2021 02 27 VTB United League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lokomotiv Kuban vs Enisey at 27 February 2021
Unics vs Nizhny Novgorod at 27 February 2021
Khimki vs Zielona Gora at 28 February 2021
Avtodor vs Minsk at 28 February 2021
Astana vs Kalev at 01 March 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Lokomotiv Kuban vs Enisey at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lokomotiv Kuban and Enisey for VTB United League, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Lokomotiv Kuban

1.1

1.17

Enisey

6.5

7.03

Lokomotiv Kuban HC

-12.5

-9.50

Enisey HC

+12.5

9.50

Point Line

168.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Lokomotiv Kuban are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 8

A

BC Khimki

W

92

90

9

6

W 1

91

85

Jan 31

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

85

90

8

6

L 1

97

87

Jan 16

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

94

73

8

5

W 1

94

73

Jan 9

A

Astana

L

82

86

7

5

L 2

76

91

Jan 3

H

BC Khimki

L

91

102

7

4

L 1

90

97

Dec 23

H

Tsmoki Minsk

W

77

76

7

3

W 2

75

84

Dec 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

96

81

6

3

W 1

109

78

Dec 5

A

Parma

L

81

84

5

3

L 1

84

87

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Enisey are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 10

H

CSKA Moscow

L

80

91

4

11

L 1

86

80

Feb 4

A

Astana

W

78

60

4

10

W 3

72

64

Feb 1

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

86

75

3

10

W 2

81

79

Jan 24

H

Astana

W

77

76

2

10

W 1

72

81

Jan 17

H

Parma

L

52

86

1

10

L 6

54

89

Jan 3

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

67

85

1

9

L 5

76

82

Dec 20

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

79

83

1

8

L 4

79

83

Dec 13

A

Avtodor

L

79

85

1

7

L 3

75

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Enisey.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Enisey and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Lokomotiv Kuban.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Lokomotiv Kuban (in the first graph) and by Enisey in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Lokomotiv Kuban will expected to score 87 points and the Enisey 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Lokomotiv Kuban

Enisey

FG%

0.54

0.51

ASS

21.10

14.90

DRB

26.10

20.90

AST-TO

1.77

0.97

TRB

34.40

28.70

FTM

17.70

16.90

BL

3.70

0.70

FTA

23.00

23.30

PF-Fewer

20.50

24.60

ST

5.70

5.70

TO-Fewer

11.90

15.30

Ftper

0.77

0.73

ORBper

0.32

0.37

ORB

8.30

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Unics vs Nizhny Novgorod at 27 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Unics and Nizhny Novgorod for VTB United League, which will take place on 27 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Unics

1.2

1.62

Nizhny Novgorod

4.35

2.62

Unics HC

-9.5

-4.00

Nizhny Novgorod HC

+9.5

4.00

Point Line

158.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Unics are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 10

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

59

58

13

4

W 8

67

56

Feb 7

A

Avtodor

W

110

97

12

4

W 7

104

96

Jan 30

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

76

66

11

4

W 6

74

73

Jan 23

A

Nizhny Novgorod

W

91

66

10

4

W 5

91

66

Jan 17

A

BC Khimki

W

93

87

9

4

W 4

92

82

Jan 9

A

Parma

W

76

69

8

4

W 3

78

71

Jan 6

H

Zielona Gora

W

65

64

7

4

W 2

62

62

Jan 3

H

Avtodor

W

94

65

6

4

W 1

89

65

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Nizhny Novgorod are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 11

H

Avtodor

W

86

80

8

6

W 2

81

80

Feb 7

A

Zielona Gora

W

97

93

7

6

W 1

93

90

Feb 2

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

78

6

6

L 5

83

75

Jan 23

H

UNICS

L

66

91

6

5

L 4

71

91

Jan 16

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

73

94

6

4

L 3

71

86

Jan 9

A

Tsmoki Minsk

L

76

77

6

3

L 2

74

85

Jan 3

H

CSKA Moscow

L

63

83

6

2

L 1

68

72

Dec 28

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

95

85

6

1

W 4

89

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Unics and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Nizhny Novgorod.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Nizhny Novgorod and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Unics.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Unics (in the first graph) and by Nizhny Novgorod in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Unics will expected to score 81 points and the Nizhny Novgorod 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Unics

Nizhny Novgorod

FG%

0.56

0.55

ASS

15.60

18.60

DRB

20.60

21.40

AST-TO

1.34

1.48

TRB

29.40

29.30

FTM

14.10

13.90

BL

1.70

1.80

FTA

18.10

19.10

PF-Fewer

21.80

24.10

ST

7.80

6.90

TO-Fewer

11.60

12.60

Ftper

0.78

0.73

ORBper

0.43

0.37

ORB

8.80

7.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Khimki vs Zielona Gora at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Khimki and Zielona Gora for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Khimki

1.44

1.32

Zielona Gora

2.75

4.17

Khimki HC

-5.5

-7.50

Zielona Gora HC

+5.5

7.50

Point Line

173.5

167.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Khimki are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 12

