BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 February 2021
Gipuzkoa vs Bilbao at 27 February 2021
Manresa vs Murcia at 27 February 2021
Real Betis vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021
Baskonia vs Fuenlabrada at 28 February 2021
Joventut Badalona vs Barcelona at 28 February 2021
Obradoiro vs Tenerife at 28 February 2021
Andorra vs Valencia at 28 February 2021
Before continue, please read the disclaimer.
Real Madrid vs San Pablo Burgos at 27 February 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and San Pablo Burgos for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Real Madrid |
1.33 |
4.43 |
San Pablo Burgos |
3.35 |
1.29 |
Real Madrid HC |
-6.5 |
7.50 |
San Pablo Burgos HC |
+6.5 |
-7.50 |
Point Line |
163.5 |
162.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Madrid are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 7 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
79 |
65 |
20 |
1 |
W 6 |
78 |
68 |
Feb 2 |
H |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
98 |
87 |
19 |
1 |
W 5 |
95 |
87 |
Jan 31 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
W |
81 |
80 |
18 |
1 |
W 4 |
79 |
84 |
Jan 24 |
H |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
86 |
79 |
17 |
1 |
W 3 |
89 |
82 |
Jan 4 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
W |
75 |
69 |
16 |
1 |
W 2 |
78 |
72 |
Jan 2 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
92 |
85 |
15 |
1 |
W 1 |
95 |
79 |
Dec 27 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
82 |
87 |
14 |
1 |
L 1 |
91 |
82 |
Dec 13 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
91 |
84 |
14 |
0 |
W 13 |
90 |
80 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of San Pablo Burgos are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Jan 31 |
A |
Manresa |
W |
101 |
87 |
15 |
6 |
W 2 |
98 |
87 |
Jan 23 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
81 |
75 |
14 |
6 |
W 1 |
78 |
75 |
Jan 17 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
78 |
83 |
13 |
6 |
L 1 |
80 |
78 |
Jan 9 |
A |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
85 |
76 |
13 |
5 |
W 5 |
83 |
81 |
Jan 3 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
95 |
83 |
12 |
5 |
W 4 |
94 |
79 |
Dec 29 |
H |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
96 |
86 |
11 |
5 |
W 3 |
90 |
90 |
Dec 27 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
W |
95 |
78 |
10 |
5 |
W 2 |
93 |
76 |
Dec 19 |
H |
Manresa |
W |
91 |
80 |
9 |
5 |
W 1 |
88 |
80 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Madrid and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by San Pablo Burgos.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by San Pablo Burgos and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Madrid.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Madrid (in the first graph) and by San Pablo Burgos in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Madrid will expected to score 84 points and the San Pablo Burgos 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Real Madrid |
San Pablo Burgos |
FG% |
0.49 |
0.51 |
ASS |
14.60 |
15.10 |
DRB |
21.40 |
22.00 |
AST-TO |
1.21 |
0.99 |
TRB |
30.00 |
32.20 |
FTM |
10.60 |
15.30 |
BL |
1.90 |
1.90 |
FTA |
13.00 |
19.80 |
PF-Fewer |
20.00 |
19.50 |
ST |
7.00 |
7.20 |
TO-Fewer |
12.10 |
15.20 |
Ftper |
0.82 |
0.77 |
ORBper |
0.40 |
0.47 |
ORB |
8.50 |
10.30 |
Go to Top
Gipuzkoa vs Bilbao at 27 February 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gipuzkoa and Bilbao for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Gipuzkoa |
1.97 |
2.56 |
Bilbao |
1.85 |
1.64 |
Gipuzkoa HC |
+1.5 |
3.50 |
Bilbao HC |
-1.5 |
-3.50 |
Point Line |
159.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gipuzkoa are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 10 |
H |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
81 |
79 |
5 |
16 |
W 1 |
80 |
83 |
