2021 02 27 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 February 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Bilbao at 27 February 2021
Manresa vs Murcia at 27 February 2021
Real Betis vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021
Baskonia vs Fuenlabrada at 28 February 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Barcelona at 28 February 2021
Obradoiro vs Tenerife at 28 February 2021
Andorra vs Valencia at 28 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Real Madrid	1.33	4.43
San Pablo Burgos	3.35	1.29
Real Madrid HC	-6.5	7.50
San Pablo Burgos HC	+6.5	-7.50
Point Line	163.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 7	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	79	65	20	1	W 6	78	68
Feb 2	H	UCAM Murcia	W	98	87	19	1	W 5	95	87
Jan 31	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	81	80	18	1	W 4	79	84
Jan 24	H	MoraBanc Andorra	W	86	79	17	1	W 3	89	82
Jan 4	A	MoraBanc Andorra	W	75	69	16	1	W 2	78	72
Jan 2	A	Iberostar Tenerife	W	92	85	15	1	W 1	95	79
Dec 27	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	82	87	14	1	L 1	91	82
Dec 13	H	Unicaja	W	91	84	14	0	W 13	90	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Manresa	W	101	87	15	6	W 2	98	87
Jan 23	A	UCAM Murcia	W	81	75	14	6	W 1	78	75
Jan 17	H	Valencia Basket	L	78	83	13	6	L 1	80	78
Jan 9	A	Coosur Real Betis	W	85	76	13	5	W 5	83	81
Jan 3	H	Unicaja	W	95	83	12	5	W 4	94	79
Dec 29	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	86	11	5	W 3	90	90
Dec 27	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	95	78	10	5	W 2	93	76
Dec 19	H	Manresa	W	91	80	9	5	W 1	88	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 84 points and the San Pablo Burgos 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Real Madrid	San Pablo Burgos
FG%	0.49	0.51
ASS	14.60	15.10
DRB	21.40	22.00
AST-TO	1.21	0.99
TRB	30.00	32.20
FTM	10.60	15.30
BL	1.90	1.90
FTA	13.00	19.80
PF-Fewer	20.00	19.50
ST	7.00	7.20
TO-Fewer	12.10	15.20
Ftper	0.82	0.77
ORBper	0.40	0.47
ORB	8.50	10.30

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Gipuzkoa vs Bilbao at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Gipuzkoa	1.97	2.56
Bilbao	1.85	1.64
Gipuzkoa HC	+1.5	3.50
Bilbao HC	-1.5	-3.50
Point Line	159.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 10	H	Movistar Estudiantes	W	81	79	5	16	W 1	80	83
Jan 24	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	68	110	4	16	L 1	75	103
Jan 16	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	94	90	4	15	W 2	92	87
Jan 10	H	Iberostar Tenerife	W	89	87	3	15	W 1	92	80
Jan 2	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	L	80	81	2	15	L 4	75	85
Dec 29	H	Manresa	L	71	78	2	14	L 3	69	78
Dec 27	A	Valencia Basket	L	75	101	2	13	L 2	77	95
Dec 19	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	65	79	2	12	L 1	64	83

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 6	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	73	90	4	18	L 5	81	84
Jan 30	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	72	80	4	17	L 4	70	83
Jan 23	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	73	96	4	16	L 3	68	98
Jan 17	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	70	72	4	15	L 2	73	75
Jan 9	H	Valencia Basket	L	73	106	4	14	L 1	75	100
Jan 2	H	Acunsa GBC	W	81	80	4	13	W 1	76	88
Dec 29	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	86	96	3	13	L 2	88	89
Dec 27	H	Unicaja	L	75	91	3	12	L 1	74	87

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Bilbao in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 80 points and the Bilbao 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.

