2021 02 26 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Torino vs Sassuolo at 26 February 2021
Verona vs Juventus at 27 February 2021
Spezia vs Parma at 27 February 2021
Bologna vs Lazio at 27 February 2021
Sampdoria vs Atalanta at 28 February 2021
Udinese vs Fiorentina at 28 February 2021
Napoli vs Benevento at 28 February 2021
Inter vs Genoa at 28 February 2021
Crotone vs Cagliari at 28 February 2021
Roma vs Milan at 28 February 2021


Torino vs Sassuolo at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Sassuolo for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

3.37

2.82

5.8

Draw

3.32

3.58

-2.2

Sassuolo

2.26

2.72

-7.5

Over 2.5

1.81

2.07

-6.9

Under 2.5

2.03

1.93

2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torino, Under 2.5 (5.8 %, 2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Cagliari

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sassuolo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Sassuolo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sassuolo’s performance as a guest.
Sassuolo, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sassuolo scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sassuolo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Feb

Crotone

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Cagliari

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Jan

Parma

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Juventus

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Genoa

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Torino is 0.2 and for the Sassuolo is -0.133.
The home dynamic for the Torino is -0.52 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sassuolo is 0.471.
The offensive ability for the Torino is 0.253 and for the Sassuolo is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Torino is 0.037 and for the Sassuolo is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Sassuolo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

34%

20%

35%

11%

Sassuolo

35%

20%

30%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.14 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Sassuolo to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.23 goals and Sassuolo to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.94

1

7.30

2-3

2.07

2

3.82

4+

3.80

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.94

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.30

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.58

2.17

3.85

2-3 goals

2.12

12.07

2.25

4+ goals

4.78

2.16

3.06

Ov 1.5

2.64

4.60

2.48

Un 1.5

3.58

2.17

3.85

Ov 2.5

2.99

3.97

2.42

Un 2.5

2.69

3.29

3.09

Ov 3.5

4.78

2.16

3.06

Un 3.5

2.46

4.69

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.50

2.68

2.93

No Goal

2.46

4.84

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.18

3.23

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.48

4.84

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Verona vs Juventus at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Verona and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Verona

6.28

2.65

21.8

Draw

4.21

3.80

2.6

Juventus

1.57

2.79

-27.9

Over 2.5

1.76

1.98

-6.3

Under 2.5

2.14

2.02

2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Verona, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.8 %, 2.6 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Verona in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Verona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Verona’s performance at home.
Verona, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Verona scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Verona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Genoa

A

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Parma

H

2

1

W

O

G

07 Feb

Udinese

A

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Roma

A

1

3

L

O

G

24 Jan

Napoli

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Bologna

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Crotone

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

22 Feb

Crotone

H

3

0

W

O

N

13 Feb

Napoli

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Sassuolo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Milan

A

3

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Verona is -0.133 and for the Juventus is 0.356.
The home dynamic for the Verona is -0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Juventus is 0.621.
The offensive ability for the Verona is 0.288 and for the Juventus is 0.233.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Verona is -1 and for the Juventus is 0.641.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Verona and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Verona

28%

30%

26%

16%

Juventus

29%

31%

23%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Verona to score 0.74 goals and Juventus to score 2.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Verona to score 1.29 goals and Juventus to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.88

1

5.71

2-3

2.08

2

4.22

4+

3.82

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.88

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.11

3.00

2-3 goals

2.34

5.16

2.64

4+ goals

3.12

3.01

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.57

4.12

2.72

Un 1.5

2.90

3.11

3.00

Ov 2.5

2.39

5.80

2.44

Un 2.5

2.96

2.81

3.26

Ov 3.5

3.12

3.01

2.88

Un 3.5

2.51

4.19

2.75

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.82

3.13

No Goal

2.31

5.94

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

4.76

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

5.94

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Parma at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Parma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

2.44

2.18

4.9

Draw

3.17

3.68

-4.4

Parma

3.13

3.72

-5.1

Over 2.5

2.03

2.09

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.81

1.92

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia (4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

19 Feb

Fiorentina

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Feb

Milan

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Jan

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Jan

Sampdoria

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Napoli

A

2

1

W

O

G


Parma in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Parma in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Parma’s performance as a guest.
Parma, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 18.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Parma scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Parma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

15 Feb

Verona

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Feb

Bologna

H

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Napoli

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

Sampdoria

H

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Lazio

H

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Atalanta

A

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Spezia is -0.148 and for the Parma is -0.667.
The home dynamic for the Spezia is -0.549 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is -0.348.
The offensive ability for the Spezia is -0.142 and for the Parma is -0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spezia is -0.356 and for the Parma is -1.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Parma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

27%

21%

36%

16%

Parma

41%

21%

29%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.32 goals and Parma to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.42 goals and Parma to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Spezia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

3.97

1

7.09

2-3

2.02

2

3.72

4+

3.98

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.97

5

12.50

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.34

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

1.75

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.93

2.27

4.58

2-3 goals

1.70

11.53

3.06

4+ goals

3.10

2.13

4.83

Ov 1.5

2.01

4.64

3.49

Un 1.5

2.93

2.27

4.58

Ov 2.5

2.14

4.05

3.49

Un 2.5

2.22

3.38

3.95

Ov 3.5

3.10

2.13

4.83

Un 3.5

1.98

4.86

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.66

3.82

No Goal

1.88

5.14

3.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

3.26

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

5.14

3.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bologna vs Lazio at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Lazio for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bologna

3.55

2.64

9.7

Draw

3.60

3.52

0.6

Lazio

2.06

2.97

-14.9

Over 2.5

1.76

1.97

-6.1

Under 2.5

2.10

2.03

1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bologna, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 0.6 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bologna in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Sassuolo

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Feb

Benevento

H

1

1

D

U

G

07 Feb

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G


Lazio in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lazio in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lazio’s performance as a guest.
Lazio, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lazio scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lazio was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

14 Feb

Inter

A

1

3

L

O

G

07 Feb

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Jan

Atalanta

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sassuolo

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Roma

H

3

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Parma

A

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Fiorentina

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Bologna is 0 and for the Lazio is 0.63.
The home dynamic for the Bologna is 0.088 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lazio is 0.304.
The offensive ability for the Bologna is 0.657 and for the Lazio is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Bologna is -0.385 and for the Lazio is 0.229.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Lazio.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bologna

33%

12%

44%

12%

Lazio

34%

21%

29%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.1 goals and Lazio to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Lazio to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.34 goals and Lazio to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.85

0-1

4.50

1

9.17

2-3

2.05

2

3.69

4+

3.45

3

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.50

5

9.90

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

3.45

NoG

1.79