Jan 24 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
68 |
110 |
4 |
16 |
L 1 |
75 |
103 |
Jan 16 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
W |
94 |
90 |
4 |
15 |
W 2 |
92 |
87 |
Jan 10 |
H |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
89 |
87 |
3 |
15 |
W 1 |
92 |
80 |
Jan 2 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
L |
80 |
81 |
2 |
15 |
L 4 |
75 |
85 |
Dec 29 |
H |
Manresa |
L |
71 |
78 |
2 |
14 |
L 3 |
69 |
78 |
Dec 27 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
75 |
101 |
2 |
13 |
L 2 |
77 |
95 |
Dec 19 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
65 |
79 |
2 |
12 |
L 1 |
64 |
83 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 6 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
73 |
90 |
4 |
18 |
L 5 |
81 |
84 |
Jan 30 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
L |
72 |
80 |
4 |
17 |
L 4 |
70 |
83 |
Jan 23 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
L |
73 |
96 |
4 |
16 |
L 3 |
68 |
98 |
Jan 17 |
A |
MoraBanc Andorra |
L |
70 |
72 |
4 |
15 |
L 2 |
73 |
75 |
Jan 9 |
H |
Valencia Basket |
L |
73 |
106 |
4 |
14 |
L 1 |
75 |
100 |
Jan 2 |
H |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
81 |
80 |
4 |
13 |
W 1 |
76 |
88 |
Dec 29 |
A |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
86 |
96 |
3 |
13 |
L 2 |
88 |
89 |
Dec 27 |
H |
Unicaja |
L |
75 |
91 |
3 |
12 |
L 1 |
74 |
87 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gipuzkoa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gipuzkoa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gipuzkoa (in the first graph) and by Bilbao in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gipuzkoa will expected to score 80 points and the Bilbao 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 162.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Gipuzkoa |
Bilbao |
FG% |
0.48 |
0.52 |
ASS |
13.90 |
14.90 |
DRB |
20.00 |
20.50 |
AST-TO |
0.99 |
1.02 |
TRB |
30.00 |
29.00 |
FTM |
10.40 |
13.10 |
BL |
1.90 |
2.20 |
FTA |
14.60 |
17.00 |
PF-Fewer |
20.00 |
21.50 |
ST |
8.70 |
6.10 |
TO-Fewer |
14.00 |
14.60 |
Ftper |
0.71 |
0.77 |
ORBper |
0.50 |
0.41 |
ORB |
10.00 |
8.50 |
Go to Top
Manresa vs Murcia at 27 February 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Manresa and Murcia for Liga ACB, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Manresa |
1.63 |
1.86 |
Murcia |
2.3 |
2.17 |
Manresa HC |
-2.5 |
-2.00 |
Murcia HC |
+2.5 |
2.00 |
Point Line |
169.5 |
164.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 6 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
77 |
83 |
10 |
12 |
L 2 |
75 |
87 |
Jan 31 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
87 |
101 |
10 |
11 |
L 1 |
89 |
93 |
Jan 26 |
A |
UCAM Murcia |
W |
103 |
93 |
10 |
10 |
W 1 |
100 |
93 |
Jan 24 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
L |
70 |
85 |
9 |
10 |
L 1 |
72 |
79 |
Jan 16 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
90 |
83 |
9 |
9 |
W 1 |
89 |
79 |
Jan 9 |
H |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
76 |
99 |
8 |
9 |
L 1 |
84 |
93 |
Dec 29 |
A |
Acunsa GBC |
W |
78 |
71 |
8 |
8 |
W 1 |
74 |
78 |
Dec 27 |
H |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
64 |
71 |
7 |
8 |
L 2 |
62 |
75 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 7 |
H |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
L |
84 |
91 |
8 |
13 |
L 5 |
82 |
88 |
Feb 2 |
A |
Real Madrid |
L |
87 |
98 |
8 |
12 |
L 4 |
94 |
93 |
Jan 31 |
A |
FC Barcelona Lassa |
L |
63 |
92 |
8 |
11 |
L 3 |
70 |
86 |
Jan 26 |
H |
Manresa |
L |
93 |
103 |
8 |
10 |
L 2 |
90 |
103 |
Jan 23 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
75 |
81 |
8 |
9 |
L 1 |
77 |
75 |
Dec 27 |
H |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
93 |
76 |
8 |
8 |
W 1 |
91 |
78 |
Dec 23 |
A |
Divina Seguros Joventut |
L |
93 |
104 |
7 |
8 |
L 2 |
91 |
101 |
Dec 20 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
78 |
