

4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rio Ave, Under 2.5 (1 %, 4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Benfica in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance at home.
Benfica, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Farense

A

0

0

D

U

N

14 Feb

Moreirense

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Feb

Famalicao

H

2

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Guimaraes

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Jan

Nacional

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Jan

Porto

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N


Rio Ave in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Famalicao

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Guimaraes

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Portimonense

H

3

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Benfica is 0.022 and for the Rio Ave is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Benfica is 0.627 and the dynamic as a guest for the Rio Ave is -0.198.
The offensive ability for the Benfica is -0.176 and for the Rio Ave is -0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Benfica is 0.059 and for the Rio Ave is -0.614.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benfica

16%

30%

27%

27%

Rio Ave

50%

31%

15%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 2.05 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 1.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.65 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.73 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.60

1

5.00

2-3

1.91

2

3.95

4+

5.03

3

3.69

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.60

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

5.03

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.83

3.56

5.79

2-3 goals

1.48

5.57

6.89

4+ goals

1.60

3.83

8.65

Ov 1.5

1.51

4.95

7.30

Un 1.5

1.83

3.56

5.79

Ov 2.5

1.37

9.04

6.27

Un 2.5

1.85

3.09

7.38

Ov 3.5

1.60

3.83

8.65

Un 3.5

1.58

4.66

6.47

Goal-Goal

2.03

2.90

6.13

No Goal

1.37

7.41

7.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

6.33

4.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.52

7.41

6.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Guimaraes vs Boavista at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

1.99

2.82

-14.8

Draw

3.34

3.65

-2.5

Boavista

3.79

2.70

10.7

Over 2.5

2.19

2.38

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.69

1.73

-1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Boavista (10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Feb

Farense

H

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Rio Ave

H

1

3

L

O

G

08 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Benfica

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Maritimo

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Jan

Nacional

H

3

1

W

O

G


Boavista in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had one win, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Porto

A

2

2

D

O

G

09 Feb

Nacional

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Tondela

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Guimaraes is -0.237 and for the Boavista is -0.126.
The home dynamic for the Guimaraes is -0.167 and the dynamic as a guest for the Boavista is -0.172.
The offensive ability for the Guimaraes is 0.657 and for the Boavista is 0.269.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Guimaraes is -0.43 and for the Boavista is -0.525.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

32%

37%

19%

12%

Boavista

36%

25%

29%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.4 goals and Boavista to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.11 goals and Boavista to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.62

0-1

3.06

1

4.74

2-3

2.07

2

3.95

4+

5.24

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.06

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

2.82

4.09

2-3 goals

3.04

5.31

2.07

4+ goals

2.94

2.81

3.29

Ov 1.5

3.01

4.24

2.32

Un 1.5

2.50

2.82

4.09

Ov 2.5

2.70

6.19

2.14

Un 2.5

2.91

2.80

3.33

Ov 3.5

2.94

2.81

3.29

Un 3.5

2.79

3.91

2.59

Goal-Goal

3.88

2.74

2.65

No Goal

2.33

4.88

2.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.07

5.06

2.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

4.88

2.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Santa Clara

2.65

3.72

-10.9

Draw

3.02

3.75

-6.4

Pacos Ferreira

2.83

2.16

11.0

Over 2.5

2.47

2.16

5.8

Under 2.5

1.56

1.86

-10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (11 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Santa Clara in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance at home.
Santa Clara, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Sp Braga

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

1

W

O

G

04 Feb

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Belenenses

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Rio Ave

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Boavista

A

1

1

D

U

G


Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Guimaraes

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Feb

Sp Lisbon

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Feb

Portimonense

H

0

0

D

U

N

05 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Maritimo

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Santa Clara is 0.074 and for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.459.
The home dynamic for the Santa Clara is -0.588 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.304.
The offensive ability for the Santa Clara is 0.116 and for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Santa Clara is -0.704 and for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.256.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Santa Clara and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Santa Clara

35%

37%

18%

10%

Pacos Ferreira

24%

32%

25%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.08 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Santa Clara to score 1.02 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.48

1

4.93

2-3

2.04

2

4.00

4+

4.46

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.48

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-