A

Astana

W

82

77

7

7

W 1

76

82

Feb 8

H

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

90

92

6

7

L 1

88

84

Feb 1

A

Parma

W

72

69

6

6

W 1

74

71

Jan 17

H

UNICS

L

87

93

5

6

L 1

94

93

Jan 3

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

W

102

91

5

5

W 2

99

83

Dec 26

H

Parma

W

103

83

4

5

W 1

106

86

Nov 22

A

UNICS

L

76

83

3

5

L 1

82

83

Nov 9

H

CSKA Moscow

W

86

78

3

4

W 1

92

68

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zielona Gora are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

H

Nizhny Novgorod

L

93

97

10

8

L 1

93

98

Feb 1

H

CSKA Moscow

W

93

90

10

7

W 4

100

79

Jan 29

A

Kalev/Cramo

W

86

79

9

7

W 3

81

84

Jan 23

H

Avtodor

W

77

64

8

7

W 2

73

64

Jan 17

A

Tsmoki Minsk

W

80

75

7

7

W 1

78

83

Jan 6

A

UNICS

L

64

65

6

7

L 1

69

65

Dec 23

A

Avtodor

W

91

90

6

6

W 3

86

90

Dec 20

A

Parma

W

85

79

5

6

W 2

88

82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Khimki and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zielona Gora.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zielona Gora and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Khimki.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Khimki (in the first graph) and by Zielona Gora in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Khimki will expected to score 85 points and the Zielona Gora 85 points. The total points line estimated to be at 170.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Khimki

Zielona Gora

FG%

0.53

0.58

ASS

20.60

17.90

DRB

21.80

21.20

AST-TO

1.84

1.34

TRB

31.10

30.40

FTM

17.60

13.90

BL

3.10

2.30

FTA

22.10

18.80

PF-Fewer

22.60

21.60

ST

6.80

6.80

TO-Fewer

11.20

13.40

Ftper

0.79

0.74

ORBper

0.43

0.43

ORB

9.30

9.20


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Avtodor vs Minsk at 28 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Avtodor and Minsk for VTB United League, which will take place on 28 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Avtodor

1.25

1.07

Minsk

3.85

14.61

Avtodor HC

-8.5

-11.50

Minsk HC

+8.5

11.50

Point Line

164.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Avtodor are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 11

A

Nizhny Novgorod

L

80

86

7

9

L 2

80

86

Feb 7

H

UNICS

L

97

110

7

8

L 1

105

110

Jan 31

A

Astana

W

92

83

7

7

W 1

86

88

Jan 23

A

Zielona Gora

L

64

77

6

7

L 2

61

74

Jan 18

H

CSKA Moscow

L

82

98

6

6

L 1

88

86

Jan 14

H

Kalev/Cramo

W

87

61

6

5

W 1

82

64

Jan 10

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

71

97

5

5

L 3

81

93

Jan 3

A

UNICS

L

65

94

5

4

L 2

70

94

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Minsk are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 7

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

73

99

2

12

L 4

83

95

Jan 30

H

UNICS

L

66

76

2

11

L 3

71

76

Jan 24

H

Kalev/Cramo

L

72

80

2

10

L 2

68

85

Jan 17

H

Zielona Gora

L

75

80

2

9

L 1

72

77

Jan 9

H

Nizhny Novgorod

W

77

76

2

8

W 1

77

76

Dec 23

A

Lokomotiv Kuban

L

76

77

1

8

L 8

74

70

Dec 20

A

UNICS

L

77

83

1

7

L 7

83

83

Dec 12

H

Parma

L

65

78

1

6

L 6

67

81

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Avtodor and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Minsk.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Minsk and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Avtodor.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Avtodor (in the first graph) and by Minsk in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Avtodor will expected to score 84 points and the Minsk 80 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Avtodor

Minsk

FG%

0.52

0.50

ASS

16.40

15.40

DRB

23.30

20.30

AST-TO

1.22

1.09

TRB

32.90

29.10

FTM

15.70

11.50

BL

2.50

1.60

FTA

20.60

16.00

PF-Fewer

20.80

21.20

ST

6.00

6.00

TO-Fewer

13.40

14.10

Ftper

0.76

0.72

ORBper

0.41

0.44

ORB

9.60

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Astana vs Kalev at 01 March 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Astana and Kalev for VTB United League, which will take place on 01 March 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Astana

1.44

1.29

Kalev

2.7

4.39

Astana HC

-4.5

-7.50

Kalev HC

+4.5

7.50

Point Line

163.5

163.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Astana are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 12

H

BC Khimki

L

77

82

4

11

L 4

76

78

Feb 4

H

Enisey

L

60

78

4

10

L 3

58

85

Jan 31

H

Avtodor

L

83

92

4

9

L 2

79

91

Jan 24

A

Enisey

L

76

77

4

8

L 1

74

84

Jan 9

H