89 |
7 |
7 |
L 1 |
80 |
84 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Murcia.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Murcia and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Manresa (in the first graph) and by Murcia in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Manresa will expected to score 83 points and the Murcia 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Manresa |
Murcia |
FG% |
0.56 |
0.55 |
ASS |
15.30 |
15.20 |
DRB |
22.00 |
21.00 |
AST-TO |
1.06 |
1.04 |
TRB |
29.70 |
30.50 |
FTM |
16.80 |
18.80 |
BL |
3.30 |
2.50 |
FTA |
22.40 |
23.90 |
PF-Fewer |
21.00 |
20.70 |
ST |
9.30 |
6.00 |
TO-Fewer |
14.40 |
14.60 |
Ftper |
0.75 |
0.78 |
ORBper |
0.35 |
0.45 |
ORB |
7.80 |
9.50 |
Go to Top
Real Betis vs Zaragoza at 28 February 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Real Betis and Zaragoza for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Real Betis |
2.05 |
3.74 |
Zaragoza |
1.78 |
1.36 |
Real Betis HC |
+1.5 |
6.50 |
Zaragoza HC |
-1.5 |
-6.50 |
Point Line |
167.5 |
160.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 6 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
81 |
89 |
5 |
16 |
L 1 |
83 |
84 |
Jan 23 |
H |
Unicaja |
W |
78 |
75 |
5 |
15 |
W 1 |
77 |
72 |
Jan 17 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
76 |
103 |
4 |
15 |
L 3 |
81 |
102 |
Jan 9 |
H |
San Pablo Burgos |
L |
76 |
85 |
4 |
14 |
L 2 |
78 |
78 |
Jan 2 |
A |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
L |
95 |
96 |
4 |
13 |
L 1 |
89 |
98 |
Dec 29 |
A |
Unicaja |
W |
114 |
111 |
4 |
12 |
W 2 |
113 |
106 |
Dec 27 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
86 |
79 |
3 |
12 |
W 1 |
84 |
79 |
Dec 22 |
A |
Herbalife Gran Canaria |
L |
54 |
78 |
2 |
12 |
L 6 |
53 |
82 |
The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 6 |
H |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
W |
83 |
70 |
9 |
13 |
W 2 |
81 |
72 |
Feb 3 |
A |
Movistar Estudiantes |
W |
79 |
73 |
8 |
13 |
W 1 |
78 |
76 |
Jan 31 |
A |
Baskonia |
L |
61 |
89 |
7 |
13 |
L 1 |
65 |
88 |
Jan 23 |
A |
RETAbet Bilbao Basket |
W |
96 |
73 |
7 |
12 |
W 3 |
90 |
77 |
Jan 16 |
H |
Montakit Fuenlabrada |
W |
105 |
85 |
6 |
12 |
W 2 |
103 |
85 |
Jan 2 |
H |
Coosur Real Betis |
W |
96 |
95 |
5 |
12 |
W 1 |
94 |
101 |
Dec 27 |
H |
Baskonia |
L |
89 |
92 |
4 |
12 |
L 2 |
95 |
91 |
Dec 20 |
A |
Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro |
L |
91 |
102 |
4 |
11 |
L 1 |
89 |
105 |
The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Real Betis (in the first graph) and by Zaragoza in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.
By applying the findings from the graphs above, Real Betis will expected to score 82 points and the Zaragoza 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 167.5 points.
Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.
Var |
Real Betis |
Zaragoza |
FG% |
0.49 |
0.54 |
ASS |
13.80 |
16.00 |
DRB |
19.90 |
23.30 |
AST-TO |
0.99 |
1.22 |
TRB |
30.50 |
30.60 |
FTM |
14.40 |
14.70 |
BL |
2.60 |
2.60 |
FTA |
19.80 |
20.20 |
PF-Fewer |
20.70 |
20.50 |
ST |
8.60 |
6.80 |
TO-Fewer |
14.00 |
13.10 |
Ftper |
0.73 |
0.73 |
ORBper |
0.53 |
0.31 |
ORB |
10.60 |
7.30 |
Go to Top
Baskonia vs Fuenlabrada at 28 February 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Baskonia and Fuenlabrada for Liga ACB, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :
Outcome |
Books |
Ours |
Baskonia |
1.15 |
2.48 |
Fuenlabrada |
5.4 |
1.68 |
Baskonia HC |
-10.5 |
3.50 |
Fuenlabrada HC |
+10.5 |
-3.50 |
Point Line |
160.5 |
159.00 |
We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Baskonia are:
gDate |
At |
Opponent |
WL |
Tm |
Opp |
W |
L |
Str |
aOff |
aDef |
Feb 7 |
A |
Iberostar Tenerife |
W |
81 |
79 |
17 |
5 |
W 2 |
84 |
73 |
Jan 31 |
H |
Tecnyconta Zaragoza |
W |
89 |
61 |
16 |
5 |
W 1 |
83 |
62 |
Jan 24 |
A |
Valencia Basket |
L |
61 |
83 |
15 |
5 |
L 1 |
63 |
78 |
Jan 17 |