2021 02 27 German BBL



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bonn vs Rasta Vechta at 27 February 2021
Ulm vs Mitteldeutscher at 27 February 2021
Giessen 46ers vs Bayreuth at 27 February 2021
Hamburg Towers vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 28 February 2021
Alba Berlin vs Crailsheim Merlins at 28 February 2021
Brose Bamberg vs Skyliners Frankfurt at 28 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Bonn vs Rasta Vechta at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bonn and Rasta Vechta for German BBL, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bonn

1.36

1.90

Rasta Vechta

3.2

2.12

Bonn HC

-6.5

-1.50

Rasta Vechta HC

+6.5

1.50

Point Line

166.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bonn are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

H

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

83

66

5

11

78

66

Feb 12

A

Hamburg Towers

W

78

71

4

11

82

70

Jan 31

A

Fraport Skyliners

L

79

84

3

11

81

91

Jan 24

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

84

93

3

10

86

86

Jan 15

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

92

93

3

9

87

96

Jan 9

H

s.Oliver Baskets

L

77

89

3

8

75

94

Jan 2

A

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

72

73

3

7

77

70

Dec 27

H

BG Goettingen

W

102

87

3

6

93

90

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Rasta Vechta are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

71

80

3

16

67

79

Feb 12

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

66

84

3

15

71

79

Feb 10

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

77

89

3

14

73

92

Feb 6

H

Fraport Skyliners

L

72

96

3

13

74

104

Jan 31

A

ALBA Berlin

L

70

86

3

12

78

85

Jan 22

A

BG Goettingen

W

102

90

2

11

93

93

Jan 16

H

Giessen 46ers

W

97

84

1

11

84

83

Jan 8

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

W

90

82

1

11

93

83

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bonn and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Rasta Vechta.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Rasta Vechta and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bonn.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bonn (in the first graph) and by Rasta Vechta in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bonn will expected to score 83 points and the Rasta Vechta 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bonn

Rasta Vechta

FG%

0.53

0.52

ASS

16.50

17.80

DRB

22.60

21.30

AST-TO

1.20

1.14

TRB

30.50

30.20

FTM

13.10

16.30

BL

1.70

1.90

FTA

17.30

20.90

PF-Fewer

21.10

21.70

ST

6.80

5.40

TO-Fewer

13.80

15.60

Ftper

0.76

0.78

ORBper

0.35

0.42

ORB

7.90

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ulm vs Mitteldeutscher at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ulm and Mitteldeutscher for German BBL, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ulm

1.1

1.48

Mitteldeutscher

7

3.07

Ulm HC

-12.5

-5.50

Mitteldeutscher HC

+12.5

5.50

Point Line

174.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ulm are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

A

Fraport Skyliners

W

87

68

12

7

89

73

Feb 12

H

BG Goettingen

W

93

64

11

7

85

66

Feb 9

H

Bayern Munich

L

77

81

10

7

83

78

Feb 7

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

L

92

94

10

6

87

93

Feb 2

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

80

76

10

5

82

82

Jan 29

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

104

92

9

5

98

92

Jan 24

H

BV Chemnitz 99

W

102

63

8

5

97

65

Jan 17

A

BG Goettingen

W

98

74

7

5

89

77

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mitteldeutscher are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

A

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

66

83

5

11

67

87

Feb 3

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

80

95

5

10

82

96

Jan 29

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

L

92

104

5

9

98

100

Jan 23

H

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

80

93

5

8

86

87

Jan 17

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

79

87

5

7

80

78

Jan 14

A

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

104

91

5

6

98

90

Jan 2

H

Fraport Skyliners

L

89

94

4

6

91

101

Dec 30

A

BV Chemnitz 99

L

79

96

4

5

75

99

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ulm and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mitteldeutscher.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mitteldeutscher and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ulm.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ulm (in the first graph) and by Mitteldeutscher in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ulm will expected to score 87 points and the Mitteldeutscher 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ulm

Mitteldeutscher

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

17.80

17.30

DRB

21.80

21.20

AST-TO

1.32

1.15

TRB

28.50

31.70

FTM

20.80

14.90

BL

2.30

3.00

FTA

24.40

18.60

PF-Fewer

19.90

22.00

ST

6.90

7.10

TO-Fewer

13.50

15.00

Ftper

0.86

0.80

ORBper

0.30

0.49

ORB

6.60

10.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Giessen 46ers vs Bayreuth at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Giessen 46ers and Bayreuth for German BBL, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Giessen 46ers

2.3

3.10

Bayreuth

1.63

1.48

Giessen 46ers HC

+2.5

5.50

Bayreuth HC

-2.5

-5.50

Point Line

178.5

174.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Giessen 46ers are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

