# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Moreirense vs Belenenses at 01 March 2021**** Benfica vs Rio Ave at 01 March 2021**** Guimaraes vs Boavista at 26 February 2021**** Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 February 2021**** Porto vs Sp Lisbon at 27 February 2021**** Famalicao vs Farense at 27 February 2021**** Tondela vs Gil Vicente at 28 February 2021**** Nacional vs Sp Braga at 28 February 2021**** Portimonense vs Maritimo at 28 February 2021**

###
Moreirense vs Belenenses at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Moreirense** and **Belenenses** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **01 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Moreirense |
2.61 |
2.05 |
10.5 |

Draw |
2.96 |
3.75 |
-7.1 |

Belenenses |
2.90 |
4.05 |
-9.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.22 |
6.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.82 |
-10.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Moreirense, Over 2.5 (10.5 %, 6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Moreirense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Moreirense** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Moreirense’s performance** at home**.

Moreirense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Moreirense scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Moreirense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Feb |
Farense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** as a guest**.

Belenenses,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Feb |
Famalicao |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Feb |
Porto |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Moreirense** is **-0.015** and for the **Belenenses** is **0.185.**

The home dynamic for the **Moreirense** is **0.01** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Belenenses** is **-0.401.**

The offensive ability for the **Moreirense** is **0.202** and for the **Belenenses** is **-0.172.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Moreirense** is **-0.681** and for the **Belenenses** is **0.166.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Moreirense** and the red line for guest team, **Belenenses. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Moreirense |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Belenenses |
38% |
38% |
15% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Moreirense** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Belenenses** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Moreirense ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.41 |
3.44 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
1.89 |
3.94 |
4.60 |

4+ goals |
2.02 |
3.89 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.92 |
4.42 |

Un 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.44 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
8.22 |
3.65 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.60 |
4.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.02 |
3.89 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.73 |
4.06 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.67 |
4.69 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.01 |
3.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
6.44 |
3.47 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
6.01 |
3.46 |

####
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###
Benfica vs Rio Ave at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Benfica** and **Rio Ave** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **01 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Benfica |
1.43 |
1.59 |
-7.0 |

Draw |
4.40 |
4.46 |
-0.3 |

Rio Ave |
7.28 |
6.80 |
1.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
2.13 |
-9.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
1.88 |
4.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rio Ave, Under 2.5 (1 %, 4.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Benfica** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benfica** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance** at home**.

Benfica,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Benfica scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benfica was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Farense |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Feb |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Porto |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** as a guest**.

Rio Ave,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Benfica** is **0.022** and for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Benfica** is **0.627** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.198.**

The offensive ability for the **Benfica** is **-0.176** and for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Benfica** is **0.059** and for the **Rio Ave** is **-0.614.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Benfica** and the red line for guest team, **Rio Ave. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Benfica |
16% |
30% |
27% |
27% |

Rio Ave |
50% |
31% |
15% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Benfica** to score **2.05 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and the home team **Benfica ** to win by **1.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Benfica** to score **1.65 ** goals and **Rio Ave** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the home team **Benfica ** to win by **0.92** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.03 |

3 |
3.69 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.83 |
3.56 |
5.79 |

2-3 goals |
1.48 |
5.57 |
6.89 |

4+ goals |
1.60 |
3.83 |
8.65 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
4.95 |
7.30 |

Un 1.5 |
1.83 |
3.56 |
5.79 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.37 |
9.04 |
6.27 |

Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
3.09 |
7.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.60 |
3.83 |
8.65 |

Un 3.5 |
1.58 |
4.66 |
6.47 |

Goal-Goal |
2.03 |
2.90 |
6.13 |

No Goal |
1.37 |
7.41 |
7.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.33 |
4.77 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.52 |
7.41 |
6.07 |

####
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###
Guimaraes vs Boavista at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Guimaraes** and **Boavista** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Guimaraes |
1.99 |
2.82 |
-14.8 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.65 |
-2.5 |

Boavista |
3.79 |
2.70 |
10.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.38 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.73 |
-1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Boavista (10.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Guimaraes** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Guimaraes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance** at home**.

Guimaraes,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Feb |
Farense |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

13 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Feb |
Belenenses |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

05 Feb |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Boavista** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boavista** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance** as a guest**.

Boavista,** as a guest**, had one win, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Moreirense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Porto |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.237** and for the **Boavista** is **-0.126.**

The home dynamic for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.167** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Boavista** is **-0.172.**

The offensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **0.657** and for the **Boavista** is **0.269.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Guimaraes** is **-0.43** and for the **Boavista** is **-0.525.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Guimaraes** and the red line for guest team, **Boavista. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Guimaraes |
32% |
37% |
19% |
12% |

Boavista |
36% |
25% |
29% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Boavista** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Guimaraes ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Guimaraes** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Boavista** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.62 |
0-1 |
3.06 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
5.24 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.06 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.24 |

NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
2.82 |
4.09 |

2-3 goals |
3.04 |
5.31 |
2.07 |

4+ goals |
2.94 |
2.81 |
3.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.01 |
4.24 |
2.32 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
2.82 |
4.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.70 |
6.19 |
2.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.91 |
2.80 |
3.33 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.94 |
2.81 |
3.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.79 |
3.91 |
2.59 |

Goal-Goal |
3.88 |
2.74 |
2.65 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
4.88 |
2.73 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.07 |
5.06 |
2.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
4.88 |
2.81 |

####
Go to Top

###
Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Santa Clara** and **Pacos Ferreira** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Santa Clara |
2.65 |
3.72 |
-10.9 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.75 |
-6.4 |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.83 |
2.16 |
11.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.16 |
5.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
1.86 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (11 %, 5.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** at home**.

Santa Clara,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Sp Braga |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Feb |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** as a guest**.

Pacos Ferreira,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Guimaraes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Feb |
Portimonense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Feb |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Santa Clara** is **0.074** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.459.**

The home dynamic for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.588** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.304.**

The offensive ability for the **Santa Clara** is **0.116** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **0.145.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Santa Clara** is **-0.704** and for the **Pacos Ferreira** is **-0.256.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Santa Clara** and the red line for guest team, **Pacos Ferreira. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Santa Clara |
35% |
37% |
18% |
10% |

Pacos Ferreira |
24% |
32% |
25% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.08 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Santa Clara** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the guest team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |