# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Mirandes vs Malaga at 01 March 2021**** Sabadell vs Albacete at 26 February 2021**** Cartagena vs Leganes at 26 February 2021**** Castellon vs Las Palmas at 27 February 2021**** Almeria vs Lugo at 27 February 2021**** Vallecano vs Ponferradina at 27 February 2021**** Logrones vs Mallorca at 27 February 2021**** Tenerife vs Alcorcon at 28 February 2021**** Sp Gijon vs Espanol at 28 February 2021**** Oviedo vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021**** Fuenlabrada vs Girona at 28 February 2021**

###
Mirandes vs Malaga at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mirandes** and **Malaga** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **01 Mar 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mirandes |
2.32 |
2.21 |
2.1 |

Draw |
2.93 |
3.61 |
-6.4 |

Malaga |
3.40 |
3.70 |
-2.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.68 |
2.33 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.44 |
1.75 |
-12.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mirandes, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** at home**.

Mirandes,** at home**, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

19 Feb |
Ponferradina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Girona |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Malaga** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Malaga** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance** as a guest**.

Malaga,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Malaga scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Vallecano |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Ponferradina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Mirandes** is **0.148** and for the **Malaga** is **-0.148.**

The home dynamic for the **Mirandes** is **0.206** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Malaga** is **0.251.**

The offensive ability for the **Mirandes** is **0.227** and for the **Malaga** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Mirandes** is **-0.037** and for the **Malaga** is **-0.13.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mirandes** and the red line for guest team, **Malaga. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mirandes |
24% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Malaga |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Malaga** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.97** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Malaga** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Mirandes ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
3.90 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.69 |
3.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.17 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
4.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.71 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.56 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
5.84 |
3.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.90 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.84 |
3.24 |

####
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###
Sabadell vs Albacete at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sabadell** and **Albacete** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sabadell |
2.20 |
2.14 |
1.3 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.65 |
-4.6 |

Albacete |
3.52 |
3.86 |
-2.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.29 |
4.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.78 |
-8.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sabadell, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 4.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** at home**.

Sabadell,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Feb |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Albacete** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Albacete** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance** as a guest**.

Albacete,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Albacete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Sp Gijon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Feb |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Oviedo |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Alcorcon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Malaga |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Dec |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Sabadell** is **-0.022** and for the **Albacete** is **-0.111.**

The home dynamic for the **Sabadell** is **-0.5** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Albacete** is **-0.463.**

The offensive ability for the **Sabadell** is **0.167** and for the **Albacete** is **0.119.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sabadell** is **-0.333** and for the **Albacete** is **-0.283.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sabadell** and the red line for guest team, **Albacete. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sabadell |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |

Albacete |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.08** goals in the game and the home team **Sabadell ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Albacete** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Sabadell ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |

####
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###
Cartagena vs Leganes at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cartagena** and **Leganes** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **26 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cartagena |
3.51 |
2.57 |
10.4 |

Draw |
2.98 |
3.47 |
-4.7 |

Leganes |
2.30 |
3.10 |
-11.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.49 |
0.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
1.67 |
-6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cartagena, Over 2.5 (10.4 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cartagena** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cartagena** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance** at home**.

Cartagena,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Feb |
Vallecano |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Oviedo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Leganes** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leganes** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance** as a guest**.

Leganes,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leganes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Feb |
Almeria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

14 Feb |
Albacete |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Girona |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Lugo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Cartagena** is **-0.311** and for the **Leganes** is **0.726.**

The home dynamic for the **Cartagena** is **-0.363** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Leganes** is **-0.075.**

The offensive ability for the **Cartagena** is **-0.485** and for the **Leganes** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Cartagena** is **-0.333** and for the **Leganes** is **-0.13.**

###
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK **

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cartagena** and the red line for guest team, **Leganes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cartagena |
29% |
36% |
23% |
11% |

Leganes |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Leganes** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.29** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Leganes** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.05 |

1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
5.65 |

3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.49 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.05 |

5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.65 |

NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

2-3 goals |
2.45 |
3.80 |
3.05 |

4+ goals |
2.81 |
3.05 |
3.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.57 |
3.08 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.28 |
3.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.91 |
2.54 |

Un 2.5 |
2.95 |
2.60 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.81 |
3.05 |
3.16 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.57 |
3.08 |

Goal-Goal |
3.17 |
2.48 |
3.56 |

No Goal |
2.21 |
5.33 |
2.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.79 |
2.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.33 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Castellon vs Las Palmas at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Castellon** and **Las Palmas** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **27 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Castellon |
2.69 |
2.28 |
6.7 |

Draw |
2.85 |
3.56 |
-7.0 |

Las Palmas |
3.04 |
3.55 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.38 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.73 |
-9.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Castellon, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Castellon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Castellon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance** at home**.

Castellon,** at home**, had 5 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Castellon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

21 Feb |
Girona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Feb |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sabadell |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Las Palmas** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Las Palmas** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance** as a guest**.

Las Palmas,** as a guest**, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Feb |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Feb |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Feb |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Mirandes |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Leganes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Mallorca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Castellon** is **-0.704** and for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.037.**

The home dynamic for the **Castellon** is **-0.098** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.172.**

The offensive ability for the **Castellon** is **0.288** and for the **Las Palmas** is **0.207.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Castellon** is **-0.704** and for the **Las Palmas** is **-0.193.**

###
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Castellon** and the red line for guest team, **Las Palmas. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Castellon |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Las Palmas |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Castellon** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Las Palmas** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.28** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.28** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.55 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.69 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |