2021 02 27 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassari vs Reyer Venezia at 27 February 2021
Virtus Bologna vs Varese at 27 February 2021
Brindisi vs Trieste at 27 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Sassari vs Reyer Venezia at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassari and Reyer Venezia for Serie A, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Sassari

1.47

1.55

Reyer Venezia

2.7

2.83

Sassari HC

-4.5

-4.50

Reyer Venezia HC

+4.5

4.50

Point Line

171.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 6

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

89

79

13

5

W 7

90

81

Jan 24

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

103

82

12

5

W 6

106

82

Jan 17

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

99

74

11

5

W 5

100

72

Jan 10

H

Red October Cantu

W

98

92

10

5

W 4

96

94

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

86

84

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

98

86

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

88

72

Dec 20

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

86

102

6

5

L 1

94

92

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Reyer Venezia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

H

Red October Cantu

W

80

75

13

6

W 6

79

77

Jan 31

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

65

12

6

W 5

79

63

Jan 24

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

84

11

6

W 4

82

81

Jan 17

A

Enel Brindisi

W

89

77

10

6

W 3

92

72

Jan 10

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

95

75

9

6

W 2

96

80

Jan 3

A

Universo Treviso

W

88

86

8

6

W 1

80

82

Dec 27

A

Fortitudo Bologna

L

72

76

7

6

L 1

73

78

Dec 23

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

81

66

7

5

W 2

83

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Reyer Venezia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Reyer Venezia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Sassari (in the first graph) and by Reyer Venezia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Sassari will expected to score 84 points and the Reyer Venezia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Sassari

Reyer Venezia

FG%

0.58

0.54

ASS

19.20

17.50

DRB

25.30

25.30

AST-TO

1.39

1.30

TRB

33.30

33.90

FTM

17.60

11.80

BL

1.90

2.70

FTA

22.90

17.40

PF-Fewer

18.50

21.60

ST

8.10

6.50

TO-Fewer

13.80

13.50

Ftper

0.77

0.68

ORBper

0.31

0.34

ORB

7.90

8.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Virtus Bologna vs Varese at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Bologna and Varese for Serie A, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Virtus Bologna

1.09

1.63

Varese

7.5

2.59

Virtus Bologna HC

-14.5

-4.00

Varese HC

+14.5

4.00

Point Line

170.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Virtus Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

89

62

12

6

W 2

90

66

Jan 30

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

88

75

11

6

W 1

82

72

Jan 23

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

89

90

10

6

L 1

88

90

Jan 17

A

Red October Cantu

W

91

82

10

5

W 3

90

84

Jan 9

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

92

85

9

5

W 2

94

89

Dec 30

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

100

80

8

5

W 1

102

78

Dec 27

H

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

68

73

7

5

L 1

74

66

Dec 20

A

Universo Treviso

W

98

72

7

4

W 2

88

69

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Varese are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 14

H

Fortitudo Bologna

L

67

79

6

13

L 2

68

81

Feb 10

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

83

98

6

12

L 1

82

97

Feb 7

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

110

105

6

11

W 2

102

101

Feb 4

H

Enel Brindisi

W

76

74

5

11

W 1

79

69

Jan 31

A

Red October Cantu

L

82

97

4

11

L 6

81

99

Jan 27

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

83

108

4

10

L 5

85

108

Dec 27

H

Universo Treviso

L

79

80

4

9

L 4

71

76

Dec 20

A

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

77

86

4

8

L 3

83

87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Virtus Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Varese.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Varese and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Virtus Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Virtus Bologna (in the first graph) and by Varese in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Virtus Bologna will expected to score 87 points and the Varese 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 165.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Virtus Bologna

Varese

FG%

0.56

0.50

ASS

22.80

14.90

DRB

25.90

24.80

AST-TO

1.66

1.23

TRB

35.00

34.70

FTM

13.30

15.60

BL

2.60

1.80

FTA

17.70

20.80

PF-Fewer

20.20

21.30

ST

8.20

5.70

TO-Fewer

13.70

12.10

Ftper

0.75

0.75

ORBper

0.35

0.40

ORB

9.10

9.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Brindisi vs Trieste at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Brindisi and Trieste for Serie A, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Brindisi

1.35

1.48

Trieste

3.25

3.09

Brindisi HC

-6.5

-5.50

Trieste HC

+6.5

5.50

Point Line

166.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Brindisi are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

A

Universo Treviso

W

108

90

13

5

W 1

98

86

Feb 4

A

Openjobmetis Varese

L

74

76

12

5

L 1

69

76

Feb 1

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

79

70

12

4

W 1

80

75

Jan 17

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

L

77

89

11

4

L 1

83

90

Jan 3

H

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

74

73

11

3

W 1

76

77

Dec 27

A

Vanoli Cremona

L

94

96

10

3

L 2

88

92

Dec 19

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

L

81

92

10

2

L 1

82

90

Dec 13

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

88

82

10

1

W 10

96

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Trieste are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

H

Germani Basket Brescia

L

78

81

9

9

L 1

77

80

Jan 31

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

W

100

81

9

8

W 2

109

74

Jan 27

H

Openjobmetis Varese

W

108

83

8

8

W 1

100

83

Jan 24

H

Banco di Sardegna Sassari

L

82

103

7

8

L 1

80

90

Jan 17

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

101

80

7

7

W 4

94

77

Jan 10

A

Fortitudo Bologna

W

82

69

6

7

W 3

83

71

Jan 6

H

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

78

69

5

7

W 2

79

74

Dec 30

H

Universo Treviso

W

84

79

4

7

W 1

76

75

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Brindisi and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Trieste.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Trieste and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Brindisi.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Brindisi (in the first graph) and by Trieste in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Brindisi will expected to score 81 points and the Trieste 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Brindisi

Trieste

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

16.20

18.90

DRB

25.20

26.40

AST-TO

1.45

1.39

TRB

35.10

34.20

FTM

15.90

9.40

BL

2.60

2.40

FTA

20.90

14.10

PF-Fewer

17.60

18.10

ST

6.20

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.20

13.60

Ftper

0.76

0.66

ORBper

0.39

0.30

ORB

9.80

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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