2021 02 27 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mesologgi BC vs Peristeri at 27 February 2021
Larissa BC vs PAOK at 28 February 2021
Iraklis vs Ionikos Nikaias at 28 February 2021
Panathinaikos vs Aris at 28 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Mesologgi BC vs Peristeri at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Mesologgi BC and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Mesologgi BC

2.8

3.22

Peristeri

1.44

1.45

Mesologgi BC HC

+5.5

5.50

Peristeri HC

-5.5

-5.50

Point Line

149.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

85

100

4

10

L 1

80

100

Jan 30

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

87

77

4

9

W 1

88

76

Jan 23

A

Aris

L

48

77

3

9

L 9

46

77

Jan 9

A

P.A.O.K.

L

87

96

3

8

L 8

83

95

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

82

92

Dec 27

A

Larisa

L

58

84

3

6

L 6

55

86

Dec 20

H

Panathinaikos

L

66

73

3

5

L 5

72

64

Dec 12

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

87

3

4

L 4

72

83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Peristeri are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

A

AEK Athens

L

59

91

8

6

L 1

65

87

Jan 30

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

70

8

5

W 1

81

70

Jan 23

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

65

80

7

5

L 1

66

78

Jan 9

A

Aris

W

84

71

7

4

W 2

80

71

Jan 3

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

67

6

4

W 1

72

66

Dec 26

A

Promitheas Patras

L

58

75

5

4

L 1

58

79

Dec 19

H

Larisa

W

82

78

5

3

W 1

78

79

Dec 13

A

Panathinaikos

L

57

76

4

3

L 2

62

67

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Peristeri.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Peristeri and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Mesologgi BC (in the first graph) and by Peristeri in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Mesologgi BC will expected to score 73 points and the Peristeri 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Mesologgi BC

Peristeri

FG%

0.52

0.48

ASS

16.20

16.00

DRB

22.90

24.40

AST-TO

1.09

1.22

TRB

29.60

32.60

FTM

13.60

16.70

BL

1.60

2.40

FTA

18.90

21.10

PF-Fewer

19.50

20.20

ST

5.90

5.50

TO-Fewer

14.90

13.10

Ftper

0.72

0.79

ORBper

0.29

0.34

ORB

6.60

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Larissa BC vs PAOK at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Larissa BC and PAOK for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Larissa BC

1.85

2.32

PAOK

1.97

1.76

Larissa BC HC

-1.5

2.50

PAOK HC

+1.5

-2.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

A

Promitheas Patras

L

63

81

4

10

L 1

63

85

Jan 30

H

AEK Athens

W

76

75

4

9

W 1

83

72

Jan 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

89

98

3

9

L 2

96

87

Jan 11

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

58

66

3

8

L 1

60

63

Jan 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

85

81

3

7

W 1

85

85

Jan 2

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

69

73

2

7

L 1

70

79

Dec 27

H

Messolonghi

W

84

58

2

6

W 1

80

61

Dec 19

A

Peristeri

L

78

82

1

6

L 3

79

85

The latest results and the adjusted scores of PAOK are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

77

84

6

7

L 2

79

80

Jan 27

A

AEK Athens

L

56

76

6

6

L 1

61

72

Jan 23

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

79

72

6

5

W 2

80

78

Jan 9

H

Messolonghi

W

96

87

5

5

W 1

92

91

Jan 3

A

Peristeri

L

67

76

4

5

L 1

68

79

Dec 27

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

86

84

4

4

W 3

81

84

Dec 19

A

Kolossos Rodou

W

85

84

3

4

W 2

86

82

Dec 13

H

Aris

W

75

64

2

4

W 1

71

64

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by PAOK.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by PAOK and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Larissa BC (in the first graph) and by PAOK in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Larissa BC will expected to score 78 points and the PAOK 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Larissa BC

PAOK

FG%

0.54

0.54

ASS

13.90

14.40

DRB

22.40

22.30

AST-TO

0.89

0.99

TRB

31.00

29.80

FTM

13.60

14.00

BL

1.60

1.70

FTA

18.10

18.20

PF-Fewer

22.10

23.50

ST

6.40

7.50

TO-Fewer

15.60

14.50

Ftper

0.75

0.77

ORBper

0.38

0.34

ORB

8.60

7.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Iraklis vs Ionikos Nikaias at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Iraklis and Ionikos Nikaias for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Iraklis

1.33

2.75

Ionikos Nikaias

3.35

1.57

Iraklis HC

-6.5

4.50

Ionikos Nikaias HC

+6.5

-4.50

Point Line

153.5

147.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

61

84

5

8

L 3

62

82

Jan 23

A

P.A.O.K.

L

72

79

5

7

L 2

68

78

Jan 10

A

Promitheas Patras

L

61

85

5

6

L 1

61

89

Jan 2

H

Larisa

W

73

69

5

5

W 1

69

70

Dec 27

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

106

4

5

L 3

80

94

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

62

73

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

79

75

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

68

71

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Messolonghi

W

100

85

5

9

W 1

96

89

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

71

90

Jan 23

A

AEK Athens

L

74

81

4

8

L 2

81

77

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

75

92

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

65

64

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

80

85

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

86

81

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

92

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Iraklis (in the first graph) and by Ionikos Nikaias in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Iraklis will expected to score 75 points and the Ionikos Nikaias 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 151.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Iraklis

Ionikos Nikaias

FG%

0.50

0.51

ASS

14.40

14.70

DRB

24.30

22.00

AST-TO

1.01

1.07

TRB

31.70

30.40

FTM

13.20

12.40

BL

2.30

1.40

FTA

18.80

16.20

PF-Fewer

21.80

20.30

ST

5.80

7.60

TO-Fewer

14.20

13.80

Ftper

0.70

0.76

ORBper

0.30

0.38

ORB

7.40

8.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Panathinaikos vs Aris at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Aris for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Panathinaikos

0.03

1.51

Aris

12

2.96

Panathinaikos HC

-22.5

-5.00

Aris HC

+22.5

5.00

Point Line

161.5

151.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Panathinaikos are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

H

Promitheas Patras

L

78

80

10

2

L 1

78

84

Jan 24

A

Larisa

W

98

89

10

1

W 3

93

91

Jan 17

A

Aris

W

93

75

9

1

W 2

88

75

Jan 10

H

AEK Athens

W

80

75

8

1

W 1

88

72

Jan 3

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

82

92

7

1

L 1

84

88

Dec 27

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

106

74

7

0

W 6

107

80

Dec 20

A

Messolonghi

W

73

66

6

0

W 5

70

69

Dec 13

H

Peristeri

W

76

57

5

0

W 4

77

59

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

89

94

4

9

L 1

92

89

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

74

50

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

81

82

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

72

88

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

60

68

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

75

82

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

73

80

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

84

86

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Panathinaikos and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Panathinaikos.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Panathinaikos (in the first graph) and by Aris in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Panathinaikos will expected to score 82 points and the Aris 74 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Panathinaikos

Aris

FG%

0.58

0.52

ASS

19.30

13.20

DRB

25.00

21.30

AST-TO

1.26

0.98

TRB

35.70

30.70

FTM

15.80

16.90

BL

3.20

1.80

FTA

19.80

23.10

PF-Fewer

20.40

22.00

ST

7.30

8.30

TO-Fewer

15.30

13.50

Ftper

0.80

0.73

ORBper

0.43

0.44

ORB

10.70

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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