H

Hamburg Towers

L

78

95

3

15

82

94

Feb 12

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

97

93

3

14

98

83

Feb 6

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

82

101

2

14

84

94

Jan 30

A

MHP RIESEN Ludwigsburg

L

85

99

2

13

91

93

Jan 23

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

82

97

2

12

82

87

Jan 16

A

SC Rasta Vechta

L

84

97

2

11

81

103

Jan 10

A

ALBA Berlin

L

82

92

2

10

91

91

Jan 2

H

BG Goettingen

L

90

92

2

9

82

95

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayreuth are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

H

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

82

91

6

13

82

82

Feb 12

A

ALBA Berlin

L

68

80

6

12

76

79

Feb 10

H

BG Goettingen

L

80

82

6

11

73

85

Feb 5

A

Hamburg Towers

W

95

92

6

10

100

91

Jan 30

A

BV Chemnitz 99

W

83

61

5

10

79

63

Jan 23

H

Bayern Munich

L

78

98

4

10

84

94

Jan 16

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

L

77

82

4

9

79

76

Jan 9

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

73

80

4

8

73

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Giessen 46ers and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayreuth.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayreuth and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Giessen 46ers.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Giessen 46ers (in the first graph) and by Bayreuth in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Giessen 46ers will expected to score 85 points and the Bayreuth 88 points. The total points line estimated to be at 173.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Giessen 46ers

Bayreuth

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

17.30

18.90

DRB

20.70

21.70

AST-TO

1.19

1.32

TRB

30.00

28.60

FTM

11.60

14.60

BL

2.70

2.10

FTA

14.20

18.70

PF-Fewer

21.30

17.60

ST

5.70

6.70

TO-Fewer

14.50

14.30

Ftper

0.81

0.78

ORBper

0.45

0.32

ORB

9.30

6.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Hamburg Towers vs Riesen Ludwigsburg at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Hamburg Towers and Riesen Ludwigsburg for German BBL, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Hamburg Towers

2.55

4.27

Riesen Ludwigsburg

1.53

1.31

Hamburg Towers HC

+4.5

7.50

Riesen Ludwigsburg HC

-4.5

-7.50

Point Line

164.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Hamburg Towers are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

A

Giessen 46ers

W

95

78

10

7

82

77

Feb 12

H

Telekom Baskets Bonn

L

71

78

9

7

72

82

Feb 10

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

L

88

89

9

6

88

80

Feb 5

H

Medi Bayreuth

L

92

95

9

5

89

98

Jan 23

H

Fraport Skyliners

W

98

70

9

4

100

76

Jan 17

A

Bayern Munich

L

71

85

8

4

77

82

Jan 10

H

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

W

89

72

8

3

91

67

Jan 2

H

SC Rasta Vechta

W

92

74

7

3

89

79

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Riesen Ludwigsburg are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 12

A

SC Rasta Vechta

W

84

66

17

1

81

70

Feb 10

H

Basketball Lowen Braunschweig

W

81

74

16

1

76

73

Feb 7

A

EWE Baskets Oldenburg

W

89

75

15

1

90

67

Jan 30

H

Giessen 46ers

W

99

85

14

1

86

84

Jan 23

A

Mitteldeutscher BC

W

93

80

13

1

87

80

Jan 16

H

Brose Baskets Bamberg

W

83

75

12

1

85

76

Jan 9

H

Ratiopharm Ulm

W

89

87

11

1

95

83

Jan 2

A

Medi Bayreuth

W

89

70

10

1

86

72

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Hamburg Towers and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Riesen Ludwigsburg.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Riesen Ludwigsburg and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Hamburg Towers.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Hamburg Towers (in the first graph) and by Riesen Ludwigsburg in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Hamburg Towers will expected to score 81 points and the Riesen Ludwigsburg 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Hamburg Towers

Riesen Ludwigsburg

FG%

0.55

0.55

ASS

18.80

16.30

DRB

20.90

20.90

AST-TO

1.50

1.65

TRB

29.70

29.90

FTM

14.90

15.30

BL

1.60

2.10

FTA

20.30

21.10

PF-Fewer

21.10

19.90

ST

9.50

8.20

TO-Fewer

12.50

9.90

Ftper

0.74

0.73

ORBper

0.42

0.43

ORB

8.80

9.00


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Alba Berlin vs Crailsheim Merlins at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alba Berlin and Crailsheim Merlins for German BBL, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Alba Berlin

1.24

1.30

Crailsheim Merlins

4.15

4.33

Alba Berlin HC

-8.5

-7.50

Crailsheim Merlins HC

+8.5

7.50

Point Line

170.5

162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

A

Brose Baskets Bamberg

L

67

76

15

2

69

77

Feb 12

H

Medi Bayreuth

W

80

68

15

1

78

70

Feb 9

A

HARKO Merlins Crailsheim

W

101

77

14

1

103

71