2021 02 26 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mirandes vs Malaga at 01 March 2021
Sabadell vs Albacete at 26 February 2021
Cartagena vs Leganes at 26 February 2021
Castellon vs Las Palmas at 27 February 2021
Almeria vs Lugo at 27 February 2021
Vallecano vs Ponferradina at 27 February 2021
Logrones vs Mallorca at 27 February 2021
Tenerife vs Alcorcon at 28 February 2021
Sp Gijon vs Espanol at 28 February 2021
Oviedo vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Girona at 28 February 2021


Mirandes vs Malaga at 01 Mar 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Malaga for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 01 Mar 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mirandes

2.32

2.21

2.1

Draw

2.93

3.61

-6.4

Malaga

3.40

3.70

-2.4

Over 2.5

2.68

2.33

5.6

Under 2.5

1.44

1.75

-12.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Ponferradina

A

0

1

L

U

N

13 Feb

Girona

H

3

3

D

O

G

07 Feb

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Las Palmas

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Cartagena

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Vallecano

H

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Logrones

A

1

2

L

O

G

21 Dec

Albacete

H

0

2

L

U

N


Malaga in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Malaga in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Malaga’s performance as a guest.
Malaga, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Malaga scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Malaga was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Vallecano

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Sp Gijon

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Ponferradina

H

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Albacete

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N


The form score for the Mirandes is 0.148 and for the Malaga is -0.148.
The home dynamic for the Mirandes is 0.206 and the dynamic as a guest for the Malaga is 0.251.
The offensive ability for the Mirandes is 0.227 and for the Malaga is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Mirandes is -0.037 and for the Malaga is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Malaga.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mirandes

24%

35%

25%

15%

Malaga

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.11 goals and Malaga to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.97 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.32 goals and Malaga to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sabadell vs Albacete at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sabadell

2.20

2.14

1.3

Draw

3.13

3.65

-4.6

Albacete

3.52

3.86

-2.5

Over 2.5

2.53

2.29

4.1

Under 2.5

1.54

1.78

-8.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Espanol

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Feb

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Las Palmas

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Almeria

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Jan

Lugo

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Jan

Girona

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G


Albacete in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Sp Gijon

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Feb

Leganes

A

1

3

L

O

G

05 Feb

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Oviedo

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Alcorcon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Mirandes

A

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Sabadell is -0.022 and for the Albacete is -0.111.
The home dynamic for the Sabadell is -0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Albacete is -0.463.
The offensive ability for the Sabadell is 0.167 and for the Albacete is 0.119.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sabadell is -0.333 and for the Albacete is -0.283.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sabadell

23%

35%

26%

16%

Albacete

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.21 goals and Albacete to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Sabadell to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.35 goals and Albacete to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sabadell to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.36

1

4.69

2-3

1.98

2

3.76

4+

5.00

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.35

Un 1.5

3.36

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.51

3.47

2-3 goals

2.02

3.94

3.97

4+ goals

2.17

3.28

4.26

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.72

4.05

Un 1.5

2.35

3.51

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.77

7.18

3.37

Un 2.5

2.55

2.65

4.34

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.28

4.26

Un 3.5

2.13

3.77

3.77

Goal-Goal

2.61

2.58

4.36

No Goal

1.83

6.05

3.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.93

5.90

3.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.05

3.35


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cartagena vs Leganes at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cartagena

3.51

2.57

10.4

Draw

2.98

3.47

-4.7

Leganes

2.30

3.10

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.52

2.49

0.5

Under 2.5

1.50

1.67

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (10.4 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Las Palmas

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Feb

Vallecano

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Oviedo

H

2

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Tenerife

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alcorcon

A

1

2

L

O

G


Leganes in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leganes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leganes’s performance as a guest.
Leganes, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leganes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leganes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Tenerife

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Feb

Almeria

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Feb

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Girona

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Lugo

H

3

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Las Palmas

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Fuenlabrada

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Cartagena is -0.311 and for the Leganes is 0.726.
The home dynamic for the Cartagena is -0.363 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leganes is -0.075.
The offensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.485 and for the Leganes is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Cartagena is -0.333 and for the Leganes is -0.13.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cartagena

29%

36%

23%

11%

Leganes

34%

36%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 0.88 goals and Leganes to score 1.17 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.17 goals and Leganes to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.70

4+

5.65

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.20

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.28

3.12

2-3 goals

2.45

3.80

3.05

4+ goals

2.81

3.05

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.57

3.08

Un 1.5

2.67

3.28

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.17

6.91

2.54

Un 2.5

2.95

2.60

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.81

3.05

3.16

Un 3.5

2.53

3.57

3.08

Goal-Goal

3.17

2.48

3.56

No Goal

2.21

5.33

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.79

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.31

5.33

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Castellon vs Las Palmas at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

2.69

2.28

6.7

Draw

2.85

3.56

-7.0

Las Palmas

3.04

3.55

-4.7

Over 2.5

2.61

2.38

3.7

Under 2.5

1.48

1.73

-9.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Castellon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Castellon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Castellon’s performance at home.
Castellon, at home, had 5 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Castellon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Castellon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

15 Feb

Fuenlabrada

H

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Sp Gijon

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Tenerife

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Sabadell

A

1

1

D

U

G


Las Palmas in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Las Palmas in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Las Palmas’s performance as a guest.
Las Palmas, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Las Palmas scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Las Palmas was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Cartagena

H

2

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Almeria

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Sabadell

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Mirandes

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Leganes

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Mallorca

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Espanol

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Castellon is -0.704 and for the Las Palmas is -0.037.
The home dynamic for the Castellon is -0.098 and the dynamic as a guest for the Las Palmas is -0.172.
The offensive ability for the Castellon is 0.288 and for the Las Palmas is 0.207.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Castellon is -0.704 and for the Las Palmas is -0.193.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

26%

35%

25%

14%

Las Palmas

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.05 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.28 goals and Las Palmas to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.21

1

4.55

2-3

2.01

2

3.75

4+

5.26

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.21

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.38

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-