2021 02 26 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Empoli vs Venezia at 26 February 2021
Reggiana vs Salernitana at 26 February 2021
Virtus Entella vs Brescia at 27 February 2021
Spal vs Reggina at 27 February 2021
Pordenone vs Ascoli at 27 February 2021
Monza vs Cittadella at 27 February 2021
Cremonese vs Frosinone at 27 February 2021
Cosenza vs Chievo at 27 February 2021
Pescara vs Lecce at 27 February 2021


Empoli vs Venezia at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Empoli and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Empoli

2.13

2.19

-1.3

Draw

3.14

3.62

-4.2

Venezia

3.49

3.75

-2.0

Over 2.5

2.13

2.28

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.71

1.78

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Empoli in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance at home.
Empoli, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Pisa

A

1

1

D

U

G

13 Feb

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Pescara

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Frosinone

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Salernitana

H

5

0

W

O

N

04 Jan

Cosenza

A

2

0

W

U

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 4 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pordenone

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Empoli is 0.148 and for the Venezia is 0.852.
The home dynamic for the Empoli is 0.598 and the dynamic as a guest for the Venezia is 0.233.
The offensive ability for the Empoli is 1 and for the Venezia is 0.648.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Empoli is -1 and for the Venezia is 0.139.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Empoli and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Empoli

22%

38%

24%

16%

Venezia

36%

37%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.36 goals and Venezia to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.34 goals and Venezia to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.37

1

4.61

2-3

2.00

2

3.77

4+

4.93

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.37

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.71

3.62

2-3 goals

2.15

3.62

3.87

4+ goals

2.31

3.44

3.62

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.56

3.79

Un 1.5

2.20

3.71

3.62

Ov 2.5

1.87

7.41

3.03

Un 2.5

2.54

2.58

4.57

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.44

3.62

Un 3.5

2.17

3.65

3.77

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.52

4.01

No Goal

1.80

6.28

3.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

6.08

2.90

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.28

3.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reggiana vs Salernitana at 26 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reggiana and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 26 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reggiana

2.96

2.49

6.4

Draw

2.99

3.55

-5.3

Salernitana

2.60

3.16

-6.8

Over 2.5

2.30

2.25

1.0

Under 2.5

1.62

1.80

-6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reggiana, Over 2.5 (6.4 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reggiana in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggiana in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reggiana’s performance at home.
Reggiana, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggiana scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggiana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Cittadella

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Feb

Chievo

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Jan

Spal

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Cittadella

H

0

2

L

U

N


Salernitana in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance as a guest.
Salernitana, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Ascoli

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Feb

Vicenza

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Pisa

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Reggina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Empoli

A

0

5

L

O

N

04 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Reggiana is 0.356 and for the Salernitana is 0.333.
The home dynamic for the Reggiana is -0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Salernitana is 0.084.
The offensive ability for the Reggiana is 0.253 and for the Salernitana is 0.648.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Reggiana is -0.237 and for the Salernitana is 0.166.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reggiana and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reggiana

26%

34%

28%

12%

Salernitana

30%

40%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.05 goals and Salernitana to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reggiana to score 1.25 goals and Salernitana to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.51

1

4.83

2-3

1.95

2

3.68

4+

4.95

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.30

Un 1.5

3.51

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.95

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

3.65

2.71

2-3 goals

2.22

3.74

3.54

4+ goals

2.93

3.01

3.06

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.50

3.39

Un 1.5

2.79

3.65

2.71

Ov 2.5

2.05

6.61

2.77

Un 2.5

2.99

2.59

3.57

Ov 3.5

2.93

3.01

3.06

Un 3.5

2.40

3.71

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.85

2.54

3.92

No Goal

2.19

6.18

2.62

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.09

5.69

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.18

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Virtus Entella vs Brescia at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

2.71

2.62

1.3

Draw

3.04

3.64

-5.4

Brescia

2.69

2.92

-2.9

Over 2.5

1.96

2.16

-4.7

Under 2.5

1.85

1.87

-0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Virtus Entella (1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Venezia

A

2

3

L

O

G

14 Feb

Frosinone

H

2

3

L

O

G

10 Feb

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

07 Feb

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Cosenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Pisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

15 Jan

Chievo

A

1

2

L

O

G

04 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N


Brescia in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G

14 Feb

Chievo

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Feb

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cittadella

H

3

3

D

O

G

30 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Jan

Vicenza

H

0

3

L

O

N


The form score for the Virtus Entella is -0.726 and for the Brescia is -0.296.
The home dynamic for the Virtus Entella is -0.461 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brescia is 0.066.
The offensive ability for the Virtus Entella is 0.597 and for the Brescia is 0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Virtus Entella is -1 and for the Brescia is -0.552.

Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

26%

36%

26%

12%

Brescia

30%

34%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.24 goals and Brescia to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.24 goals and Brescia to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.61

1

5.03

2-3

2.01

2

3.86

4+

4.46

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.61

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.55

3.11

2-3 goals

2.43

3.98

2.96

4+ goals

3.39

3.11

2.60

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.66

2.84

Un 1.5

2.52

3.55

3.11

Ov 2.5

2.41

6.43

2.33

Un 2.5

2.84

2.64

3.72

Ov 3.5

3.39

3.11

2.60

Un 3.5

2.46

3.82

3.02

Goal-Goal

3.31

2.62

3.17

No Goal

2.15

6.19

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.51

5.43

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.19

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spal vs Reggina at 27 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Reggina for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.11

2.10

0.2

Draw

3.08

3.68

-5.3

Reggina

3.68

3.97

-2.0

Over 2.5

2.22

2.30

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.64

1.77

-4.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal (0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

2

D

O

G

13 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Feb

Pordenone

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Cremonese

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Jan

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G


Reggina in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reggina in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reggina’s performance as a guest.
Reggina, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reggina scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reggina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

21 Feb

Pordenone

H

1

0

W

U

N

15 Feb

Cosenza

A

2

2

D

O

G

10 Feb

Virtus Entella

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Lecce

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Spal is -0.17 and for the Reggina is 0.533.
The home dynamic for the Spal is 0.529 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reggina is -0.084.
The offensive ability for the Spal is 1 and for the Reggina is 0.648.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Spal is -1 and for the Reggina is 0.641.

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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Reggina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

20%

44%

17%

19%

Reggina

40%

33%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.34 goals and Reggina to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.37 goals and Reggina to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.82

0-1

3.16

1

4.20

2-3

2.07

2

4.00

4+

4.93

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.16

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.30

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-