Var	Gipuzkoa	Bilbao
FG%	0.48	0.52
ASS	13.90	14.90
DRB	20.00	20.50
AST-TO	0.99	1.02
TRB	30.00	29.00
FTM	10.40	13.10
BL	1.90	2.20
FTA	14.60	17.00
PF-Fewer	20.00	21.50
ST	8.70	6.10
TO-Fewer	14.00	14.60
Ftper	0.71	0.77
ORBper	0.50	0.41
ORB	10.00	8.50

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Manresa vs Murcia at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Manresa	1.63	1.86
Murcia	2.3	2.17
Manresa HC	-2.5	-2.00
Murcia HC	+2.5	2.00
Point Line	169.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 6	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	77	83	10	12	L 2	75	87
Jan 31	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	87	101	10	11	L 1	89	93
Jan 26	A	UCAM Murcia	W	103	93	10	10	W 1	100	93
Jan 24	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	70	85	9	10	L 1	72	79
Jan 16	H	Unicaja	W	90	83	9	9	W 1	89	79
Jan 9	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	76	99	8	9	L 1	84	93
Dec 29	A	Acunsa GBC	W	78	71	8	8	W 1	74	78
Dec 27	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	64	71	7	8	L 2	62	75

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 7	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	84	91	8	13	L 5	82	88
Feb 2	A	Real Madrid	L	87	98	8	12	L 4	94	93
Jan 31	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	63	92	8	11	L 3	70	86
Jan 26	H	Manresa	L	93	103	8	10	L 2	90	103
Jan 23	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	75	81	8	9	L 1	77	75
Dec 27	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	93	76	8	8	W 1	91	78
Dec 23	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	93	104	7	8	L 2	91	101
Dec 20	A	Valencia Basket	L	78	89	7	7	L 1	80	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 83 points and the Murcia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Var	Manresa	Murcia
FG%	0.56	0.55
ASS	15.30	15.20
DRB	22.00	21.00
AST-TO	1.06	1.04
TRB	29.70	30.50
FTM	16.80	18.80
BL	3.30	2.50
FTA	22.40	23.90
PF-Fewer	21.00	20.70
ST	9.30	6.00
TO-Fewer	14.40	14.60
Ftper	0.75	0.78
ORBper	0.35	0.45
ORB	7.80	9.50

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Real Betis vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Real Betis	2.05	3.74
Zaragoza	1.78	1.36
Real Betis HC	+1.5	6.50
Zaragoza HC	-1.5	-6.50
Point Line	167.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 6	A	Valencia Basket	L	81	89	5	16	L 1	83	84
Jan 23	H	Unicaja	W	78	75	5	15	W 1	77	72
Jan 17	A	Baskonia	L	76	103	4	15	L 3	81	102
Jan 9	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	76	85	4	14	L 2	78	78
Jan 2	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	95	96	4	13	L 1	89	98
Dec 29	A	Unicaja	W	114	111	4	12	W 2	113	106
Dec 27	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	86	79	3	12	W 1	84	79
Dec 22	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	54	78	2	12	L 6	53	82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 6	H	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	83	70	9	13	W 2	81	72
Feb 3	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	79	73	8	13	W 1	78	76
Jan 31	A	Baskonia	L	61	89	7	13	L 1	65	88
Jan 23	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	73	7	12	W 3	90	77
Jan 16	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	105	85	6	12	W 2	103	85
Jan 2	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	95	5	12	W 1	94	101
Dec 27	H	Baskonia	L	89	92	4	12	L 2	95	91
Dec 20	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	91	102	4	11	L 1	89	105

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 82 points and the Zaragoza 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.

Var	Real Betis	Zaragoza
FG%	0.49	0.54
ASS	13.80	16.00
DRB	19.90	23.30
AST-TO	0.99	1.22
TRB	30.50	30.60
FTM	14.40	14.70
BL	2.60	2.60
FTA	19.80	20.20
PF-Fewer	20.70	20.50
ST	8.60	6.80
TO-Fewer	14.00	13.10
Ftper	0.73	0.73
ORBper	0.53	0.31
ORB	10.60	7.30

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Baskonia vs Fuenlabrada at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Baskonia	1.15	2.48
Fuenlabrada	5.4	1.68
Baskonia HC	-10.5	3.50
Fuenlabrada HC	+10.5	-3.50
Point Line	160.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 7	A	Iberostar Tenerife	W	81	79	17	5	W 2	84	73
Jan 31	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	89	61	16	5	W 1	83	62
Jan 24	A	Valencia Basket	L	61	83	15	5	L 1	63	78
Jan 17