Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Apollon vs OFI Crete at 27 February 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 27 February 2021
Aris vs Atromitos at 28 February 2021
Lamia vs Giannina at 28 February 2021
Larisa vs Panetolikos at 28 February 2021
Panathinaikos vs AEK at 28 February 2021
Apollon vs OFI Crete at 27 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Apollon |
2.46 |
2.51 |
-0.8 |
|
Draw |
2.86 |
3.48 |
-6.2 |
|
OFI Crete |
3.13 |
3.17 |
-0.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.53 |
-7.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.65 |
0.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Apollon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Atromitos |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
OFI Crete in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance as a guest.
OFI Crete, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Feb |
Volos NFC |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Apollon is -0.496 and for the OFI Crete is -1.
The home dynamic for the Apollon is -0.941 and the dynamic as a guest for the OFI Crete is -0.004.
The offensive ability for the Apollon is -0.202 and for the OFI Crete is -0.938.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Apollon is -1 and for the OFI Crete is -1.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Apollon |
30% |
37% |
20% |
14% |
|
OFI Crete |
36% |
33% |
25% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.24 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.18 goals and OFI Crete to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
9.43 |
0-1 |
2.97 |
|
1 |
4.33 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.88 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
|
4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
2.97 |
|
5 |
22.22 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |
|
6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.66 |
|
Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.88 |
|
NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.55 |
3.18 |
3.40 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.64 |
4.02 |
2.68 |
|
4+ goals |
2.12 |
2.93 |
5.31 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.67 |
3.07 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.55 |
3.18 |
3.40 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.79 |
2.79 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.65 |
3.49 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
2.93 |
5.31 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.63 |
2.94 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.50 |
3.63 |
|
No Goal |
2.17 |
5.17 |
2.88 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.66 |
2.65 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.17 |
2.79 |
Go to Top
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK at 27 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 27 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
5.85 |
2.34 |
25.6 |
|
Draw |
4.01 |
3.37 |
4.7 |
|
PAOK |
1.52 |
3.64 |
-38.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
3.13 |
-19.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.47 |
14.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.6 %, 4.7 %, 14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Feb |
AEK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance as a guest.
PAOK, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Lamia |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
15 Feb |
Giannina |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
Apollon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
24 Jan |
AEK |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The form score for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.615 and for the PAOK is 0.393.
The home dynamic for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.343 and the dynamic as a guest for the PAOK is 0.172.
The offensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.571 and for the PAOK is 0.648.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.281 and for the PAOK is 0.318.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, PAOK.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
35% |
28% |
29% |
7% |
|
PAOK |
46% |
33% |
11% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 0.68 goals and PAOK to score 1.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team PAOK to win by 1.12 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.08 goals and PAOK to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 1.92 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
6.10 |
0-1 |
2.42 |
|
1 |
4.02 |
2-3 |
2.16 |
|
2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
8.00 |
|
3 |
5.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.70 |
|
4 |
12.20 |
Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
|
5 |
27.78 |
Ov 2.5 |
3.12 |
|
6+ |
142.86 |
Un 2.5 |
1.47 |
|
Gg |
2.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
8.00 |
|
NoG |
1.53 |
Un 3.5 |
1.14 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.15 |
2.52 |
3.50 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.94 |
4.50 |
|
4+ goals |
4.03 |
3.21 |
2.27 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.98 |
4.43 |
3.73 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |
2.52 |
3.50 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
8.21 |
2.69 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.64 |
4.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
3.21 |
2.27 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.40 |
3.97 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.62 |
4.05 |
|
No Goal |
2.18 |
3.99 |
3.44 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.51 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
3.99 |
3.75 |
Go to Top
Aris vs Atromitos at 28 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 28 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Aris |
1.55 |
2.02 |
-15.0 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.61 |
-0.8 |
|
Atromitos |
6.11 |
4.41 |
6.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.50 |
-5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.67 |
-1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos (6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Aris in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Feb |
Panetolikos |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Feb |
AEK |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Atromitos in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Feb |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
AEK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The form score for the Aris is 0.296 and for the Atromitos is -0.333.
The home dynamic for the Aris is 0.108 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atromitos is -0.286.
The offensive ability for the Aris is 0.571 and for the Atromitos is 0.674.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Aris is 0.281 and for the Atromitos is -0.614.
Find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my new book MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Aris |
32% |
26% |
18% |
24% |
|
Atromitos |
48% |
33% |
14% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.61 goals and Atromitos to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.34 goals and Atromitos to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
6.54 |
0-1 |
2.60 |
|
1 |
4.31 |
2-3 |
2.27 |
|
2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
5.75 |
|
3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
|
4 |
8.40 |
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
|
5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.67 |
|
Gg |
2.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.75 |
|
NoG |
1.55 |
Un 3.5 |
1.21 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.08 |
2.52 |
3.60 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.72 |
5.01 |
4.55 |
|
4+ goals |
1.53 |
4.70 |
7.57 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.66 |
4.92 |
5.13 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.08 |
2.52 |
3.60 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.39 |
10.81 |
5.26 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
2.49 |
3.97 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.53 |
4.70 |
7.57 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.43 |
4.05 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.07 |
2.85 |
6.03 |
|
No Goal |
1.99 |
4.21 |
3.83 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.56 |
7.24 |
4.54 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.46 |
4.21 |
3.39 |
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Lamia vs Giannina at 28 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Giannina for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 28 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lamia |
2.44 |
3.02 |
-7.9 |
|
Draw |
3.10 |
3.60 |
-4.5 |
|
Giannina |
3.10 |
2.56 |
6.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.78 |
2.36 |
6.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.46 |
1.74 |
-11.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Giannina, Over 2.5 (6.8 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lamia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Feb |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
18 Feb |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Giannina in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Giannina in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Giannina’s performance as a guest.
Giannina, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Giannina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Giannina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
21 Feb |
OFI Crete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Feb |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Feb |
Panetolikos |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
AEK |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The form score for the Lamia is 0.319 and for the Giannina is 0.037.
The home dynamic for the Lamia is -0.755 and the dynamic as a guest for the Giannina is -0.154.
The offensive ability for the Lamia is -0.142 and for the Giannina is -0.145.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Lamia is 0.63 and for the Giannina is -0.166.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Giannina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lamia |
37% |
28% |
24% |
10% |
|
Giannina |
31% |
32% |
25% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.06 goals and Giannina to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.08 goals and Giannina to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.77 |
0-1 |
3.13 |
|
1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
5.03 |
|
3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.13 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
Gg |
2.29 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.03 |
|
NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.67 |
2.80 |
2.70 |